The UN General Assembly week is always an awkward time for Saudi Arabia. Even this year, with Saudi efforts to make everything about bolstering anti-Iran sentiment, they couldn’t help but face fresh scrutiny both about civilian casualties in Yemen, and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The Saudis have been ducking culpability in Yemen for years, and the UN Hman Rights Council is once again documenting atrocities by all sides. The Saudis tried, and failed, to cut short the UN investigation.
That’s a noteworthy defeat, as in previous years, deep Western support and desire to lucrative arms sales meant the Saudis were able to get the UN to quietly sweep everything under the rug.
And while the Trump Administration continues to ignore the Khashoggi murder, it’s clear everyone else remembers. This forced Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to admit, in an upcoming documentary, that he bears “all the responsibility” for what happened, while continuing to insist he didn’t know ahead of time Khashoggi was going to be strangled to death and dismembered in a Saudi consulate.
Khashoggi was a critic of Saudi policy who lived in exile, and was killed at the consulate by a “kill team” which included a lot of close associates of the prince, making his denial of knowledge hard to believe.
But, but but the Clown Prince Bonesaw buys our weapons…
I continue to be shocked by the low quality — pathetically low — of analysis related to Saudi Arabia, war on Yemen and other significant entanglement of Western military, intelligence and influence peddling among Saudi elites.
Forgive the length, but if it helps others to research the topic — it will serve the purpose.
The official narratives on Yemen war continues, and just as the version of Kashoggi murder sails apace.
Just because we do not like Saudi Arabia and its role in supporting Islamic groups and causes — does not give us the luxury to wallow in ignorance. Many things have changed and the danger to global peace is becoming more real.
Let us take war in Yemen. Wikipedia is considering splitting the subject by adding Western involvement in Yemen war. About time.
The change of KSA rulers has always been of vital interest to US, as this is a grand opportunity to influence regime change — without it being obvious. The system in place is a front — KKSA decisions are made in secrecy. This is why influence peddling is a must.
As a minimum we must start with coming to throne of current monarch, King Salman. Even though Prince Muqrin was destined to be his Crown Prince, he was in his position ONLY between January and April 2015. Why? Behind the scene American influencers complained about his age, his mother (being a Yemeni slave) etc. The King was hoping Muqrin could appease US by a limited intervention in Yemen. It started on March 25, 2015, to restore Hadi government US wanted.
But US already had a candidate next in line, just needed an excuse to remove Muqrin.
Mohammed bin Nayef, a person in charge of Interior Ministry was next in line.
He was under murky circumstances taken out of his college in US and put into FBI schooling for several years, followed by Scotland Yard. He was the man needed for the “fight against terrorism”, that is — massive funding to Islamic fighters. The names and labels of those groups were confused until ISIS project combined the religious cultism with military and administrative arms to hold territory. From April 2015 when he came to the throne -/ a very muscular policy was put in place to split Iraq and Syria into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish territories. Key to this was mobilizing Sunnis by either voluntary compliance or by religious fear of beheading. Killing their own to have them scared into compliance was a tactics used by Kosovo Albanians, and some of the groups came to Kosovo for consultation. If one believes that US knew nothing of it — Santa Clause would do.
These plans brought Russia into Syria. And subsequent intelligence sharing center in Baghdad between Iraq, Iran and Russia, stopped Iraqi army walking into ISIS traps, and resulted in Iraq liberating itself, getting all Sunni tribes leaders to support Baghdad and ISIS project was over.
Trump determination to fight already finished ISIS project at the time was already beaten was just the means to continue firming up Kurdish rule in strategic Syria-Iraq border.
This plan will collapse as well, as Turkey will not have the US supported toll- booth on its and Iraqi borders.
Nayef started muscular Yemen policy which included bombing cranes in Hodeidah port, roads and irrigation systems, absolutely barbaric approach to forcing people to surrender. US increased naval blockade to devastate cities that depended on imports. Countryside did not have famine, just lack if medicine everywhere. Once infernal food distribution improved, the problem is no longer acute.
What is in it to US? A legitimacy of Yemen government that is compliant so US military will control the straits of Bab Al Mandeb. US already controls Straits of Hormuz — Fifth Fleet us in the Gulf, and can close it anytime, with Iran being the wild card.
But if the Straits between Red Sea and Indian Ocean are under US control, it can for any reason close it, preventing Asian trade to Europe and Egyptian, Sudanese and Saudi trade with Asia. This is what US wants, and this is why US navy maintains blockade of Yemen.
