Turkish-backed Syrian rebels have announced another new counter-offensive in Aleppo Province this weekend, another bid to try to reclaim territory that has fallen in recent weeks of fighting with the Syrian Army.
Syria’s offensive initially targeted al-Qaeda, but when Turkey got involved it quickly included rebels in Aleppo as well. This has resulted in virtually the whole of Aleppo Province falling to the Syrian government.
Aleppo and Idlib represent most of the rest of rebel-held Syria at this point in the war, and with Syria now reclaiming the main highway, they seem on the verge of claiming control of that area.
Turkey is desperate to reverse that trend, and while their main track is threatening Russia, they have also pumped mortars and rockets into rebel groups to try to give them an advantage in their new counter-offensive.
I am surprised that after all this time we cannot see the forrest for trees and distinguish noise from message. So, step by step:
1.
Russia and Turkey established checkpoints in 2018 to allow non-Al-Qaeda affiliated militants to cross over to Turkish command. Some did. Others remained with HTS, creating a stalemate.
2.
Remember who is HTS. Besides having Al-Qaeda brand name, it is fully funded by Wesr, not Saudis and Gulf. How are they funded? Openly through MI5 and CIA outfit White Helmets. HTS job is to meep militant groups loyal to them by paying them salaries, and promising post-war role in Idlib and political protection.
3.
Stalemate was broken following a meeting between Turkish and Syrian intel chiefs in Moscow. Syrian Army started offensive and losses to militants were massive. No US/UK help.
4.
Turkey sealed off checkpoints and border bringing troops to prevent any militant breakout towards Turkey border areas. Message — we are all you got, standing between you and Syrian Army. I am assuming that the real message is, do not spurn our offer again.
5.
While this can take many shapes and forms, militants accepting Turkish authority must accept Turkish commanders and no group has separate authority, a bitter pill to swallow. Expect militants to take it and not sacrifice their families for HTS.
6.
HTS without militants is an empty shell and cannot control Idlib. Let us see just how much pull US/UK have over militants. HRS/Helmets final status is the real holdup. The push for getting lost territory back comes from HTS, as a proof that Turkey is not a Russian stooge.
7.
Idlib will be pacified, and this is the end goal. Hopefully without major offensive to protect civilians and not generate refugees.
In the meantime, a lots of noise.
Why insist on calling them rebels? They are terrorists.
The two terms are not opposites. It is entirely possible to be both, and they are unquestionably the former.
i and others have also tried.
As you can read from the mod. comment, its pointless.
This site is just like the MSM.
I just read on Rt that Russia has vowed to assist the Syrian army to liberate the territory from terrorists. I wish them well
Aleppo has not “fallen”. Its been liberated by its legitimate government.
Bit like reporting Auschwitz has fallen to the Russians.