In a potentially huge complication for the Turkey-Russia ceasefire, Turkey has gotten into combat with Syrian troops in northern Syria, as fighting around Ras al-Ayn, a town in north Syria, turns deadly.
An exchange of Syrian and Turkish gunfire has left at least 6 Syrian soldiers dead, and 18 others were reportedly captured alive. Turkey reported they are coordinating this matter with Russia.
Capturing Syrian troops in a Syrian town, inside Syria, during an illegal invasion is going to be a difficult situation for Turkey to deal with, and while Russia likely wants to prevent the situation from escalating they’re also an ally of Syria and can’t possibly let Turkey just aggress openly against them like this.
This is the downside, for Turkey, in making a deal with Russia instead of the US. The US would not have cared about Turkey attacking Syria, or even keeping Syrian towns in the “safe zone.” The Russian deal always implied the safe zone would not allow Turkey to seize Syrian-controlled towns and cities.
Looking at the Wiki Syrian Civil War map, the Turkish zone is bounded by the highway running south and one running north-south to the west of Ras al Ayn. Ras al Ayn seems well insulated from the nearest official SAA positions.
Maybe the Kurds pawned off one of their towns in retreating, to an overly ambitious Syrian Arab popular militia, not the Syrian Arab Army itself.
Turkey wants to isolate Kurds in Turkey from Kurds in Syria, as well as have their FSA militia dominate the cross-border smuggling activity. Some Kurds may see their only hope in getting Syria and Turkey fighting, and the U.S. wouldn’t mind.
Not much chance, though. Assad can talk tough, but only Russia can act. Popular militias give everyone a fair amount of combat flexibility, but the tacit agreement between the U.S., Russia, and Turkey does not appear to allow any Syrian military presence in Ras al Ayn.
Assad talks tough and Turkey talks tough — but these are their roles. Assad MUST be the protector of Kurds, which means bashing Turkey. Kurds — civilians — must flock to Damascus, and abandon statehood dreams that US and YPG nurtured.
Turkey must talk tough against Assad — but its position is very much Russian — to respect Syrian statehood, borders and whoever wins elections. Because they are seen as not Assad supporters, Turkey is seen as savior of Arabs and Turkmen of border region — region that was in their eyes abandoned by Assad, and had to fight for self-preservation.
Be that paid by Saudis, Turkey, Qatar or US — they have split along two broad groups, anti-Kurd (Turkey and Qatar) and pro-American Free Syrian Army (US, Saudi Arabia).
What changed this area drastically was advancement of ISIS and US elevating Kurds. US did not move a finger when ISIS beat Free Syrian Army and all the Turkish-Qatari Islamists. In a blink of an eye — ISIS controlled string of villages snd towns along border and large towns like Manbij and Raqqa. All militants felt abandoned, and some joined ISIS.
This is what Turkey profited from — getting remnants of these formerly US oriented groups to turn anti-American. US did offer Free Syrian Army remnants to join YPG in SDF, but condition was
Kurdish command. This did not work — and former US groups went under Turkish influence. And when Turkey broke ISIS dominance by defeating them at Jarabulus, cutting through ISIS belt from Jarabulus to Al-Bab using Free Syrian Army and former Saudi paid Islamists — it was clear that the grand plan of Kurds “liberating” border towns as an excuse to connect to Afrin — was dead. Turkey remained the saint protector of disillusioned along the border — now united against Kurd dominance.
Turkey will remain in this role until Idlib is resolved — to pry off all militants from Al-Qaeda/White Helmets. Once that is done, foreign assets will have to be extricated from Idlib, others just defeated. At that point — borders to Iraq need clarifying. Some are controlled by Iraq snd Syria, while US controls others, and Israel attacks them under excuse of targeting Iranians.
But one thing at a time. First Turkish border. Then Iraqi, and Jordanian.
… Hmmm. GCC rivalry makes them willing cash cows; how they act against Syria doesn’t matter as long as they do.
The Kurds don’t need Assad’s protection and Assad can’t really offer anyone hard protection. This was the big test of Ocalan’s Rojava, stateless Kurd nationalism within their existing states. The Rojavans failed miserably and abandoned Syria’s indigenous power-sharing agreement and protection of a united Syria. Allawites rule Syria by majority consent; they are the weakest major ethnicity. The strongest are the Sunni Arabs, which split between moderates and extremists during the Arab Spring. The moderates held true to Syria. The Kurds sold out to bidders near and far.