The ruler Crown Prince Nayef has been receiving all sorts of accolades in the West, including CIA George Tennet medal. No concerns from our legislators. None.
US guided ruler presided over the disastrous terrorist proxy build up in the Middle East, that by the beginning of 2017 was obviously losing on all fronts.
Then he also went muscular in Egypt policy, trying to force them to do more in Yemen. And in May 2017 went after Qatar as supporter of terrorism — remember Trump briefly gloating, taking credit? But Qatar did not immediately crumble, got Turkish troops and Iranian goods replacing Saudi imports.
Combination of huge financial loses in proxy terrorism in Syria and Iraq. unsustainable Yemeni policy, complete fiasco in Qatar and alienating Russia, endangering oil price sustainability — all resulted in King’s appeal to Allegiance Council to remove Nayef from all of his positions.
During Nayef’s rule, victorious neocons had bigger plans — plan to remove King for presumably being demented and just vacuously smiling at meetings. Young Nayef was to become King, and his appointment of new Crown Prince, would have assured decades of control.
But what they did not like was King’s appointment of his young son, MBS, educated in Saudi Arabia and without Western leverage in the position of successor.
And when Nayef was removed, MBS became Crown Prince In June 2017. As if on cue, all Western media immediately put all the Yemen war at his feet. And even Qatar fiasco.
The name of Mohammed bin Nayef was never mentioned as if he was not the one doing our bidding for two tears, who received a mountain of Western accolades and medals for what he has done to Yemen.
MVS immediately moved to fix Qatar mess by asking Egypt to organize a conference in Qatar where ALL THE CONDITIONS were changed to PRINCIPLES. The maintenance of distance with Qatar suits Saudis just fine — it does not have to deal with Turkey or Qatar’s links with Iran.
War on Yemen entered new phase. With Saudis just trying to determine their interests not trying to enable US geopolitical goals — the objective narrowed to getting Houthis to recognize Hadi leading to secession from South. Saudis knew that Hadi had support in the South, and that they could negotiate South secession.
But US was furious at that point unleashed UAE paid mercenaries including US private armies, to remove Hadi supporters from South. UAE would normally not dare do anything against Saudis — but apparently were convinced by us that MBS will not last.
That all changed with Kashoggi murder.
For those that still do not get it — murder was orchestrated by MBS enemies to topple him. CUI BONO? Days before all important economic conference in Saudi Arabia, the most important event MBS put together to wean away the Kingdom from oil economy by expanding investment partners — a murder took place. And immediately Western attendees were staying home.
Is it also a coincidence that Turkey had the hit team filled coming on the plane, getting into consulate, complete audio if the murder, hit team leaving. I suspect Turkey had a heads up from other intelligence partners.
This saved MBS. Hit team identified, apprehended and for sure spilled beans on those in charge. The Allegiance Council supported MBS and given him authority to “reorganize” the intelligence.
Whoever higher up in royal hierarchy was involved, those are matters dealt with behind the scenes. Saudi Arabia is ruled by clans, and whatever guilt of individuals — the clans are protected. Basically they solved it internally with MBS coming out stronger.
This is why we see the sudden awakening of humanitarian urges and are shocked over Kashoggi. It is because the rulers of Saudi Arabia are not obedient — no other reason.
As for Kashoggi a key piece of evidence was conversation among assassins minutes before Kashoggi entered the consulate. “Sacrificial lamb has arrived”. This is a conversation that revealed the reason for killing. It was not his anti-Saudi journalism. It was about him being a sacrificial lamb in the plot to blame MBS. The stupidity of the plot was also in making it so repulsive and theatrical — something not needed if a mildly meddlesome journalist was to be silence. He was irrelevant in life, and highly valuable in his death.
Today we are witnessing a huge pressure on Saudis to accept US military on its soil, and very likely to accept US solution for Yemen.
The tight spot they are in is due to indecisive military policy — slow to diversify, assuming that bu buying US arms, they are safe from US wroth.
Will Kingdom survive this pressure? It cannot survive war, as US would see to this that they are deeply damaged — before coming to terms with Iran. Because Iran can wait, while Saudi tasty morsel is here for the taking.
