With the US-Turkey ceasefire in northeast Syria coming to an end on Tuesday night, Turkey accused the US of failing. Fighting isn’t immediately resuming, however, as Turkey reached a second ceasefire deal with Russia, this time a 150 hour one.
The terms of the new deal are broadly similar, and Kurd-centric. Under the new deal, Russia is promising that Russian military police and Syrian border forces will enter the safe zone to facilitate the expelling of the Kurdish YPG by the end.
The US had promised to get the YPG out of the area by the end of the previous deal. Kurdish officials claimed nearly 800 fighters had left the area, and that this was all of them. That seems to have been good enough for the US, but Turkey’s President Erdogan says 1,200 more are still there, and those are what Russian forces are to get out.
This deal, like the US deal, is intended to keep northeastern Syria from erupting into full-scale war, and likely is intended to also keep Turkey from attacking Kobane and Manbij, cities that the YPG already ceded to the Syrian government.
The ceasefire explicitly mentions Manbij, and the importance of getting the YPG out of there. Though the US has denied that any Kurds were in the Arab-majority city, Turkey claimed at least one Kurdish attack was launched directly out of the city recently, and clearly the Erdogan government isn’t inclined to believe the US.
Turkey seems to appreciate that the expulsion of the Kurds is no small feat, and trying to do it themselves would be internationally condemned, which is why they are choosing to let the US, and now Russia, do it for them.
Make sure they drop their arms and sign a deal with Assad in 24 hours to stay in Syria. This is the end game.
Its BOTH Russian and Syrian forces that will clear a 30km deep area from ypk/pkk. Turkey did only manage to occupy a 10km zone out of the 30 they desired except for the middle part of the border rest is guarded by Syria and Russia:
1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.
2. They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.
3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.
4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.
5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of…
… 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km, except Qamishli city.
6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat. 7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements. 8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.
9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.
10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.
Thank you. This is a plan for managing the security zone, which will clearly be of varying depth, simply because the Syrian-Russian takeover of major cities — major Arab city of Manbij and Kurdish city of Kobane.
This is completely preempting NATO noises, such as German’s Annegret Kramp Karenbauer’s proposal of NATO being included in patrolling the security area.
It is amazing how European countries and US have difficulty understanding that some issues have nothing to do with them.
What is happening is logical. Between Ras Al Ayn and Tel Abyad Turkey is holding current 32 km area, and the issue is remaining armed Kurds. What has happened is possible simply because Turkey threatened to do it alone — so how can now US complain if Syrian forces took control of its borders East and West of Turkish Operation Peace Spring. This is intriguing. In the east, they are not entering Quamishli. But going Westward — how far?
It is really good that it will be Syria and Russia clearing 30km, and them patrols will resume i side ten. This is understandable.
I suspect that refugee return will not be linked to inly these zones. And it will be linked with a major reconstruction from various sources.
Seems the time frames are imminent, and not allowing for anything Washington calls “vacuum”.
It’s all about the oil, baby. Who gets the 385,000 barrels per day of crude oil that Syria was producing in 2010? Those 300 or so US troops guarding the oil wells are soon going to have some Syrian Arab Army fighters backed up by the Russians knocking on their door with an eviction notice. That will be the end of Israel’s dream of controlling Syrian oil production through the Kurds, and the end of US meddling in Syria.