With a peace deal signed Saturday, the US occupation of Afghanistan has entered the beginning of the end, at least ideally. If all goes well, all American troops will be out of Afghanistan within 14 months.
The ink on the paper is hardly dry, but US officials are already looking to define the terms of withdrawing from the deal, saying the pullout is conditional on the Taliban meeting many commitments along the way.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is already predicting a “rocky and bumpy” future in Afghanistan, which seems like it will give the US plenty of pretexts to back out of the peace deal down the line if they decide not to withdraw after all.
The plan has always been to cut US troop levels in the lead-up to the 2020 election, and it will likely be seen as preferable by the administration to do this as part of a broader deal, even if they don’t ultimately intend to finish the pullout.
Rumors abound of a secret annex to the peace deal allowing the US to keep some troops in Afghanistan, and while the Pentagon denies knowledge of this, there has yet to be any conclusive proof that secret annexes don’t exist.
Lets Hope it gets done! The Deep State hates the idea.
Crossing my fingers.
Nope, it depends on the US keeping its word. Just ask the Iranians.
Somewhere up there, Sitting Bull has his face in his hands muttering, “When will they learn…”
Several hundred promises made, but not one kept! As one native person said: White man made many promises, but only kept one–he promised to take the land and took it. Sad!
Forked-tongues still abound.
it`s not a question of “if Taliban Keeps Commitments”
The US has a long track record of breaking agreements.
The US government had virtually NO HISTORY of ever KEEPING its commitments.
Agree.
Backing out of the peace deal last September makes more sense now. It’s all about timing and September wasn’t close enough to election time. This has to be ongoing at election time if it’s going to be used right by Trump. He can’t have the Taliban overrunning our puppet government before election time and he can’t send troops back in to stop the Taliban from overrunning our puppet government before election time. The anti-war rhetoric should be flowing from Trump’s mouth from here on in and his followers will eat it up.
So very clever timing with respect to the election. I suspect outside the beltway this is massively popular.
To me it does not matter how sincere or insincere these intended reductions are. As long as they continue and are not reversed every progressive person ought to support them, ask for a faster pace, and for monthly reports on troop strengths.
If everyone just smoked a little of that high-grade opium the USA seems Ok with coming from Afghanistan, nobody would care about our poorly camouflaged intransigence.
“Seems ok with?” Those poppy fields are being grown by the CIA, harvested by the CIA, exported by the CIA, turned into heroin by the CIA, and reimported into the US by the CIA (or its hired minions).
But the CIA and its mercenaries will stay to protect their opium poppies….count on it.
It’s an election year. Trump wants to crow “promises kept”.
He will claim ending America’s longest war,
and dodging entanglements in Syria.
The MIC will be satisfied with ramping up rearmament for China and Russia.
All is well, at least till after November.
Tulsi, please switch to a third party! The Dems fear and despise you.
I believe the terrorists the Taliban are allegedly harboring will be subsumed into Iran’s Quds forces or simply be allowed their own conclave or settlement within Iran adjacent to Afghanistan.
The four-thousand US troops will probably be reassigned to Iraq. This is our peace dividend.
The Iran war is probably on for April or May, unless the coronavirus usurps the military phase. I’ll think we’ll have engagement in Iran, Syria, and Iraq simultaneously. A convenient area to construct a lengthy oil pipeline to Israel.
This will be an existential sequence of events for regional Kurdish populations.
This is what Esper said about what he would like to do with those Afghanistan troops:
“I would like to do that because what I want to do is reallocate forces to” the Asia-Pacific region, he said at the Ronald Reagan National Defense Forum in December. He said he wants to do the same thing in the Mideast, Africa and Europe.
“All of these places where I can free up troops where I could either bring them home to allow them to rest and refit and retrain or/and then reallocate them (to the Asia-Pacific region) to compete with the Chinese, to reassure our allies, to conduct exercises and training,” he said.
There are bigger and better wars to be had.
I’m not aware of terrorists being harbored by the Taliban. They have no connection to al Qaeda nor ISIS, there is no indication that they ever collaborated or protect one another. We imported the terrorists to Afghanistan. The Taliban have no history of international terrorism and no ability to strike outside of Afghanistan. The enemies we’ve made of the locals seem intent on expelling US troops. Iran and the Taliban are regional opponents. Please explain.
I never confirmed, only alleged. I never said they had an association with Al Qaeda or ISIS. Since the peace treaty broke down this morning, PST, we’re back to status quo conditions.
The Taliban are considered terrorists by your western media friends. The only support from other alleged terror groups would be the Haqqani network that I’m aware of. Throw in some elements of Pakistan’s ISI and few might know the true nature and breadth of groups supporting them.
The Taliban and Iran have recently engaged in talks per an article by MK Bhadrakumar. My contention is that Iran war is set for an April-May 2020 start but I digress.
I don’t think the Taliban has any inclination to strike outside Afghanistan. I believe they’ll assist Iran in thwarting an American move from Iran’s eastern flank.
“My contention is that Iran war is set for an April-May 2020”
My guess is you’re off by half a decade, give or take a year.
I sincerely hope it doesn’t occur but I hear things.
It feels rocky and bumpy to me too. But will likely get done.
I expect that whoever won the Presidency in ’16 would be trying to make this treaty as construction on the TAPI oil pipeline has been completed from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan (announced Feb ’18).
-https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkmenistan-afghanistan-gas-pipeline/leaders-launch-start-of-afghan-section-of-tapi-gas-pipeline-idUSKCN1G70PU
The project will allow Turkmen oil to be delivered via the Khyber Pass through Afghanistan into Pakistan and on to India (and southern China). Also, to-be-tapped deposits of lithium and copper, plus other goods and resources, will traverse new trade lanes from Central to South Asia.
The US has been in negotiations with the Taliban and Afghan government regarding the Afghanistan construction component over an agreement on security and transit fees.
Domination of the Khyber Pass is the principal reason for the occupation. We’ve spent 18 years clearing and securing a path through Afghanistan; this project is the “payoff”. It is a business plan the PNAC neoconservatives envisioned would help bring a century of prosperity to the US – similar to Soviet designs and those of about every world super-power through history.
The timeline for withdrawal of US troops depends on the Afghan government/Taliban’s ability to protect the project from sabotage. I expect the US to demand some troops, contractors and special forces stay indefinitely to defend it. Troop status will likely be the biggest hurdle but the US is eager to have this project completed and the Afghanis eager to collect fees.