The Syrian government is continuing to make gains in the Aleppo Province. Backed by airstrikes, they’ve sacked a number of small powers and villages in the province’s west, and are close to having totally secured the entire province for the first time in many years.
The last major rebel territory in Syria was centered around Idlib Province, and included rebel-held territory around the Aleppo-Idlib border. Turkey’s allies were mostly in Aleppo, while al-Qaeda-seized the bulk of Idlib in rebel infighting.
These remote enclaves are important because Aleppo city, the financial capital of Syria, has remained in range of rebel artillery fire throughout the year, and this is the first time it is indicated that Syria might be able to secure a buffer zone.
Turkey is looking to stop this substantial Syrian win by pushing for negotiations with Russia. President Erdogan has threatened war with Syria spanning the entire nation, and seems to believe they can get Russia to do something to return to the status quo to avoid such a fight.
“sacked”
Turkey also launched a powerful counter attack on Twitter. Israel would have joined them, but it’s speculated that Netanyahu lost his password. This, undoubtedly contributed to the lack of success experienced by the Idlib Hipsters.
Ditz forgot to add President Assad’s response to Erdo: the Syrian Army will continue liberating Idlib no matter what empty noises are made “up north”. Ditz also forgot to mention that Russia has said it will support the Syrian campaign in full. Since even noted terrorist supporter Jihadi Julian Röpcke of Bild is dismissive of Erdo’s blather, it’s rather strange that Ditz is so forgetful. It reminds me of how in 2016 Ditz kept repeating in every article that Aleppo was destroyed and of no value to anybody.
I have given up on such lapses. Such as calling these Islamist groups — rebels. And continuously avoiding the issue of funding.
There is, however, one very important distinction being lost all the time. The militants in Aleppo province in buffer zone ARE NOT TURKISH SUPPORTED MILITANTS, This is what Russia said — that Turkey could not SEPARATE MILITANTS from HTS. Militants that walked through checkpoints to Turkish side, were incorporated into special units, their leaders removed, and orders taken from Turkey appointed commanders. There is no more group loyalty and they all wear same uniforms. The groups we are talking about are NOT under Turkish control. They are under HTS control, paid by HTS, even though they made quite a pitch for Turkish money as well,
At present, HTS is not funded by anyone in the region as far as I know — so the only money they have is through funding US and UK are providing to White Helmets. HTS may be hurting for money, and smuggling through Afrin has been cut off.
Now, Turkey has sealed the passage towards its border — hermetically. No matter what happens, there will be no refugees pouring out of Idlib into Turkey.
So, here are the positions. Turkey wants militants to stop following HTS orders, and accept Turkey command. Turkey does not want refugees, therefore, militants and their families will be protected by several options, such as: leave Idlib to be resettled in Syria under Turkish command. Resettle outside Syria with Turkish bases in Iraq or Libya, or stay in Idlib under Turkish command.
Goal of HTS is very different. Wants to keep militants — without them it is an empty shell. HTS wants battles that disrupt civilians as Russia and Syria would be blamed.
Who will prevail? Up until now these militants were slippery eels, taking money from anybody, but preferring HTS that lets them keep their separateness and commanders.
But now, Syrian Army is threatening , it is for real, and militants’ families have a say in this. These are not just soldiers — but people with families. They may be also tired of uncertainty. They know that in the long run, Syria will regain control. Why wait, and risk death or prison. Turkey will provide salaries, and for some citizenship. For others, a chance to be relocated to Turkey border region, which would be a blessing, as that area will for a long time be patrolled by Russian and Turkish forces.
Syria has accomplished a great deal, by giving militants and HTS a bad blow. Now it is up to Turkey — with the most noise possible — get those militants to trust Turkey and separate from Western backed HTS. HTS has been scaring them with Turkey being Russian ally, and would betray them. But now, Turkey has been paying militants in their employ for a while. And now, many are paid well to go to Libya. This is attractive to young militants without families.
There are units with HTS that are foreign fighters, and those will likely stay with HTS. But Syrian groups now have some thinking to do.
They would be crazy to think that Turkey will wait for them forever, and protect from Syrian Army. Turkey will not hesitate from attacking HTS — which is a terrorist organization under Turkish law. In fact, even groups that take their sweet time separating from HTS could be a target.
All it will take is to accuse HTS and those hanging on to them of attacking groups that abandoned HRS in retaliation. After all — HTS had them all beaten into submission earlier. Turkey will not allow such real or imagined attack to take place. It will be a war on HTS.
