While it’s never clear what exactly is going on, secret talks between Saudi Arabia and the Shi’ite Houthi movement in Yemen have, by all accounts, been making some progress. Prisoners were released, medical patients evacuated, and attacks are down substantially.
The Saudis have admitted to “indirect, behind-the-scenes talks” with the Houthis, with neighboring Oman brokering the effort. Early suggestions were that a deal to end the war might take the form of something like the deal with the southern separatists to end fighting in Aden.
The obstacle in that deal, that the Hadi government of Yemen didn’t like the idea of power-sharing with the separatists, is the same as the Houthi talks. Past negotiations similarly suffered from the Hadi government rejecting the idea of any deal in which the Houthis get anything.
A deal sharing power in Yemen, or having free elections, would after all reduce the control of the Hadi government in post-war Yemen, and they are continuing to hold out for what they believed they’d get at the start of the war, unconditional, indefinite rule over the whole of Yemen.
There is no “Hadi government of Yemen.”
There’s a “Hadi puppet regime in Saudi Arabia claiming to be the government of Yemen.”
Very true.
Going slightly back from the date Hadi was the only candidate in Yemen election.
Saudi Arabia was in agreement with US objective of keeping Yemen together, even though South and North wanted to go back to status ante Clinton. The reason? North is heavily majority Shia, South Sunni. Being Iran obsessed , US cannot see North RE-gaining independence and keeping their port of Hodeidah.
In Saudi Arabia, FBI educated Interior minister Mohammed Bin Nayaf became Crown Prince, after inoffensive Muqrin was ousted after a month.
That was US dream come true. Saudi Arabia descended on Yemen full force, with US navy supporting blockade of Yemeni ports, insuring no goods came through Period between March-April 2015 to June 2017 saw 90% of civilian infrastructure destruction. By 2017, it was also clear that ISIS project was over, with Mosul surrounded.
Saudis elite Allegiance Council interfered, Nayaf was removed and MBS appointed.
Since June 2017, the tug of war started. Saudi goals and US goals no longer coincided. US started supported UAE to punish Saudis, and get UAE an upper hand in the South. Separatists immediately latched onto the opportunity. That would have isolated Saudi Arabia from having influence over all important Bab Al Mandeb.
Fast forward — UAE realizing that MBS is not going anywhere, lost the nerve and in spite of US support, pulled out of the South (mostly). This opened the door for Saudi deal with Separatists in Aden. It was very predictable — Saudis were going to talk to North directly (no idea why are they called Houthis).
Now on to end game. Can Saudis succeed in keeping some form of lose confederation between the two? Or will separation be permanent? Deal with North could be much easier then the deal with the South.
Because in the end of all ends — US will find a way to influence WHOEVER ultimately takes control of the country controlling Red Sea Straits.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Sudan — want the same, making sure they cannot be blocked by whatever power that has ambition to control the Straits.
And somewhere in there, a political solution must be found.
How much influence does Hadi expect from his hotel room in Riyadh?
He’s a democratically elected leader – therefore he believes in his divine right to rule every aspect of the electorates life, after all they elected him.
Not going to happen.