It still amazes me that commentariat is still so shallow and did not notice the key power struggles in Saudi Arabia from January 2015 to June 2017 — when US influence reigned supreme over Crown Prince Muqrin, then his ultimate replacement, CIA best friend, FBI educated, young Mohammed bin Nayef. But all the atrocities are routinely attributed to MbS then defense minister, as if in Saudi Arabia he has power over Crown Prince!
We have in media reporting , analysis and commentary erased all presence of Mohammed bin Nayef, the destroyer of Yemen, the power behind the surge of Islamic, Salafi brand of terrorism, its consolidation into territorial caliphates, modeled after Wahhabi early clan structure. He is the mist decorated Saudi ruler in the West.
Wow… Another Bianca Bonanza!!! One of intrigue & Saudi ineptitude for us to contemplate. I think I must rearrange my understanding to comport with her analysis. Though it’s hard for me to accept that certain of the kill crew who by all accounts were/are very close in their agency with MbS…. would be key players in a plot to topple, or humble him.. Wouldn’t it amount to suicide for these guys and worse for their wives and families…??? Yes, very hard to swallow, but Bianca has an uncanny way of being correct time after time, again & again. I just wish Justin was still around to deliver HIS take on these seedy goings on in the KoSA. It would be interesting to Google the name of the top plotter guy in the embassy snuff and some of the others of the accussed crew to check on their health prospects & position, to see what is known. I do believe the truth will most probably out, but the brain dead nature of using 15 men to do a job which one man could have easily done, also nags at my better instincts of economy of exposure and lose ends to be tugged for info………. I wonder what the Neoconservatives think about thsee turns of events.. They were so puffed up with the Israeli Saudi reproachmont. But the genocidal slaughter of even children in Gaza & even more wholsale outrages in Yemen, & let’s not forget Kashoggi while his betroved waited outside, being dismembered…
doesn’t exactly paint the kind of picture that either of these two rough trade states would want… Or maybe I over rate their sensitivity & underate their love of displaying their inconceivable brutality.
And anyone believes that the hit team knowingly walked out of the plane to commit a theatrical murder — knowing that they will be filmed every step outside the building, and their every word and every sound recorded while inside the consulate. No, they had no intention of endangering themselves and their families. They were intelligence on a mission. The notion of any of them being “close” to MBS is a stretch.
So, why would Turkey had such extraordinary surveillance in place? We cannot know, for sure — but I would assume that there was a reason to suspect a foul play — may be a kidnapping. Kashoggi fiancee was a Turkish citizen, and very likely under surveillance as Kashoggi was a controversial figure. It would not have bern hard for them to intercept communication of him going to the consulate. There must have existed some other corroborating information about an event at the consulate, Bottom line — wall to wall coverage.
It is also a piece of the recording that points to the nature of the murder. In the conversation there is no mention of the victim as a wanted man, anything suggesting his designation as troublesome nuisance. No, they just saud “sacrificial lamb has arrived”.
He was sacrificed for what? What cause?
As for Saudi internal reaction — it is typically Saudi. The country is run by clans. Their biggest challenge is to keep unity at all costs. What would it mean to the Kingdom if a member of one clan commits offense against another? They internally decide how to handle this — appropriate compensations made, marriages arranged, somebody retired. But outwardly — all is well. It is not a secret that following a coup in. June 2017, many royals were detained in Ritz hotel, until appropriate loyalties were settled, i never believed that it was going to easy, as the man removed from power was in KSA known as auntie CIA best friend. Saudi intelligence was therefore questionable, Is it then a shocker that following their investigation — MBS received authority to reorganize intelligence. If anyone expects transparency in KSA — is deluded.
But one change is significant —Wahhabi money dried up for Islamic warriors, There are still PLENTY of terrorist/mercenaries in ME, but no more Saudi money. This upset the ME apple cart, as it is now hard to draw population into conflicts to fight for free.
I ought to know. I lived in Yemen for years working for UN. Spent most time in Sana’a, but travelled throughout the country. Visited Saudi Arabia several times. I do not need to imagine realities there.
Thank You again for gifting me and Antiwar.cm your vast knowledge of the situation in KSA and especially in this case of Yemen. I would never have guessed that your vast knowledge includes being stationed in that unfortunate place. Awful for me to see the U.S. role in the murderous rape & genocide being perpetrated on those brave people.
On another note, what do you think antiwar.cm can do or should do to replace the strong leader dearly deparated Justin. I have no idea what he would have thought or written on these latest outrages, but I do believe he would have had stated something.
Thanks again for your meticulous analysis…
Thank you Bianca for your insightful posts.