On Monday, Turkish Foreign Ministry Mevlut Cavusoglu accused both Russia and the US of failing to abide by their respective ceasefires with Turkey by failing to expel the Kurdish YPG from the north Syrian safe zone.
This comes after a weekend attack in al-Bab, which Turkish officials blamed on the YPG. Though al-Bab is not within the safe zone, Turkey is emphasizing the bombing as proof the YPG are ISIS-type terrorists.
Cavusoglu says that if neither nation is successful in expelling the Kurds for them, Turkey is prepared to launch another offensive against northern Syria intended to act against the Kurdish faction.
It’s not clear what presence the YPG maintains within northern Syria, though Turkey has clearly intended to take the military offensive against them further than the 30 km border region, and has emphasized the narrative that the YPG are terrorists.
So far it’s not clear what either the US or Russia intends to do about these new allegations, or if they intend to do anything at all. President Trump has declared the ceasefire a success, despite past Turkish objections, and probably won’t want to admit publicly that the deal with Turkey isn’t being sustained.
Russia is not going to do anything. Another Turkish push further south is exactly what’s needed to convince the remaining gangs of Kurdish terrorists of the “SDF” flavour, that protecting US squatters and oil thieves in Syrian Arab land, hundreds of miles from any kurd settlement might not be so good idea after all. And the US will again flee over to Iraq faster than you can say “Russia takes over yet more US bases abandoned in haste”.We’ve seen this movie before.
The US will act, and the Kurds will move, only under active attack. Threats mean nothing to them, and their promises mean nothing.
Putting the Kurds there was a mistake, and taking them back out is stubbornly resisted.
The US position and behavior completely disregards both Turkish interests and the Kurds’ own long term interests. The US wants to isolate Iran, and prepare an attack on Iran. Purely subsidiary to that, it wants to cut back on the terrorists the US previously supported against Assad out of Turkish bases, while keeping the parts of Syria it took from Assad for use against Iran.
Was Turkey invited into Syria?
No, I didn’t think so.
It will be interesting to see what Assad and Russia decide to do.
Putin has left Assad high and dry so far.
Let us not be naive. This is a game. Turkey has not been invited formally for a reason — to allow Damascus and Russia to ask ALL foreign, uninvited to leave, which of course means US.
Turkey, Russia and Iran are guarantors of Syria peace. Meaning all of them including Damascus. The rest is just a process.
Kurds in an initial panic turned over cities and towns to Syrian Army and Russian police. The patrolling of 10km zine started with Russian-Turkish units.
But then, Trump wobbled — he is still to support Kurds, and he is keeping oil wells. Kurds have then BACKED OUT of agreement to get YPG/SDF incorporated under Syrian command. And Kurds have changed tune on Qamishli, and few Assyrian towns.
The attack at Al-Bab is an excuse to make sure everyone is crystal clear that there will be no Kurdish military in charge of any Kurdish state.
Syria and Russia did their share in enticing Kurds to drop their secessionist pretensions. TO NO AVAIL.
Turkey will — if needed — keep moving forward. Damascus and Russia will — as was the case of Afrin — just stand aside.
For anyone still thinking that Kurds are innocents, and are not going to milk are they can from all sides — is deluded. And Syria cannot finalize peace, pass constitution and have elections until Kurds will not commit to the Syrian state, and give up armed forces. But with US holding out carrots — no progress is made. And this state cannot be allowed to settle.
It is amazing that the author does not know what happened at Al-Bab. The first entry into Syria happened from birder town Jarabulus to Al-Bab. ISIS took this corridor, and it was predictable that US was going to help Kurds take it. If Turkey did not preempt the move, Kurds would have established a link between Raqqa, across Al-Bab to Afrin, and linked two Kurd enclaves, including control of Syrian-Turkish border.
Syria was in no position to conduct operations in the region. Russia could not get involved as it would antagonize Kurds and would antagonize US. Turkey, on the other hand — had a legitimate reason to defeat ISIS , while securing Al-Bab corridor. This was the KEY battle in the entire Syrian war. US did everything to prevent this, and Kurds actually helped ISIS against Kurds. In the end Russian Air Force joined Turkish Air Force to take Al-Bab. Turkey and Syrian Forces gave been since that time sharing the border.
The fact that Kurds are challenging Al-Bab is outrageous. The message here is to Turkey, Russia and Syria — we are here to give you trouble anytime and anywhere.
Turkey is right. This challenge is a proof that Russia is not making headway with Kurds, and US is clearly giving Kurds all the reasons for not accepting Syrian offer.
And as Turkey cannot accept any form of Kurdish independent armed entity — the stalemate will have to be addressed.