A new round of alarmist reports on Iran’s civilian nuclear program, and possible weapons proliferation, are being publicized over the past week. As usual, this got its start in Israel, where military intelligence claimed Iran might have enough uranium for a single bomb by year’s end.
The arguments surrounding Iran’s “breakout” time are all built around irresponsible over-simplification of the nuclear process, and the assumption that Iran’s nuclear program has absolute mastery of aspects of enrichment they’ve never attempted.
Breakout time gets calculated on the basis of Iran’s existing stockpile of low-enriched uranium. At 3.67% enrichment, this stockpile is far below the 90%+ used in atomic weapons, and the needs for a weapon are built around the idea that Iran’s stockpile of 3.67% grows to a certain point wherein it is transmutated to weapons grade uranium and weaponized perfectly.
This isn’t how it works, of course. Iran would need a lot of further enrichment to take the uranium from levels needed for fueling a power plant to making a weapon, and Iran has never attempted to enrich uranium to anywhere near that level. This is a substantial set of challenges in the process by itself.
Getting to the point where they have a weapon’s worth of weapons-grade uranium isn’t the end, either, because then Iran has to successfully weaponize that level of uranium, which they’ve never had in the first place, and obviously never attempted to turn into a weapon before.
On top of all of that, Iran still couldn’t be called a nuclear power until they tested that weapon and proved it worked. This is the most foolish aspect of these breakout estimates, as even if Iran got enough uranium to hypothetically make one bomb, then went through all the other steps, and then detonated it as a proof of concept, they would have just used up their entire stockpile. That clearly would do them no good, so clearly a one-bomb stockpile is virtually no stockpile at all.
This contribution to the discussion does not assume let alone claim that I know what Iran’s intentions are.
The method for producing bomb-grade U235 which Iran uses is identical to that of North Korea which means that Iran can produce bomb grade U235 in principle. Security and protection of workers as the concentration of U235 increases as well as against leaks of the highly corrosive gas UF6 will become vital.
I agree with the remainder of the article, especially with the need to prove that a weapon will actually work.
North Korea was the only nation willing to share nuclear technology with Iran, and their program was military. Naturally, the result would be a military-looking Iranian nuclear power program.
It doesn’t help that historically, almost all nations pursuing ‘peaceful’ nuclear power were really after the bomb.
Being able to somewhat master the full nuclear cycle gives Iran the potential to make nuclear weapons, but for sure grants Iran the energy independence her rivals do not want her to have.
A nuclear powered but not nuclear armed Iran could also complicate invasion scenarios, as these facilities can become like an extreme poison pill, even though they are deep underground.
With regards to other nations which were really after the bomb I can assure you from direct knowledge that The Netherlands was not after the bomb at least until 1962 but did have a nuclear reactor at Petten.
As a chemist I participated in the development of the ultra centrifuges for the enrichment of U235 in The Netherlands. The objective for that enrichment was a merchant marine with ships powered by nuclear reactors.
During this period the Dutch government was asked to become a partner in the French U235 enrichment plant at Pierlatte. It refused because that plant could easily produce bomb-grade U235.
There can be little doubt that a few nations like the Netherlands, that developed nuclear power independently, did not want to develop nuclear weapons, and supported non-proliferation.
In the 1970s, nuclear power was still the future of energy as well as war. Centrifuges are a core technology.
However, centrifuges are dual use and the Netherlands made the best. Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan, father of the Pakistani bomb, abused his employer’s trust; Netherland’s URENCO, and stole their centrifuge plans. The tech eventually migrated to North Korea through no fault of the Netherlands government.
Any blind-eye turned, was not the Netherland’s preferred outcome but the result of consulting the CIA. The CIA had its own agenda; a nuclear-armed Pakistan was their balance to Soviet-friendly nuclear-armed India.
Sometimes being a cooperative security partner with the U.S., has undesired and unexpected consequences.
https://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/12/world/a-tale-of-nuclear-proliferation-how-pakistani-built-his-network.html
https://www.nti.org/gsn/article/cia-delayed-breakup-of-khan-network-for-decades-journalists-assert/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan%E2%80%93United_States_relations
Yes and URENCO has enrichment plants in Germany and the US.
Do you know how Khan got into the Almelo URENCO plant? The government of Pakistan told URENCO that it had this young, promising engineer who had learned all he could in Pakistan. Could he enhance his professional career by working in Almelo? The rest is known.
That ruse had actually been used many years earlier by the government of South Africa which asked the Dutch government to allow a young promising engineer named Imo Bock to enhance his studies in Kistemaker’s FOM lab. The Dutch government accepted but forbade Bock to ever enter the area where the centrifuges were developed. That happened.
