The US forces in northern Syria long served as a de facto buffer force, positioned in between Turkey and both the Syrian government and Syrian Kurds. With US forces withdrawing, Russia is taking over that role, moving into that space the US formerly filled.
For Russia, it’s a bit more pro-active than what the US was doing. Russia describes its forces as patrolling along the “line of contact” between Turkey and Syria, and that’s a key aspect of why they are there. In addition to patrols, Russia has also taken over at least one former US base in the area, one hastily abandoned by US forces.
Russia, after all, is a close ally to Syria, and keen to support them. At the same time, Russia has tried to maintain ties with Turkey to keep the situation on the border from falling apart. Even now, Russia is engaging with both parties.
That’s something the US would’ve never done as a buffer force. The US has ties with Turkey as a consequence of NATO membership, and was aligned with the Kurdish forces in Syria, but refused to officially talk with Syria, and US diplomats seemed to go out of their way to undercut any regional diplomacy on Syria, believing it would weaken their vision for a post-war Syria, a regime change and a US-friendly government replacing a long-standing Russian ally. The US never thought much of anyone else’s goals, even the Kurds’ hopes for autonomy were dismissed by US officials who wanted a strong central government in Syria.
That the US cut the Kurds loose surprised no one, least of all the Kurds. While the US had tried to keep them from publicly negotiating with the Assad government, for the past year Kurdish officials had kept secret back channels to Damascus and Moscow wide open, meaning when the Trump Administration decided that the Kurds were no longer an American interest, they had options on who to turn to.
While it’s not clear what Russia is going to do for the Syrian Kurds, their presence at all likely complicates parts of the Turkish invasion, particularly where they are coming up against Kurdish towns that were handed over to the Syrian government to defend. The last thing Turkey wants is to start a fight with Russia on foreign soil.
In one fell swoop, all the pieces for the Astana agreement fell into place. Now it seems there will be a finite limit to how far into Syria the Turkish air and arty support will go in supporting the takfiris. From what I’ve seen, those guys are not very well equipped to take on the SAA without the Turks. If Turkey declares mission accomplished now that the SAA is in town and the Kurdish question is being resolved, then the SAA can clean up what’s left of the militants…It’s possible…
And very likely. Turkish militants are from the region, not outsiders, and will be represented in Constitutional Committee.
Mop up will be Idlib. There are foreign elements there. But Idlib must be paying attention.
Very good analysis up to a point of complicating Turkish invasion. This is to miss a water falling out of boat. Turkey has ZERO interest in Kurds the moment they recognize Syrian government as sovereign with no territorial pretensions,
in fact, last year there was a mini-crisis at Manbij and Kurds were “negotiating “ about turning it over, Turkey made sure everybody understands that Kurds relinquishing territorial ambitions and being run from Damascus is fine with them.
Turkey will have to take over townships that are on the border. Neither Russia nor Syria will interfere. The reason? Those places have Arab majority but the Kurds were overlords. Reason? All venues for smuggling arms and supplies along Turkish border between PKK and YPG were conducted there.
I would be surprised if these townships get back under Syrian control before elections.
For YPG this is the end of the road. They cannot any longer prevent towns and villages throughout Euphrates valley, and Deir Azzor from flying Syrian flag. Can US forbid it in Al-Tanf?
Bianca,
Just goes to show that there is a need for an impartial judge in the Mid East – and Russia will fill that role – America has its nose too far up the Zionist’s butt to qualify – and they don’t even seem to see that.
Yes, this is a tragedy — nit even being aware of the blindness.
But partially I think it is also due to our sense of supremacy. Reality does not matter, we say. We ARE the reality, we create the reality according to our design. We still act under that delusion throughout the world. We aim to WIN according to our design. But if that does not happen, we create a deep seated mistrust of US intentions for a long time to come.
Syria was a masterpiece, a master class in how regional cooperation can outmaneuver a great, but not too smart power.
I have a distinct feeling that the trio that pulled this off (I suspect with help from many others), knows that NATO is deeply disturbed by Turkey example. And that they are planning all sorts of malicious and vindictive things. They are not used to be manhandled like this. The woke NATO needs to wake up.
He won’t leave al-Tanf because he is a fraud.
I am really curious if US will still be stick in the mud snd not support Constitutional Committee meeting, the first one out of Astana and under UN auspices.
US acts like al-Tanf isn’t even there. Our media never mentions it at all. Highly doubtful the Pentagon would participate or condone officially the CC meeting, which would affirm US presence as ongoing and criminal.
It will show exactly what these ruling folks are all about. They will stay waiting fir second coming.
The Russians did not send more troops to Syria.
The Russians never had very many troops in Syria.
It is therefore very easy to over-emphasize the Russian role. It is also a very hawk thing to do. Hawks are the ones doing the talking now, and they are quite deliberately extremely misleading.
What troops the Russians had, though, were well positioned and there legally. Can’t say the same about the USA. Obama and his merry band of lady hawks put us in Syria to do a “color revolution” that would turn the oil-producing regions of Syria over to Israel. It was illegal from the get-go. The sooner Trump pulls them out, the better.
I wholeheartedly agree with you, Thomas Carlson. Russia’s troops were very well positioned and in Syria legally. The same can’t be said for the US/UK/France. Obama and his merry band of lady hawks put us in Syria w/o our approval to do a “color revolution” in Syria that would’ve turned the oil-producing areas of Syria over to Israel. It was illegal from the get-go.