Ocalan’s vision seems hijacked from the moment his writings were allowed from prison. Few Kurds understood Rojavan philosophy let alone the anarchy of Bookchin Ocalan drew upon. Kurd Marxists stealth-herded the movement back to their statist roots; stateless nationalism never stopped looking like embryonic statehood. Kurd paramilitaries are model hierarchies, not realizations of egalitarianism. Rojava became high-sounding emotional propaganda, the useful lie disguising separatism and service to foreign proxy war. Throughout Mesopotamia, Kurds easily become instruments of division, not ethnic, state and regional unity.
What Kurds ‘must’ do is their choice. Ocalan’s lonely vision of unifying stateless nationalism WITHIN states requires Kurdish cross-national identity to adopt diplomatic and cultural middleman roles in Mesopotamia, a void Iran is doing better to fill. Doing what doesn’t work, the usual short-sighted Kurdish politics of rivalry, division, separatism, and opportunistic alliances, are acted upon accordingly by neighbors and fair weather allies.
A real Rojava would yeild state manifestations of authority to the legitimate Syrian state. Yet when Assad called upon Afrin to cede sovereign control, Afrin Kurds instead asserted sovereign neutrality, miscast as ‘autonomy’. De-facto rejection of the Syrian state was not something Russia could defend, so they pulled out of Afrin. An Afrin Kurdish state-in-being was even more intolerable to Turkey, which promptly removed it. On any ethnic distribution map that includes Turkey, Rojava appears as little more than minor extensions of far larger wannabe Turkish Kurdistan.
Then, the Kurds allied with the U.S. in NE Syria. Making foreign alliances is a fundamental, exclusive nation-state privilege. The Kurds again denied Syrian state sovereignty and legitimacy, and set up another proto Kurdistan. Which Turkey partially removed. Kurds also lack disciplined unity among themselves; Kurd should not fight Kurd. However, many foreign volunteers found themselves at odds with their units, caught up in ubiquitous ground level Kurd feuds.
This, then is the real level of Kurdish statecraft and foundation for nation-statehood; discordant opportunism forcing partition of existing countries. Not Ocalan’s hippies. Even shattered Iraq can’t be made the first domino to fall. Iraqi Kurdistan was to be NATO’s next Kosovo gangster state, and fell the moment Iraqis united and pushed back.
Turkey could hardly be seen as a saviour; Erdogan aided foreign invaders and plundered Syria. ‘Savior’ implies a moral element above strongman-ism. The idea that Islamic militants could feel ‘abandoned’ to IS also makes no sense. They were loyal to money and extremism and could no more be honestly pro-U.S. than fundamentally opposed to an Islamic State. CIA ratlines would be seen as the hand of Allah compelling nonbeleivers to serve jihad.
You’ve got the border question right from the wrong perspective. Trump has secured the mid NE Syrian border using Turkey. If Idlib falls anytime soon, Turkey and U.S./NATO also now have a place to resettle displaced Idlib terrorists. The Russian-Syrian coalition will love that.
The Syrian eastern Iraqi and southeastern Jordanian borders are already secured by geographical isolation. Syrian pop militias can’t cross Euphrates chokepoints or desert reaches in force without being picked off by U.S. artillery and air power.
Your take Bianca?
Uh…wait. What about Syria’s faithful “allies” – Iran, Hezbollah & Russia? Terrified of the Turk?
Like Prez. Trump saidf, let Turkey and Russia deal with it, should be most interesting! BTW, let the USA get ALL nukes out of Turkey, NOW!!
I agree, Jay, DJT’s right in saying, let Turkey and Russia deal with this matter ., it should be most interesting, to say the least. Oh, btw, let the US get all nukes out of Turkey, yesterday.
Yup, trump waddles away from another one of his bankrupt enterprises….there, you guys can fix it now
Dave, you mean Obama, hillary and jonnie boi’!! Trump is anti-war for sure.
No one waddles butt spanky……..
