Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that a military operation in northwest Syria to expel Syrian forces from Idlib is only “a matter of time,” as Turkey continues to send more troops into the area.
Turkey has launched multiple attacks against the Syrian military in the past month, mostly to try to slow Syrian military advances against al-Qaeda. Erdogan has repeatedly demanded Syria abandon the Idlib Province to the Islamist groups, and now intends to try to directly force this.
Erdogan presented this new war as necessary because talks with Russia failed to get them to expel Syria from this Syrian province. Russia, however, is warning Turkey against trying to impose a military solution in northwest Syria.
Turkey is trying to present operations in support of al-Qaeda’s territorial control as a humanitarian necessity, and Syria’s fighting as endangering civilians.
Gotta luvit.. Has Erdogan.gone full gehaddi? Full AL Qeada…????? WTF Is NATO going to do about this *fine mess” that all these guys have cooked up. Or should I say kooked up? And who exactly is king kook in this fiasco??
This has all the makings for the start of a world war.
Excellent analysis by Former UN weapons inspector, Scott Ritter.
Turkey faces strategic defeat in Idlib after failing to live up to its commitments on Syria.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/481197-turkey-idlib-syria-sochi-agreement/
I swear to god if we get into a war to help the crazy Erdogan!
well, it IS a NATO nation, so we’d be treaty-bound to come to their aid …
If they were attacked…. Not if they are the ones doing the attacking. Not that our Hawks wouldn’t claim that Turkey being attacked while invading Syria wasn’t aggression by Syria/Russia…
Don’t think either Dems or Repubs really want to try and convince the public that they need too defend Turkey from assault by the nation they have invaded.
Not so. The treaty leaves it to each member government to decide how to respond to an attack. The republican senator at the time it was drafted deliberately did not want their hands tied in iffy scenarios.
“Turkey has launched multiple attacks against the Syrian military in the past month, mostly to try to slow Syrian military advances against al-Qaeda”
At one time we threatened to bomb the sh*t out of anyone giving support to terrorist groups.
Turned out Jabhat al-Nusra was just another name for al-CIAda. We would be bombing the sh*t out of ourselves.
Yes, and the Turkish help to them started as allowing the CIA to use bases in Turkey to do that, the way the DoD used bases in Jordan to do the same.
This doesn’t make a lot of sense. Turkey would never confront Russia without the full support of Uncle Sam. Is the Pentagon ready to go the mat and risk all those cushy pensions? I have my doubts.
Whatever game is being played, 100% sure it is related to British/US intelligence/special ops outfit called White Helmets, and their militant arm, HTS. But this militant arm is nothing without assorted Islamic militants carted off to Idlib in the course of the war.
When report says Syria is bombing Turkish supported militants, it is not really true. ONLY Turkish supported/controlled militants are outside Idlib and its supposedly demilitarized zone. For example, one of the particularly nasty militant group, Al-Zinke, played games with Turkey a year ago. Declared desire to accept Turkey’s control, got support and money, but the majority of the group went back under HTS.
The assumption that these are Turkey controlled groups is dead wrong. Groups are under HTS, essentially UK/US controlled. Turkey does not allow groups that come under their control to continue having separate leadership. They get uniforms and get new commanders.
None if this happened in Idlib as hoped. Turkey sealed off access to its borders. Will these groups remain under HTS or abandon it — hard to tell. You can bet anything that their minders are telling them to not cave in to Turkey demands, as in the end — they will negotiate a way to stay in Idlib and their Al-Qaeda status will be “forgotten”. Now that West lost Kurds as a lever of control in Syria post-war settlement — they have to hang on to Idlib.
And the ONLY way to hang in to the province is by making sure all those militants collected in Idlib stay loyal to HTS. This is why Turkey was unsuccessful in getting those groups exit via checkpoints as hoped.
Now plan B or C. Whatever it is, it is not being shared. It is possible that Turkey will bring more forces, and in the name of defending them, take control over province — isolating HTS
Most reports are WRONG assuming that it is HTS being defended. Or assuming that FSA iin Idlib are Turkish controlled.
No and no. Most of FSA is under Turkish control, WELL OUTSIDE Idlib. Those that stayed in — are under HRS control. It is hard to say what will have to happen for those groups to accept Turkey command. May be now that they lost territory and men — will rethink the value of Western support under HTS.
It’s not going to happen. Erdoscam will back off.
Then it is only a matter of time before Russia gets drawn in – and everyone else.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Russia controls the airspace above Idlib province. It’s not the facts on the ground that matter, it’s the facts in the air. Without air support, Erdogan’s armored vehicles and tanks are sitting ducks, simple as that. It’s “only a matter of time” before they’ll be beating a hasty retreat back to Turkey.
Erdogan faced down a military coup back in 2016 arresting hundreds of officers. No chance he will survive the next one after handing them a major defeat in Idlib. The presumptive sultan may not be long for this world.
Calm your horses. There will be no war broadcasted on your Telly. Turkey will go away once Russia sweetens the pot.
Erdogan has repeatedly demanded Syria abandon the Idlib Province to the Islamist groups, and now intends to try to directly force this.”
This is an example of when it matters most to understand Russia’s real interests in Syria, rather than the interests the West imputes to them based on its own way of thinking.
Russia is NOT doing all of this just to safeguard the rusted out navy base it did not even use for twenty years, until this got going. Nor the small and little used air base. That is Western thinking, arising from Western interest in having bases at the other end of its sea power.
Russia is doing this because of its deep concerns about Islamic fundamentalist jihadi forces that might get in to Russia Muslim south. Russia is fighting them in Syria so as not to have to fight them (again) in Chechnya or environs.
There is absolutely NO WAY Russia will ever allow the whole of Idlib Province to become some sort of fundamentalist-stan, even if it is allied with Turkey only to keep out Kurds. Russia will not listen. This is the real “national interest” they are there to defend, and they are not going to give it up.
Erdogan is walking into a buzz saw here. He’s thinking about Kurds not going near Turkey, and Russia is thinking about jihadis going nearer to Russia.