DJT already withdrew over 1,000 troops from Syria and has withdrawn another 1,000 from the country’s border with Turkey, leaving a contingent of Special Forces in the southern region of Syria.
You are making a very important point. Our leadership and media are ignorant, and they shoot from the hip — to make whatever points they prefer.
Russia has a large contingent, but a huge contingent is in so called “Reconciliation Centers”. They understood the chaos created by the very multifaceted regime change operations. As a result, many communities were forced into self-defence, creating even more groups in the process.
The level of mistrust was high, as Army was fighting on so many fronts, and could not defend everyone. The reconciliation operation was actually rebuilding local governance where it was shattered in uprisings, followed by Islamists, Al-Qaeda, etc. The communities signed s contract to incorporate themselves back into State structure, with money coming from the Government, food relief provided through centers, while armed militants became police, fire, social services. They received training and a liaison. Second large contingent is police. They developed community relations, support to local law enforcement, training, modern equipment. This freed up Syrians for Army. The reconciliation centers also helped former militants to join army. Third large contingent is medical — clinics, everything from communal, to field clinics in remote areas, down to new hospitals and all specializations. Then comes military police helping police checkpoints, buffer zones, There are consultants in everything, from government administration to reconstruction. There are engineering teams, helping with infrastructure repairs, roads, electric, water.
And of course, real military.
So when our leaders talk, their ignorance is vast. Everyone in this forum knows more then they do — and think of salaries they collect.
You are making a very important point. Our leadership and media are ignorant, and they shoot from the hip — to make whatever points they prefer.
Russia has a large contingent, but a huge contingent is in so called “Reconciliation Centers”. They understood the chaos created by the very multifaceted regime change operations. As a result, many communities were forced into self-defence, creating even more groups in the process.
The level of mistrust was high, as Army was fighting on so many fronts, and could not defend everyone. The reconciliation operation was actually rebuilding local governance where it was shattered in uprisings, followed by Islamists, Al-Qaeda, etc. The communities signed s contract to incorporate themselves back into State structure, with money coming from the Government, food relief provided through centers, while armed militants became police, fire, social services. They received training and a liaison. Second large contingent is police. They developed community relations, support to local law enforcement, training, modern equipment. This freed up Syrians for Army. The reconciliation centers also helped former militants to join army. Third large contingent is medical — clinics, everything from communal, to field clinics in remote areas, down to new hospitals and all specializations. Then comes military police helping police checkpoints, buffer zones, There are consultants in everything, from government administration to reconstruction. There are engineering teams, helping with infrastructure repairs, roads, electric, water.
And of course, real military.
So when our leaders talk, their ignorance is vast. Everyone in this forum knows more then they do — and think of salaries they collect.
Firstly, as we all know, US has no legal right to occupy any part of Syria, that is a fact Jason seems to miss (Russia has). Second, everything that the opportunistic Kurds have done up until the US occupation forces left in a haste, suggest they were, contrary to everybody else, genuinely surprised that the US would (for the umpteenth time) cut them loose. And third, Russia could have done a lot for them, a year ago they could have had a broad autonomy of the towns they’ve ethnically cleansed from non- Kurds, had they been in serious negotiation with the Syrian central government instead of backstabbing it and shooting and killing SAA forces in Qamishli on US orders f.ex.
Exactly so. YPG has blown it many times. Like in Afrin. Russia tried to negotiate. YPG was to turn over the Afrin courthouse to Damascus and. allow Syrian Army to control borders. They refused. And guess what — Turkey invaded as promised. YPG kicked out of power.
Then Kurds attacked Syrian military base in Hassakah, even though it was surgiunded and presented no danger. It was barely kept in reduced form. That was just mean for no reason. Now they are happy to have them there.
Basically , this us the third Turkish operation in Syria . One against ISIS and two against Kurds. Turkish army and militants were in proximity to Syrian Army all over the place, and there was no need fir separation.
The hype against Turkey has nothing to do with Kurds — but everything to do with Turkey and NATO.
Everybody is clear on the fact that Turkey forced US hand. It was patient for a year. But it was coming. US had to make a decision — to defend Kurds and nation build — and fight NATO ally. This was a losing hand. And considered Turkey’s fault fir delivering Russia a victory.
US officials are visiting Turkey — I am sure to deliver some harsh messages.
After that — Erdogan is visiting Moscow.
Just yesterday, UAE waited on Putin with a plane coloring the sky in colors of Russian flag. Major commercial deals with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
US will be highly displeased with Turkey for refusing to be a good vassal.
But it is too early to celebrate. The Constitution Committee will meet October 30.
See how brilliant Putin is, even with a matter like scheduling. Let Pence and Pompeo come to Erdogan and talk.. then it’s straight to Moscow with what he learns. Turkey is a Russian ally now.
And has been in the making since 2012, but it took until 2016 for Turkish internal politics to overcome regime-change forces. From then on, cooperation in all fronts took off.
But now, it is in the open.
Good news! Russian Armed Forces display courage & efficiency, qualities sadly lacking in placid, over-fed American military leadership.
I fully agree with that statement, longlance. Yes, Russian Armed Forces display courage and efficiency, qualities sorely lacking in placid, over-fed US military leadership, That’s the chief reason the US has no chance of ever winning a war against Russia.
Did you see the warmongering CNN moderators and Mayor ButtPete go after Tulsi at the debate last night. With the exception of Tulsi, every Dem candidate appears to be a forever war hopeful.