Are they really “Syrian soldiers?” Maybe they are. However, large parts of the Syrian forces are like all the other forces in Syria, just militia factions with fluctuating names. They fight each other on their own side. Sometimes they change sides. Sometimes they are on more than one side, such as both American and al Qaeda, or both Turkish and anti-Turk (but also anti-Kurd).
It is such a mess than more clarity is needed in this reporting even to guess what this means. Depending on the faction involved, the Syrians could be happy to have these guys cut back to size. Or not.
Then again, it could be Syrian Regular Army, uniform wearing recruited into national service. But there are not so many of those, and they tend to be used as “fire brigades” rather than for routine things like this seems to have been.
True in theory, it is known in history, civil war fighters will often join the side which appears to have the most arms and support. This was true in the US civil war, where men would join the side that captured the local armory.
Let us not jump to conclusions. Fighting in Ras Al Ayn? There is a clear understanding in the agreement in the status of Ras Al Ayn, Tel Abyad and everything in between. Turkey is not done with Kurdish militants there. The area was the key to all smuggling as it is on birder, and Turkish Kurds just across the border. From ISIS oil, to fighters coming from Europe, to arms smuggling along Turkish side destined for Syrian militants. It is an Arab town, both are. That is Turkey’s point — Kurds have since 2011 established military rule — trying to make it look as if by consensus.
Think about the premise — US would have given Turkey free hand, as opposed to Russians? Nothing can be further from truth. US has by design propped up first Saudi- financed Islamists, then Kurds — and has been very tepid about actually fighting ISIS at first. All of this AGAINST Turkey’s core interests and red lines. We often , without knowing, repeat neocon lines. One of them is that Turkey was the one supporting anti-Assad Islamic groups, and even traded with ISIS. Such rubbish. Turkey, with Qatar’s help FOUGHT against Saudi and US sponsored Islamic groups by funding their own local groups. The difference was in US-Saudi FAVORING Kurds — Turkish-Qatari, opposing them. You can read up on this in bio of former Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef.
US by design wanted to cut Turkey off from Levant, Iraq and Gulf. And Kurds on Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi border were the key.
No, Turkey is not interested in Syrian territory. Turkey, Syria and Russia have same goal —eliminate Kurdish armed militias from border, and separate Syrian Kurds from PKK. They have a goal of returning Arab population to the border area. Most Turkish Syrian militants come from this area and were victims of ethnic cleansing. Many come from former Free Syrian Army that US abandoned in favor of Kurds, and former Saudi paid Islamists abandoned by US and Saudis back in 2017.
There is no reason for Syrian Army to be this close to Turkish operations. But Turkey may not easily vouch for its militants — although they are in uniforms and take command from Turkey.
There is huge animosity against Kurds for taking their homes, and Syrian Army is seen correctly as Kurdish civilian protectors. Vigilante justice is a real danger in the area — especially as Syrian and Russian forces announced that Kurdish civilians should not be affected by operation against militants within 30 km zone. This is something Turkish militants do not like.
The incident will be clear soon enough. What makes me wonder is the excitement such incidents generate. As if it is GIVEN that Syria and Turkey are mortal enemies — and Russia will find it difficult to manage.
A stupid theory. Turkey, Iran and Russia are guarantors of peace in Syria. All demand that Syrian territorial integrity is restored. And to achieve that — Syria must get control of its borders. At present — for the first time since 2011 — Syrian birder with Turkey will be secured by removing Kurdish militants from the border. There is more work on this going Westwards, but for now — critical is the stretch abandoned by US, and regulated by Russia-Turkey deal. The deal APPROVED by Damascus. All parties have COMMON goals and common interests.
While incidents cannot be ruled out — the common clear understanding on roles, responsibilities and territorial objectives— will not change. Turkey will not tolerate any protection of YPG or SDF. Syrian Army protects Kurdish civilians. There are many opportunities for problems right there, as the transition between militants and civilians is often seamless.
Turkish soldiers in Murak won’t be pleased when unspeakable videos of the treatment of captive Syrian soldiers reaches SAA there.
Turkey is fully responsible for the action of it’s medieval jihadist cutthroat gangs. This is how Turks will be treated when captured.
We need to remember Turkey is utilizing Al Qaeda militias as their front line troops so Syrian soldiers will most certainly see them as Terrorists not Turkish Combatants..
Not a US problem, Russia will sort it out.