Reports from those familiar with indirect negotiations say that Yemen’s
Saudi-backed government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC)
separatist group are close to a deal that would end fighting over the southern port, and de facto capital, of Aden.
The STC, and its supporters in the United Arab Emirates, are presently
in control of Aden. Under the deal, the port would temporarily be handed
to Saudi Arabia, to form a new “neutral” security force including
militias from both sides.
The deal would also see the Saudi-backed government nominally back under
control, with the STC getting some representation in the government’s
decision-making. The form of that representation is as yet undecided.
The STC has always viewed any alliance with the government as temporary.
While the government considers itself the government (mostly in exile)
of all of Yemen, the STC wants to reform South Yemen after the war, and
has sought to ensure it doesn’t get sidelined within its historic
territory, which is about all the government actually holds.
Unless the STC / UAE have something big to guarantee Saudi follow-through, this is nothing but total surrender to the Saudis, who will give up nothing if not forced.
Hope you see that UAE is not exactly an angel on this convoluted saga.
Absolutely… they’re foreign meddlers just like the Saudis, just not as strong as the Saudis.
This looks like a beginning of the end. Southern secessionists are now asserting their right to establish independent state, by all accounts with similar borders as the former south Yemen.
This is good because the illusion of unitary state represented by Hadi will not have much meaning. Yes, the charade will continue until status of the North Yemen is decided in.
But — by recognizing the secessionists — Saudis are signaling big time that separation is an option. Saudi Arabia has several aces up its sleeve. Key regions of the South it has influence over because many current Saudi billionaires draw their ancestry from several former Sultanates. They have been the source of development in those regions prior to the war, and would certainly prefer Saudi Arabia having influence over the Southern region then anyone else.
North will establish good relations with its big neighbor KSA given a decent chance. Saudi Arabia was providing jobs for decades before the war started. In fact, North Yemen while independent, had very good relationship with Saudi Arabia. Given the recent history — particularly the most vicious phase from 2015 to 2017 — it is not likely that Yemen (Sana’a) will be able to trust without some international guarantees.