Speaking on Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reported
that there will be at least one observation post staying in northern
Syria, under the control of the Turkish military. That will be just northeast of the city of Manbij.
Turkey had originally wanted 12 observation posts in northeastern Syria under the US plan, but yesterday suggested they were scrapping that plan under the Russia deal, with joint Russia-Turkey patrols meaning less concern on the Turkish side.
That Turkey is still insisting on a zone near Manbij, however, may
suggest this remains a sore spot under the new deal. Turkey’s invasion
was clearly intending to target Manbij as a city to occupy early, and a
Kurdish YPG deal with Syria precluded that, ceding Manbij and Kobane to
the Syrian government to defend.
With Russia now in the area, Manbij just isn’t going to get occupied by
Turkey, and for the time being, Turkey may decide to just set up camp in
the “observation area” on the outskirts of the city indefinitely.
Complete misinterpretation. And is caused by not understanding that Turkey, Russia and Syria have coordinated all political and military moves, Turkey never expected US to fulfill any promises made about removing YPG from border, or disarming them, or making then withdraw from Manbij. But had to go through the full gamut of motions to get to the end of the road.
Common goals by FIVE countries, Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran and Iraq are:
1.
Eliminate US presence from North East tristate area, by eliminating Kurdistan-related rationale for US presence there,
2.
Consolidate control over territory and borders; Syria concurs with plan to remove YPG from 30 km border area m, and 10km border subsequently patrolled jointly by Turkey and Russia; allowing them to share intelligence on militancy on both sides of border; this arrangement is indefinite,
3. Towns such as Kobane, Manbij and Raqqa are taken over by Syrian Army and Russian police. For different reasons — Kobane, a Kurd majority populated, for protection, Manbij, Arab majority populated but ethnically cleansed by Kurds, for preventing vigilante justice, and targeted for redevelopment and refugee resettlement. Raqqa for major cleanup of mines and restoration of water and electricity, redevelopment and refugee resettlement.
4.
Turkey has reevaluated need for checkpoints under US plan, and will not need them. But Manbij is critical for two reasons: not giving YPG/SDF any illusion that they could stay in Manbij and that Kurds that took Arab homes can stay. While no Turkish Syrian militia will be there to threaten their lives — does not mean they can keep what they took. Also, resettlement plans involve Turkey in several capacities.
5.
Notice Iraq involvement. Iraq will join Astana process as observer. It is critical that PKK that infiltrated Iraq does not have any part of the border. Securing those borders — not yet sure how far South-East, is to secure energy flow across Iraq from both Qatar and Iran, secure roads and rail for Belt and Road investments.
It is clear that this goes over Iraqi Kurdish territory, while US is continually bombing Iraqi border further South — under excuse of Iranian presence.
This Iraq-Jordan corner of Syria remains of US special interest. For now.