Turkey continues to step up fighting in northern Syria, running up against Russian forces, and giving the appearance of an imminent war in the Idlib Province. Turkey’s willingness to escalate seems to have been picked up by US encouragement, and now Turkey seems to be leading the call to get the US dragged into this conflict as well.
US interests in the Idlib Province are virtually non-existent. Any US-backed rebels that were once there have been wiped out, or aligned to some Islamist group long ago. Arguments for intervention are that Idlib is becoming a flashpoint between Russia and Turkey.
Which is more Turkey’s problem than America’s though Turkey is suggesting that they are in talks with the US on sending Patriot missiles to Idlib to contest Russian warplanes, and are requesting US warplanes start patrolling the areas around Idlib.
The US hasn’t committed to this yet, and while many officials seem to believe getting sucked into the conflict is inevitable, it’s not clear how many are eager to try to back Turkish aggression in Idlib, especially just months after Turkey’s invasions of northeast Syria forced major changes to US policy there.
Now is the time for the Dem POTUS hopefuls to gain a pair and speak out before this Turkish meddling really escalates and the Deep State makes its own decisions.
DNC is deep state.
That’s not the script; they’re all supposed to dump on Bloomberg and say nothing, let alone debate, anything of consequence.
History warns: beware the tail that wags the dog.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
US interests are Israeli interests, period. They want Syria partitioned and Assad taken out, and Iran will be taken out also. Trump is the man to do it.
Yeh right and get plenty of body bags ready for the Phony tough & grazy brave marines another Vietnam in the making.
Naw, Trump set up Erdogan to do it.
Now Erdogan’s trying to pass the buck back.
There is just one problem. They dare not. Trying every angle. Trying to make Saudis fire first shot, to then come in defense. But Saudis are wiggling out. They know their own vulnerabilities. Tankers sabotage, burning up Saudi oil facilities, Iraqi bombings and an assassination. What else is left to do?
Trump or anybody else. Attacking Iran directly would be VERY risky. Not just to the regional states, wealthy states with much to lose, but US as well. Any damage to Iran by US would be answered. US would then be forced to escalate. More unknowns, and potential risks. Every possible angle has been tried to create a cause. A cause to establish a link between Iran and a very nefarious act — a prima facie evidence of guilt, and a reason for a fast and decisive strike.
There is a great deal of hesitation, and rightly so. US could save itself a great deal of trouble and money if Iran saga is put to rest. It would be a good move, as it would be unforced.
But US politics and interests of Israel are so co-mingled, and cannot be decoupled. This is why no credible voices emerged to explore alternatives. This is why US is lunging forward.
Hope that another brilliant set up would do it. Yet hoping nothing will come of it.
I have never seen such a bravado with so little conviction.
Turkey has been attacking the forces backed by the US. Now suddenly, it is the US and Turkey against Russia?
It seems that any excuse for war in Syria will do, so long as it has the US fighting in Syria.
“… requesting US warplanes start patrolling the areas around Idlib.”
Hahahahaha! Yeah, that’s gonna happen. (That said, the request for Patriots is veeery tempting! A rush sale could happen. … But once the pre-payment check clears, that’s all that would happen.)
Donald Trump wants to get reelected.
It is all a noise. I will wait till fog of different colors clears. We saw similar dance with Turkey-Syria-Kurds-US-Russia. We know how that ended.
Sounds like a neocon dream.
But let us be realistic.
US is already in Idlib. US and UK are funding White Helmets, intelligence/spec ops outfit. White Helmets control HTS, a collection of foreign fighters that could not care less who rules in Syria.
HTS is the whip that holds control of a a myriad Islamic fighters thar went to Idlib following their defeat elsewhere. Turkey-Iran-Russia had a plan agreed on back in Sochi to create check-points through which populace trapped in Idlib would escape, militants that had a change of heart to get back into civilians and go home. And for larger militant groups to accept Turkey command, uniform and new commanders. It all worked to a point — the point of large militant groups accepting Turkey command.
We must not speak of these militants as under Turkish control, because that is PRECISELY the problem — they are not. They are still under HTS, that is OUR control.
As said before, Turkey did not succeed in peeling off militants from HTS — be that from fearing HTS, be that because of money group leaders are receiving from HTS, be that not trusting Turkey because of Russian-Iranian ties.
This appears to be a new approach. Syrian Army is moving in. This will cause increase in refugees, losses to militants and their families — and show all the impotence of HTS. In fact, Turkey already accomplished some of it — inadvertently or not, retreat of Islamic groups left HTS directly in the path of Syrian Army.
