In an interview with Der Spiegel magazine, Iranian FM Javad Zarif said Iran is continuing to not rule out the possibility of talks with the US, saying it was always possible for the other side to change their approach. He reiterated that Iran wants the US to lift sanctions.
Even though talks with Iran were long a major goal for President Trump, he quickly declared “no thanks” on Twitter, saying he is not willing to offer sanctions relief as part of this process.
This is in keeping with Trump’s position on almost all matters of diplomacy, which is that he wants negotiations and wants a lot of concessions, but only so long as it doesn’t require the US to give up anything in return.
Zarif offered his own Twitter comment, in reference to Trump tweeting @FoxNews in his rejection comment, saying he thinks the US should base its foreign policy and comments on “facts, not @FoxNews headlines.”
The US is not agreement capable. The Russians are correct.
All I ask is that you share this information. I post this in all relevant threads because our sailors’ lives matter. One of the earliest battlegrounds will actually be battle waters theaters of battle in any full scale conflict would be the Strait of Hormuz. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Iranians will sink the entire Fifth Fleet if it attempts to break an Iranian blockade of the water way.
“If the Americans attack Iran, the world will change. They will not dare to make such a mikstake.”
~ Former President of Iran Akbar Rafsanjani
Every American needs to understand the Millennium Challenge 2002 war game and its implications. 15,000 sailors’ lives in the Fifth depend on it. Iran will absolutely be as successful as van Riper in the Strait. This is not a matter of technology and firepower, which they could never match, a fact they are well aware of, so they have built their navy SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS SITUATION. And of course, thousands of Iranians would die. That’s the whole point. It is a matter of the relative numbers of small craft and missiles against oil tankers and warships, and it is a matter of the relative maneuverability of big clunky oil tankers and warships against asymmetric swarm tactics in the strait, and they win. When the Iranian Navy was decisively defeated in Operation Praying Mantis in the 1980s, what was destroyed was a smaller, inferior force of just nine vessels, two frigates, one gunboat, and six speedboats. To equate it to what the Strait will look like this time is preposterous.
No amount of bravery can overcome numerical and physical reality. If there are 50 suicide boats surrounding and speeding at them, and they sink 45, 90%, they can take their A-minus to the bottom of the sea. Add barrages of anti-ship missiles, and the situation becomes even more hopeless.
A blue water navy cannot triumph here. Indeed, it will be destroyed here. Round over
Unlike Pearl Harbor, where we had been at peace for decades, we are currently the world’s most interventionist power and the people are sick of war. Also unlike Pearl Harbor, the likelihood of the US provoking or prevaricating an incident is far higher than that of Iranians launching an actual initiatory attack, My hope is these differences direct anger to the right people in our own government. But thousands of dead sailors is going to shock most Americans, and they will be afraid, and the warmongers and war profiteers will exploit that fear. With such massive loss of life, my fear is that the Donny Administration will successfully mobilize a full scale invasion. “Avenge the Fifth,” I imagine will be the slogan. VietIran at best. WWIII in fact.
There are two crucial time periods. One will be the month before the election, the so-called October Surprise (just like Donny predicted Barry would do, so we know this is how he thinks). The other will be after Bernie defeats him and he is a lame duck. He is absolutely petty enough to hand a war off to the next administration. If it is Bernie, I would hope that his nascent state department will immediately reach out to Iran to halt any hostilities. We can’t know if it would be too late, the Shia Crescent is on fire. Minority Shia in nuclear armed Pakistan are agitated. Nuclear armed India is nervous. Hezbollah is shelling nuclear-armed Israel with its 40,000 rockets and missiles. You bet your life that Russia and China will mobilize their armies to their Southern and Western borders. We can’t know how far the violence has to spread for both to intervene directly. Will we even have the time to mobilize an expeditionary force? Would this Administration really order nuclear attacks on a non-nuclear power for the third time in history, once again by the United States. May we never know these answers.
For more:
Why a War with Iran is Just…. A Horrendous Idea https://youtu.be/FCuoj5Dz6VI
U Sank My Carrier! http://www.exile.ru/print.php?ARTICLE_ID=6779&IBLOCK_ID=35
The Neoconservative Agenda To Sacrifice the Fifth Fleet. This is from 2007, when the neocons seemed like they were really going to do this before cooler heads prevailed. And now they are back in the driver’s seat and have at least another year to begin a war. . http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/3317
Can a speedboat sink a carrier?
https://newwars.wordpress.com/2010/04/12/can-a-speedboat-sink-a-carrier-pt-1/
America must not underestimate Iran’s Navy, or else…
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/america-must-not-underestimate-irans-navy-or-else-109106
If this happens, there is a high probability US will escalate to nukes.
