Russian hopes to resolve fighting in Libya with a ceasefire deal look remote, as the head of one of the factions, Gen. Khalifa Hafter of the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA), left the talks early, and departed from Moscow entirely without a deal in hand.
A former CIA asset, Hafter has tried to carry out several coups d’etat in Libya over the years. His longest lasting began in April, when he besieged Tripoli, held by the Government of National Accord (GNA). That fighting is still ongoing.
Hafter’s LNA is supported broadly by Gulf nations, along with Egypt’s military junta. Russia is also believed to favor them, while Turkey is one of the few nations with more than a token level of support for the GNA.
Turkish officials bragged that Hafter leaving the talks puts Russia in “a tight spot,” and Turkish President Erdogan has threatened to teach Hafter a lesson militarily. The GNA has agreed to let Turkey establish a military base inside Libya and Turkey’s parliament also seems to favor that plan.
For Turkey, the deal is primarily about a maritime exploration deal with the GNA, and offshore oil and gas. Hafter has presented himself as an alternative to Islamists, and suggested his rule would return stability to Libya.
Lesson: when you overthrow a government do not kill its leader but keep him in reserve to return when needed.
Riussia might consider doing a Soleimani on this sellout.
No, Russia will not shove down their throat anything they do not want.
It is normal — posturing before negotiations, Haftar knows that the only way he can have a say in the future of Libya — is to cut the deal with weak GNA, but which nonetheless has the legitimacy.
A good guess would be that the White House told instructed Hafter to walk away from the Russian peace talks.
That all depends on what the leverage is. Since US tossed him out as “has-been” when it brought in UN recognized government in Tripoli, called pompously the Government of National Accord . And “has-been” hopped on a Russian warship in Mediterranean. Since, with Egypt’s and Russia’s help, took almost entire Libya. At present, Saudi Arabia and UAE are also supporting Haftar.
It is not at all unusual for him not o sign. It was a prep-session for Berlin conference. And Haftar did not win the entire Libya by force — most regions joined him voluntarily after he defeated Islamists in Benghazi. He must consult with them in details.
Most important part of the process is Turkey’s backing of Tripoli. There are potential problems there, as GNA does not control all the militants, and Turkey must act truly big and bad — to convince them that they will protect them. Unlike US that was courting Haftar, and getting ready to dump them without protection.
Too much is made these days of each tiny step in the process, patience pays.
There will be more posturing as parties get down to business. We all know that Haftar has backers and territory. Tripoli has legitimacy and Turkey to vouch for safety and brokering on its behalf.
Hopefully the presence of Saudis snd UAE is going to convey US interests.
Good for Hafter. All Russia’s Ceasefire Specials accomplish are needlessly extending conflicts.
That is a new one in the repertoire!
You mean like in Syria? Where life has bern restored to normalcy in most of the country. And without ruffling too many feathers — Russia managed to get dozens of formerly foreign paid militants to learn how to regain foothold in a peaceful economy. Without turning ethnic and religious groups into enemies.
Right, it takes time to clean up a mess that somebody recklessly, stoking up the militancy and street violence, left behind.
But the envious empire could not care less for successes of others — it wants to WIN! And Syria does not feel like winning — so let us hate anyone for making a progress.
To wit, this past Christmas, thousands were in the streets of Damascus and Aleppo. Celebrating. Moslems joining in the music and festivities. I do not recall CNN being there.
And following US withdrawal from North East Syria, in spite of CHEERFUL prognostication of impeding conflict between Syria. Turkey, Russia and Kurds — it all turned out pretty well, didn’t it?
Putting down Russia that is making an effort to calm conflict ravaged regions — seems to be the newest fashion.
US could have all these YEARS moved off its duff and bring parties in Libya together to bring peace. Why didn’t it?
I do not see endless wars and conflicts — our style — bringing peace any time soon, any place, do you? That is called incompetence. And for incompetence, excuses are aplenty!
After the Iran fiasco, I can’t trust any news anymore. Talk about grain of salt.