There are many scenarios here, but the sooner these garden variety militants accept Turkish command, the better. That would leave HTS fighters with no locals to hide behind, and Western mission of staying in Idlib , impossible.
But leaders of these groups are loathe to take Turkey’s protection — as good as it will be for their fighters and their families — as they must give up command, accept commission in Turkish militant ranks and be shipped to another location. Look at all the groups OUTSIDE Idlid that took Turkish offer, and are uniformed, under Turkish commander. This is what HTS has to offer To them — pay these commanders premium NOT to accept Turkey offer.
But now, clear danger to this militants is the Syrian Army advancement. Turkey is being their one and only savior. Not HTS, not US not UK. It is one thing for US/UK to “feel” for refugees, to elevate Islamic militants into the honorable role of “rebels” — but it will be harder to take an active role in defending these groups, of which some have horrible reputation.
This can end with groups accepting Turkey’s terms, leaving HTS and Helmets isolated, to be discretely dealt with — US/UK have plenty of global assignments for them.
Or it can end with HTS, using some of their more loyal groups, attacking Turkey, which does not have much force presence in Idlib yet. Or some compromise. But leaving HTS/Helmets in Idlib to influence via intimidation the political process in the province would be bad.
If other examples of Turkey’s conversion of militants into their forces is any example — once militants accept Turkish commander and uniforms, former local government officials take over. Under such a schema, HTS would lose all influence. These former officials ousted by militants, and militant behavior to local population — are massive supporters of Damascus government Another reason why HRS and its Western minders would not like that.
This is West’s last stand in Syria. After losing Kurds as levers of power in Syria, now it is a less palatable, but one and only cause of heroic Islamic militants and Al-Qaeda to boot.
Add to this Turkey’s internal politics — and things get clearer. More parties were created with our money to try to oust Erdogan. Their main tune — refugees, the hottest of hot buttons. Erdogan is therefore moving into action to stop the Syrian offensive that is creating refugees. But in fact, he needs to solve militant loyalty problem —and offensive will end, giving him victory. That would be no different than current rather successful presence in Afrin and birder region to Al-Bab.
Other then oil wells vaguely defined mission, Syria would not have an obstacle in moving ahead politically. But for as long as there is money — ours that is — to feed dozens of militant groups and their families, create parties, fund old ones, no problem. Party goes on. Add to this feeding thousands upon thousands of “civil societies”, media, artists, students, and NGO’s in Syria, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, entire Gulf, North Africa, Southern and Eastern Europe, Russia, China, the entire South East Asia, Africa, Latin America… We can easily renew our entire infrastructure, feed cradle to grave several states, give free education and health care, and some dignity to veterans. We could. But our betters think otherwise. They want to control the world, all oceans, the entire atmosphere. Soon, space will be not large enough to accommodate anybody else.
Let us see if our Space Force makes a debut in Idlib.
Actually, the one last line could have done the entire post!
I wish it were true. Since today even the mist reputable and renowned analysts do not get it — what is there to do, but to TRY point out the lazy simplifications. No, Turkey and HRS are not allies. HTS does not grow money in trees, nor does it have arms factories, yet it has both. No, Islamist militants collection in Idlib is not under Turkish command. Some of them pretended, taking both HTS and Turkish money.
This is the crux of the problem. For as long as Western outfit White Helmets serves as a conduit of money and arms, getting it under humanitarian supplies — HTS can twist arms of assorted militants. The real ace in the sleeve are refugees.
UN dutifully spreads lies about the magnitude of refugees on the move. This is what rattles Turkey, and Erdogan opposition is all over “weak” Erdogan for not stopping refugee flight.
Syria’s last chapter of the regime change failed plan is now hinging on easing HTS and their Western buddies, the Helmets, out.
That can happen IF Turkey forces militant groups to switch alliance. Not a simple task. I know for a fact that a group called Al-Zinke, is standing firm with HTS, even though part if the group split a year ago and went to Turkey. CIA initially funded that group. It is famous for beheading a boy and recording the deed. One of those things one cannot easily forget.
This is why it does not help using bumper stickers. The lack of understanding of the problem is massive.
HRS? That’s a new acronym.
In any case, Turkey knows what kind of people they sponsored to attack Syria, all now fled to Idlib.
The last thing Turkey wants are the militant families now become refugees. No-one really wants them.
The Grayzone/Pushback with Aaron Maté
Turkey, US protect Al Qaeda in Idlib and worsen Syria’s suffering
Guest: Scott Ritter, former UN Weapons Inspector and Marine Corps Intelligence Officer.
By all means let’s get involved in yet another morass.
this morass is of uncle sanuel’s making.