Definitely not unthinkable. Maybe I’mjust deluding my self but I have to believe there is some limit. We’ve used chemoweapons, bioweapons, depleted uranium ammunition, area bombing. But to nuke another nonnuclear country…
It would only be the beginning. The Shia world will be utterly incensed. And Russia and China would almost certainly aid in the retaliatory chaos, overtly or covertly. Like I said, WWIII.
This is possible since the USA is the only nation to use nukes on civilians and has ever since pretended the damage was minimal and now they can use “mini nukes” and escape retaliation. Nobody else is so irresponsible, and the USA does not realize that Russia and China actually have defenses and are not interested in being blown to bits for no reason except stupidity and hubris.
I think our bogus excuse was about all the lives we “saved” instead of the minimal damage angle. Lies either way.
I don’t think they are lies. By any honest analysis over the invasion and occupation of Japan, and the fanatical resistance it faced. Millions more would die in an invasion than in all the air raids on japan, including all firebombings and the nukes combined. What is discounted and unfairly so is the Soviet invasion of Manchuria. It played as much, if not more, of a role as the atomic bombings. Still oppose their use, which was a sick demonstration for Stalin.
They was no need for a ground invasion, Japan was willing to surrender. Agree with the “sick demonstration” for Stalin.
We have the benefit of hindsight. Can’t forget that. Yes, I think if Stalin invaded Manchuria and the US just held off to allow the shock of their last ditch effort to negotiate a favorable surrender with USSR as mediator wear off and face the reality of invasion or unconditional surrender. You know the rest.
On the other hand, even after Nagasaki, hardline military officials staged a coup to shut up the diplomatic members.Thankfully it failed.
But yes, this is really bigger than Japan as has been discussed.
Russia and China have also made substantial investments into Iran, and will not take kindly to them being nuked or irradiated.
This is such a tense time, my blood pressure must be skyrocketing.
I would say the first sign of real trouble would be the fleet leaving the gulf. Once they are safely out to sea this swarm tactic won’t work.
While there is no doubt that leaving the Persian Gulf posthaste is beneficial to the security of the fleet, the main reason the fifth fleet is over there is to keep Hormuz open so 20%of the world’s oil Can pass through daily. If the fleet is not engaging in the Strait and escorting tankers, then the Iranian blockade succeeds. And what of the big ships who failed to get through the Strait before its mining and blocking?
“If the fleet is not engaging in the Strait and escorting tankers, then the Iranian blockade succeeds.”
What Iranian blockade would that be?
A prospective one. Did you really think I was saying there is a current blockade when there is not a current blockade? You’ve disagreed with me, but give me a little more credit than that. Thanks.
Maybe Trump will negotiate with Iran like he’s doing with Israel/Palestine. Invite only one side to the table. Of course that would leave him sitting by himself but he’s probably less dangerous that way.
It’s best for him to openly negotiate with Iran – He’s already been doing just that, behind the scenes – but now, rejecting Iran’s willingness to negotiate’s just plain stupid on his part. Iran hasn’t attacked its neighbors in 500+ years, but it has every right to defend itself against any and all aggressors.
DJT’s worst mistake was the assassination of IRGC Commander Qassem Soleimani, who was on a diplomatic mission to Baghdad, when a drone strike obliterated the vehicle in which he was riding. He should’ve rejected the pressure Porky-face Pompass and Israeli PM Bibi Nutty&Yahoo laid upon him, but he was too cowardly to refuse.
Cowardly or stupid?
“It’s best for him to openly negotiate with Iran – He’s already been doing just that, behind the scenes”
Please stop saying that or provide a shred of proof.
The USA wants to continue its illegal sanctions against the Iranian people who have done nothing to warrant the attacks by the Big Bully.
The article headline is highly misleading. Trump says no thanks to sanction relief not to negotiate.
When you got somebody by their yo-yos, you press until a chick is hatched or they bend a knee to you, you don’t negotiate with them to ease up on the yo-yos. That not how sadism works
The headline should have included Iran wanting sanction relief as a condition to negotiate. And that would make Trump’s “no thanks” inclusive.