The US-led coalition has issued a statement confirming that all US and
coalition troops are out of the Syrian city of Manbij, saying that as
part of the “deliberate withdrawal from northeast Syria, we are out of Manbij.“
Manbij is far from empty, however, with Syrian Army forces quickly advancing into the city, taking the strategically valuable formerly ISIS-held city, which the Kurds agreed to cede to them over the weekend to defend from invading Turkish forces.
Where this leaves the Turkish invasion is not entirely clear, as
President Erdogan says Turkey is not strictly opposed to Syrian troops
entering Manbij, but demands that Kurdish “militants” all be forced to leave.
With Erdogan establishing the Kurdish presence as a standard on Manbij,
Turkish-backed rebels are eagerly trying to turn that into a talking
point, claiming that it wasn’t the Syrian Army, but Kurdish “militants” who had entered Manbij on Tuesday.
Turkey’s government seems to be supporting that narrative too, accusing Kurdish fighters of launching an attack out of Manbij earlier Tuesday which killed one Turkish soldier and wounded eight others. They said 15 Kurds were “neutralized” in retaliation.
There is no disagreement between Turkey and Syria. Kurdish YPG is not in charge. But Syria has many places to take over from YPG and is not particularly focused on the whereabouts if militants. I would not be shocked if Kurdish militants took their chance at unsuspecting Turks. This is why Turkey us adamant. And if Syria is not careful, it may end up having an armed secessionists on their hands.
Turkey prefers Syrian Army taking charge and getting its territory back. But will probably watch carefully how YPG will be handled,
With Russia now interposing between Turkish and Syrian forces, your analysis is sounding increasingly wise. This is starting to look like good Russian-Turkish diplomacy to avoid serious escalation, knock back Kurdish/US ambitions in the area, and restore government control over nearly all of Syria soon.
Turkey isn’t above letting their militant militia forces seize some opportunities if they present themselves, but between Russia, Syria and the Kurds defending, the invasion won’t get too far.
This was the inevitable end game, and Trump’s withdrawal order broke from the Neocon dream of regime change to make this inevitability happen … sooner rather than late. Bravo! Deal with it! The Trump-haters hate this, and will ***NEVER*** acknowledge the fact of bold, effective leadership, but there it is, acknowledged or not.