And Khan stole not only the plans but parts including the most critical mechanical part of these machines which is the single spike on which they stand and rotate. Of course he also stole the precise composition of the aluminum used for the tubes. That is critical because the metal alloy must not only have sufficient strength but must resist corrosion by UF6.
That is why Bush’s concern that the aluminum tubes for Iraq were for centrifuges could have been tested hence resolved in seconds: get the elemental composition.
That’s fascinating history.
Realistically, its difficult to prevent ‘friendly’ espionage without drastically restructuring the industry involved, which may add costs and inefficiency since Western nations thrive on open technical and scientific sharing within and between one-another.
The exchanges you describe are also diplomatically awkward to deny until a crime takes place. The Netherlands is too dependent on world trade to be shut out of South Africa or even Pakistan.
Once the crime is committed, then there’s precedent and pretext for refusing an exchange, but, the harm is done.
The real harm to society was committed when the citizen whistleblowers involved ended up badly treated by their own government under the hubris of ‘national security’. The loss of faith in our own security services, stems less from their crimes abroad than their crimes at home.
If you say it enough times it becomes true. Just like “state sponsor of terror” or “Iranian proxies”. Has any politician talked about Iran without prefacing it with “state sponsor of terror”? Or talked about any Shia group as not being an “Iranian proxy”?
Yup, repeat, repeat, soon, even those that know better wonder, is there anything to this ? Brought to you by, the marketing boys at lies are us.
Bernays, Goebbels, Rove, Bannon…social science at its worst
They have been “close” for over 20 years now. And frankly, who could blame them, given all of the US bases that surround the country, and the presence of the OTHER major terrorist nations in the region – Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Iran has no nuclear weapons program. Iran does not want nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons would be a strategic liability for Iran. Iran demonstrated one third of its strategic defense triad last week when it hit two US bases with ballistic missiles despite giving the US three hours advance warning. Iran’s BM strategy is based on being able to attack any land or naval target within 500 miles of its borders. And they are working on extending that range to 1,000 to 1,200 miles.
The second element of the Iranian triad is its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the US mounted an Iraq style invasion that destroyed the Iranian regime, guerrillas with shoulder launched missiles would effectively make the strait unnavigable, shutting off 20% of the world’s oil supply.
The third part of Iran’s military strategy is actually the reason Israel and the US want to cripple the regime by intimidation or regional war, if intimidation does not work. That is Iran’s consistent support of the Palestinian resistance. Think the 3 H’s (Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis). Israel correctly recognizes that Iran is an existential threat to the Zionist regime and uses the phony charge that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon to justify aggression against Iran. The 3 H’s and Islamic Jihad are legitimate resistance groups, they are not Iranian proxies. But Iran is their main state supporter and the regime is staunchly opposed to the Zionist state.
Finally, aside from strategy, Iran’s leading ayatollah issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons as un-Islamic. That fatwa makes it impossible for Iran to develop a secure nuclear weapons program since any Shiite who follows the ayatollah is required to oppose and expose any nuclear weapons program.
As Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said several years ago “What would we do with [a nuclear bomb], polish it?” Nuclear weapons have no place in Iran’s military strategy or in the regime’s religious or political philosophy.
It’s also against their religion to have nuclear weapons.
Iran building a nuclear weapon is as likely as the Rebel Alliance building a Death Star.
Eh, is Abrams still in charge?
No. Palpatine.
Remember that Javad Zarif said that the JCPOA deal couldn’t get any better. Watch as Iran “reluctantly” comes back to the table because they feel obligated to honor the victims of the jetliner.
Why should they come back? They got no help from anyone with regard to the US sanctions.
They will come back because the Mullahs are on thin ice and the country is starving.
It’s the exact same chorus chanting the exact same horse manure, year after year, decade after decade. If what they claimed was true, Iran would already have nuked us and established Sharia law from Wichita to San Fran.
“Our” government, along with may folks, is freakin nuts–almost as much as the Israelis.
Israel badly wants to provoke US into a war with Iran. The goal is to goad Iran into blocking the Straits of Hormuz. Why?
Because Israel on Jan 2nd just closed a gas pipeline deal with Greece and with Cyprus to supply energy to Europe. Moreover. feeling royally screwed by Israel, Saudi Arabia had turned to the Iranian leadership for a peace deal and future security of their oil fields….Then, a couple of days later…BANG! Neoconia
strikes again…
A secret US/Israel military “US will protectIsrael” agreement had also just been recently signed, so tricking Trump into a war was and is, unfortunately for everyone, safe…Turkey opposes the Israeli-Cyprus-Geece pipeline deal, Iran will not bite, so next it will be “Bomb…Bomb…Bomb..TURKEY!
Remember: “All options are on the table, when all idiots are at the table…”…Go figure…