Looking to end the 8-month stalemate in the Libyan capital of Tripoli, Gen. Khalifa Hafter, the head of the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA), has issued an ultimatum to the Misrata militia, one of the main allies of the Tripoli-based government, ordering them to leave in three days.
Specifically, the LNA wants the militia out of both Tripoli and the key port city of Sirte within the three days, and is threatening to attack Misrata directly if they don’t do so. With a lot of international allies on the fence about the LNA and the Government of National Accord (GNA), the Misrata militia has been the main fighting force backing the GNA.
The loss of the militia could sway the battle for Tripoli in the LNA’s favor, and the LNA’s international support, mostly from Egypt and the UAE, means they could try to launch airstrikes against Misrata if they don’t get their way.
The Misrata militia was one of the main west Libyan militias rebelling against the Gadhadi government. The group’s religious leanings has the LNA viewing them, like many of the GNA’s backers, as tantamount to Islamists.
There has been no direct comment on the LNA’s ultimatum, though Turkey’s President Erdogan has reiterated his support for the GNA. Erdogan has also said Turkey will have a military base in Libya to support them if necessary, which may be why the LNA is suddenly desperate to get the battle over Tripoli wrapped up in a 3-day weekend.
At this stage both groups were used or being used by the west in one form or another.
True. But equation has just changed.
Up until now less advertised drama has finally bubbled up to the surface. Greece and Cyprus have, with US and British pressure worked with Israel to come up with maritime agreements that would lock Turkey out of East Mediterranean gas field.
The same “experts” that tried to convince Europe to stop Nord Stream — as they did no see the need for so much gas, are full throttle claiming now how Europe needs gas from Mediterranean.
The group that steers the gas deposit exploration initiative is Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt. Problem is there are other claimants — Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza also have a claim. Egypt was added into the group as a potential Israeli gas customer.
Greece has no say in this matter — its debt bailout has conditions that makes it impossible to have national position..
The role of helpless Cyprus is to claim EEZ in such a way, as to block Turkey from claiming its EZZ.
EU has been playing a rather ambiguous role in German Nord Stream oil pipeline controversy, while supporting Greece-Cyprus-Israel gas exploration initiative.
The initiative was from the start an illegal undertaking — cutting off other participants by claiming zones for themselves that cannot be supported by UNCLOS.
Although Turkey has the longest border on the Mediterranean— Greece and Cyprus claimed most of its EEZ.
So now, Turkey has laid its claim, and given the length of its Mediterranean coast, a reasonable one. What is different here is the claim on Mediterranean shelf, a claim that will have to be proven to UNCLOS, by geological testing of the shelf and Turkish EEZ. While not complicated, such claims take years to resolve.
This is declaring the end of the project until solutions are found. Which will result in other claimants, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza getting into the queue.
The eyes are now on Libya, as in one stroke, it became a factor in East Mediterranean gas, as well as both sides — Tripoli and Tobruk — are backed by serious partners and the days of leisurely US/French bargaining with both sides came to an abrupt end.
Well, well, the plot thickens. General Heftar was US asset sent from his semi-retirement in Langley, Virginia, to provide leadership to post-Ghadafi Libya. After faithfully working for the cause, he was seen as has-been, and US and EU concocted UN cobbled Government of National Accord. But General did not go away, stayed on the border with Egypt with the Parliament that migrated there as well. Both US and EU just waited to see who will win. Hefter got support from Egypt, as he trounced Islamists in the West Libya after taking over Benghazi. By now, Hefter controls most territory, as South joined him without a battle,
Now, Trump is courting him, so is France. Part if courting is surely the fact that his family is still here. Thus, Hefter in spite of support from Egypt, is vulnerable just as is hrlpless Tripoli.
Here comes Turkey. In one stroke, two birds.
One, Hefter’s value has come down. and the value of his family. He will not be the only one leaned on. Now, Tripoli got some negotiating ammunition.
But to Turkey, the maritime deal is stroke of genius. EU working against Gefmany by propping up Israel centric East Mediterranean Gas entity that has helpless Cyprus and debtor Greece subjugated to Israeli interests in gas deposits — has hit a major snag.
Comes conveniently as US sanctioned all companies ekrking on Nord Stream, linking Germany with Russia via pipeline, as well as other north European countries.
Now, gas cannot go through, as Turkey has s
also claimed waters under UNCLOS EEZ, and Med shelf. By kerping Turkey out of the plans, Israel-centric agreement has resulted in a move that is by far more complex, as it ties Libya into the equation.