When they invaded northern Syria last week, Turkey indicated that their intention was to capture the 30 km band at the border as a “safe zone.” Though they are far from controlling all that territory, they are already signaling their intentions to go farther.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that troops will be moving against the city of Manbij and will “settle Arabs there” under terms of a deal previously reached with the US on expelling the Kurds from the city, which the US never did. Turkey-backed rebels have confirmed they’ve already launched an offensive against the city.
Turkey has long insisted the Kurds must be expelled from Manbij, an Arab majority city. Though the northernmost part of the city lies within 30 km of the border, much of the city would represent Turkey going beyond their previously defined goals.
The big complication is not a 30+ km offensive to Manbij, however. Under a weekend deal, the Kurds already ceded the defense of Manbij to the Syrian government, and Syrian Army forces are in Manbij preparing to defend it.
Far from attacking Kurdish paramilitaries, something the Turkish Army does as a matter of course, and often on very little pretext, invading Manbij now means attacking the Syrian Army inside a Syrian city, potentially a fight with much broader implications.
There is much sophistry in this article for my taste. Let’s use plain language.
City of Manbij was taken over by ISIS. When SDF and US liberated Manbij —- by letting ISIS go to Raqqa — two unexpected things happened. In a heavily majority Srab and Turkmen city — US allowed Kurd militia to stay inside the city — and instead of reinstating Srab city council, SDF created its own command to run the city. Then, large scale ethnic cleansing occurred. People list their property, and elite, such as business people, lawyers, teachers, police, were targeted and forced to leave.
And it is TRUE — US did tell Kurds to leave. That does not mean inhabitants who happen to be Kurds, but US very publicly said that Kurd militants must go. Those who took property must go. Announcement was made very public and that made us look like layers.
As for Syrian Army protecting YPG Kurds — please. This story is stale. Last time Turkey threatened— Kurds invited Russia snd Syrian Army, and then kept them in suburbs. Never allowed jn.
This time YPG would have to turn city control to Damascus and exit the city. Turkey would prefer Syrian government to take over and sort out property claims.
This time, YPG will have a decision to make. Turn Manbij over for protection of Kobane. No need for anyone to enter — but Kurds themselves must fjnd new leadership.
The Kurds by ideology don’t have the sort of centralized leadership that so delights the West. They don’t believe in it.
Instead, they have a lot of localized decentralized leadership, and some distant “leaders” who don’t have much direct authority.
There are virtues to such a system, but it can’t be dealt with by pretending it is something else entirely.
If Turkey and not just their proxies attack the positions of Syria’s army, and Russia more directly escalates attacks on Turkey, will the US defend our NATO ally Turkey..? If not, is that the end of NATO..? NATO should have ended long ago. US actions seem to be determined by who we hate the most, and we have lots of hatred for Syria, Turkey and Russia. How the pundits will tie themselves into a pretzel, or will they just be delighted that there are more excuses for the US to intervene violently?
The Syrian Army has proven to be more than a match for the Al Qaeda militias Turkey is using for this invasion. I think this time with a little Russian support Syria will prevail. I suspect the celebrations are muted in Manbij but the Yankee retreat must meet with universal approval there.
Syrian Army is in full control of Manbij. It took a threat of Turkish militia for YPG to see the light.
Turkish militia consists of people who were cleansed by Kurds when YPG took over. There would have been vigilante killing. Syrian Army will prevent that.
From a post by TTG (The Twisted Genius) over at Colonel Pat Lang’s blog, here is the details of the deal reached over the weekend:
Quote:
This information is from JohninMK who posted this comment on another thread. He is reposting a twitter thread from Danny Makki from London who
describes himself as a recovering Damascene and Syria analyst.
This is a twitter post, I hope I can post it here. The SAA have already
taken over the whole Al-Taqba area including the dam and airfield. As an
indication of how welcome the SAA are it seems that most of the
soldiers are being transported in buses. This is the tweet. Danny Makki
@Dannymakkisyria 2 hours ago These are the main points in the agreement between the SDF and the Syrian government.
1/ The abolishment of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), with all the
current Kurdish forces and military groups joining the 5th Corps
(Assault Legion) under Russian control 3:12 AM – 14 Oct 2019
2/ A solid guarantee of full Kurdish rights in the new Syrian
constitution with autonomy which will be agreed upon by Kurdish
leadership & Syrian state.
3/ Joint coordinated effort by Syrian/Kurdish forces to remove Turkish
presence in northern Syria including Afrin (Idleb doesn’t count)
4/ Manbej & Kobani were agreed upon for SAA to enter quickly, whilst
Hasakeh has seen a wide scale deployment of Syrian troops, this will
continue in Qamishly and other joint areas
5/ With Syrian forces now on the border area with Turkey it’s clear that
this starts a new phase in the 8-year-long war where some sort of
endgame is now taking shape – all border areas and administrational
centres will be taken over by the Syrian government
6/ Within one month Kurdish leadership with start to take up some
official roles within the current Syrian government to ease the
transition period of N. #Syria until an new constitution/government is
formed in the future
7/ Tabqa in Raqqa was also on the agreement, Syrian forces entered the
city and took control of the military airbase earlier today
8/ Russia had brokered a similar deal a few days ago, yet it was rejected by Damascus who wanted more concessions from the SDF.
9/ As per-agreement Syrian forces entered Ein Issa in N. Raqqa today
10/ The agreement between SDF and Syrian gov is yet to be fully
completed, the finer details will be fleshed out over the next four
days.
11/ For now all ISIS prisoners remain under the control of the Kurds
12/ The agreement thus far is effectively a military one, based on
self-defense and mutual interest with a number of set aims. The
governance/land delegation/isis prisoners part will follow later
13/ Syrian forces will deployed on the entirety of the border with
Turkey, this is the first time in 6 years that the Syrian army will have
a serious presence in N. East Syria
14/ Although Manbej is one of the cities that the Syrian army would take
according to the agreement, the situation there is still tense and it
is unclear exactly who will control it.
15/ Breaking: reports of imminent Turkish attack on Manbej
Prior to yesterday’s developments, I’ve see reports of Turkish
bridging equipment approaching the river separating the SDF from the
Turks/jihadis north of Manbij. It seemed pretty obvious they intended to
take Manbij as part of their offensive. The buildup of SAA forces south
of Manbij appeared to be part of an effort to prevent that crossing.
The SAA not only intends to prevent the Turks from moving further south,
but the SAA fully intends to take Afrin. That will make Idlib much less
tenable.
End Quote