The decision by three EU nations to trigger the P5+1 nuclear deal’s dispute mechanism was a dangerous one. It threatens to break the deal they’ve sought to save, was opposed by Russia, and was also criticized as a mistake by Iran.
Negotiations were the obvious way forward, and the dispute mechanism risks everything. It turns out, the EU nations didn’t have a real choice on the matter, and did so in response to US threats.
On Wednesday, it was revealed that President Trump had threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on all European auto imports if Britain, France, and Germany did not immediately trigger the mechanism and declare Iran to be in violation of the nuclear deal.
Yet this effort ignores key facts, particularly that Iran was deliberately violating the deal in minor, easily reversible ways to try to get negotiations going, because the EU nations were already in violation, failing to deliver promised sanctions relief.
The EU violations are the result of President Trump withdrawing from the nuclear deal, and threatening Europe enough that those nations did not do business with Iran as they’d pledged to. This was a long-recognized problem, and while the EU initially promised a clearing house to circumvent the US, they failed to deliver on it.
Ultimately all of the violations of the nuclear deal are by the design of the Trump Administration, which has wanted to kill it from day one. They are continuing to drive EU policy on Iran away from compliance and toward increasingly dangerous steps, believing they can ultimately kill the deal despite no longer being a party to it.
Vague banking sanctions were all it took to keep the EU from trading with Iran, and now an auto tariff, which Trump has threatened before and is liable to impose on some other pretext at any rate, was enough to drive their policy on the nuclear deal itself.
The dispute mechanism is part of the deal, so invoking it is abiding by the deal. Which is a refreshing change of direction considering that ever since the US started violating the deal, the EU and Iranian responses have been to violate it as well.
This is legalistic and not in the spirit of the agreement.
Iran fully implemented every step of their commitments as long as the other parties did so as well, even when it was not achieving the full benefits they thought they would get (companies were reluctant to re-enter the Iran market due to continued US threats even under Obama).
However, when the EU nations (and China and Russia as well) showed that they could not break the sanctions imposed by the US, the deal was effectively broken. Iran started the process of noncompliance then.
This has been a disaster for the EU. They have shown they have no independent foreign policy when push comes to shove. In future agreements and negotiations, they should not even be consulted … what’s the point? Just negotiate with the real dealmakers: US, China and Russia.
Exactly.
“This is legalistic and not in the spirit of the agreement.”
True.
But it will clarify things.
The dispute resolution mechanism inherently makes it clear that Iran is just being pushed around.
For one thing, it allows any permanent member of the UN Security Council to veto sanctions relief, but forbids any UN Security Council member to veto sanctions reimpositions. And those reimpositions are automatic if the UNSC doesn’t adopt a resolution lifting sanctions in 30 days.
Which means that the UNSC is going to re-impose sanctions.
That’s bad in the short term, but like I said, it clarifies things.
The deal was broken by the US, and has since been broken by the EU. The dispute resolution lets it be OFFICIALLY broken, BY those same parties, instead of the theatrical Iran-blaming.
Once it’s OFFICIALLY broken, countries (party and non-party to the deal alike) that have been tip-toeing a bit to see if things would work out will likely get more overt with breaking the sanctions. China. India. Russia.
This can only drive Europe more toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Germany needs Russian gas and will soon get it when the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Russia is completed. Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Portugal have individual agreements with China to get in on the action. China is ready to start rebuilding Iraq’s oil infrastructure as soon as US troops are forced out. The Persian Gulf is being patrolled by Russian and Chinese ships. The Anglo-Zionist Empire is on the ropes, folks!
Apparently, “Art of the Deal” is just simple extortion. Who knew ?
It is an art nonetheless.
I guess, if bludgeoning puppies is an art…..
Lessons about appeasement and bullies forgotten by oldEurope?
Also, aren’t there WTO rules about fair trade between parties?
Finally, could not EU snap tariffs on US goods just like China very effectively did? Got the US to back off?
Face it, they are satraps to the US and being satraps is all they know. They’re just hoping for a more reasonable master next January.
“did so in response to US threats.” Giving in to blackmail just makes the power of the bully greater. Already the ludicrous lies to “justify” assassination a foreign general are accepted by the spineless US public (I do not know about Europe as I refuse to read the papers eg e Figaro here in France.) We know the UK Murdochry and ‘liberal’ Sycophant (known as the Guardian) have no interest in the truth. If the rest of us do not challenge the USA it will take over all of us, and it will not be democracy and freedom.
The EU leaders are spineless, pathetic, cowards and bowing puppets.