Clearly, this can evolve many different ways. But Turkey came in to sort the region out, and barring some unexpected move by HTS/Helmets sponsors, it will be at a minimum pacified.
I cannot imagine what other topic the chiefs of Turkish and Syrian intelligence had to talk about.
Excellent analyse.
White Helmets also gets funded by the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and other EU countries.
The CIA sponsored propagandamonger Elizabeth Tsurkov yesterday called HTS “more hardline rebels”. Not a word about them being al Qaeda’s Syria franchise and being a designated terrorist group even by Warshington.
That is the power of propaganda in the era of hi-tech — a lie can be told easily thousands upon thousands of times, proving Goebels’ theory.
It is not only terrorist group in Washington but in mist countries in the region, including Turkey.
Being now funded from US and UK — as other sponsors dropped, it gets money openly through funding for White Helmets. The multimillion dollars funding is not for saving people, but for paying for militants.
I am wondering if now — as end game is near — HTS pawn off its low end militants to Turkey, including them into militant groups Turkey will have to find location for or keep within Idlib those with local ties.
That will allow top asset HRS and Helmets to be discretely removed. For as long as HTS residue does not poison Idlib’s eventual reintegration into Syria.
What a setback.
The Author in his short article only managed to state 5 times that the terrorists in Aleppo-Idlib are “rebels”.
Yep. My pet peeve.
Turkey knows that the terrorists will return if they cannot camp in Syria, and who wants these people in their country.
Well many of the terrorist came from your country now you can have them back .
Turkey has plans for them. It had offers on the table since 2018. But now , these are the offers hard to refuse. The hard one to accept is the loss of group identity and the loss of their leadership. Turkey puts them all into same uniforms and appoints new commanders.
The threat of “total war” seems overblown, verging on desperate.. Likely just political rhetoric for Erdogan’s domestic constituency. Bluster to hide Turkey’s, which is to say Erdogan’s, defeat.
No, he is not hiding defeat. Quite to the contrary, he is victorious.
But yes — it is partially domestic politics, partially posturing against HRS propaganda.
What is domestic concern? His former Prime Minister, Davutoglu, West favorite, has founded his own party to unseat Erdogan. Just a reminder, this is the man that on the day he was sworn in as Prime Minister, ordered shooting of Russian plane. He is the man that was preventing constitutional changes to give President functions other then ceremonial. But because of a blunder in EU help to Turkey for refugees — which Erdogan exposed, he and his Government were forced to resign in May 2016. Another day, new Prime Minister appointed by Erdogan, normalized relations with Russia. And in July, there was a coup
attempt, more like an assassination
attempt on Erdogan, Now, he is back in politics gearing for regime change.
He accused Erdogan of being “soft” on Idlib, and that Syrian offensive was going to bring millions of refugees into Turkey. That is a hot subject in Turkey . Erdogan took advantage of the accusations to do what nobody expected — take troops into Idlib. Seal the border area, and raise big noise about the need to protect militants. Keep in mind what this is sll about — militants were supposed to separate from HTS and accept Turkish command, Russia said it precisely — Turkey did not separate Syrian militants from HTS, the terrorist organization,
Now, Turkey is acting as their protector. I bet there is a limited. time within which to take Turkey’s offer in relocation or demilitarization under Turkey’s command.
If they do not act, prefer HTS, excuse would be found to attack HTS — unless a safe passage is arranged for the leadership and special ops called White Helmets.
As for Erdogan, he accomplished a lot for being such a bad guy. First he liberated a corridor between birder town if Jarabulus to the crossroads town called Al -Bab from ISIS. This prevented YPG Kurds from taking over Turkish border West of Euphrates, and hooking up with Kurd region Afrin. After YPG from Afrin refused Russian mediation to reintegrate Afrin into Government controlled area — Turkey invaded Afrin, ousted YPG, and is occupying area through which smuggled arms came from Turkish Kurds into Idlb.
He then moved his troops into border area East of Euphrates to remove Kurds from Arab towns. US moved out of the area, allowing Syrian troops to reclaim nearly quarter if the country held by US and YPG un SDF uniforms. YPG collapsed and Syrian Army is in control if Kobane, Manbij and Raqqa. I cannot imagine somebody overlooking this amazing development. As a result Turkey and Russia control the border.
Idlib . This is the final piece of puzzle.
Remember how Turkey hates Kurds — Syria loves Kurds , and now, Syria hates Islamic militants — Turkey loves Islamic militants. In the first instance — goal was to make US go, and Kurds demilitarized and not on US payroll. In the second, goal is to make HTS/Helmets to go, and Islamic militants demilitarized and not in US/UK payroll.