No arguement from me.
Be a nice distraction if COVID-19 breaks out in the U.S. as the election cycle rages.
Reagan had HIV now Trump has COVID-19, coincidence or chemical warfare?
Biological warfare at this 5G warfare level is hard to tease out from the existing background pathogen noise.
Plausible deniability and all.
The potential giveaway is the desire for social panic and destruction over the real danger of COVID-19. COVID-19 isn’t that dangerous.
2000-8000 people are estimated to die every year of colds and flu in tiny Canada, a nation of 34 million souls. COVID-19 has killed 2900 Chinese in three months in that nation of 1.4 billion people.
China obliterated its economy over a cold, an action that will kill far more people than the virus ever could.
The U.S. could be induced into similar socially destructive social auto-immune response next.
Colds and flu kill with a cytokine storm, when the immune system is kind of hyperlooped into releasing and releasing immune response proteins (signals) until the body’s own immune system kills the patient.
The stock market collapse over a spreading cold, for example. The algos just went wild. Just wait for the social-political storm of the faux progressives figure pandemic panic can take down Trump..
I have to say that’s some drop in the market over this, whatever “this” is. Definitely seems to be an over reaction. Reminds me of the pig flu in the 70’s where they had everyone go to the local fire hall to get an immunized and I think a lot of people got sick from the injection if I remember right. I was only like 12 years old at the time.
Also and interesting parallel on both Reagan and Trump not wanting to respond. Trump says the market’s fine everything is under control and down another 1,000 it goes lol.
Sorry for the delayed reply; busy week.
Yeah, Trump seems to be taking cues from past Presidents, Reagan in particular he seems to like.
Reagan also had a stock market crash in 1987, but that was near the end of his Presidency. The ‘trade war’ opponent then was Germany, not China; something about Germany undervaluing its Mark.
Week one of the Fe 2020 crash was the COVID-19 correction. Everyone was kind of expecting a correction at that point, COVID-19 became the pretext, goosed by China conveniently imploding its economy over a cold.
Week two was the Bernie Crash, when it seemed Bernie might be a contender in the Democratic caucuses. Biden won Super Tuesday, but until Bernie is done, moreso than even COVID-19, markets may well stay in flux.
Not sure what Week three will bring. COVID-19 is growing stale as a panic drill. You know a viral movement is over when the MSM picks it up.
Meanwhile the fear has been put into any centrist thinking to vote Bernie just for kicks, as the stock market floated a lot of middle class boats still able to float.
stupidity. Unprepared for a “REAL” disaster. (Idk what to do so Im putting the dumbest moron besides me in charge, and he will handle the censorship) so the dems wont make up another “hoax” (Id laugh, but its marxist and scary)
Let’s see – Turkey is in Syria for what reason again? Russia is there, I know at Syria’s request. Which dog in that fight is ours?
The puppy in the bombed-out window.
“”Turkey wants US warplanes, Patriot missiles in Idlib””
already there. just keep your eyes peeled while uncle samuel airlifts ISIS terrorist commanders to safety.
This is exactly what needs to happen. White Helmets, and their local front, HTS must be in the process of redefining.
We are yet to see any evidence of a resolution. Or even a motion.
The old cards are on the table, snd everybody knows them. Militant groups have a choice — accept Turkey’s control, or trust HTS and its Western backers will protect them, so no need whatsoever to turn themselves over to Turkey. Accepting Turkey’s terms was easy to hundreds of so Free Syrian Army groups as they were ditched by their sponsors, mostly US. They were losing to ISIS and Kurds, their families displaced by both. They had every incentive to accept Turkey’s control. First, a paycheck. And then a possibility of ousting ISIS and Kurds and getting their homes back — was a powerful incentive.
For groups in Idlib — not so much. They were paid by Western money through HTS. They have all the Western propaganda support. They have a tool — refugees. Getting them going would not be hard. The only problem — Syrian offensive. And not knowing how far it could go — is sawing the seeds of fear. Militants do not believe that US would come in to stop Damascus. And with that risk — Turkey offer may be more attractive today. But to get protection — militants would have to accept Turkish commanders, no group loyalty, mo independence.
I have not seen any evidence yet that Turkey is making progress. Militants want protection, but not giving up control. It is HTS/Helmets/US/UK move.
Turkey can always increase force presence and be enforcers of peace in Idlib, making groups irrelevant.
Whichever we look at it — HTS needs to go into never-never land. And if militant groups cease to rely on HTS — its relevance to West will lose value.
So is this where Erdogan shoots down another Russian fighter and NATO ignores him?
Its a little early in the year for roast Turkey, but OK.