On Saturday night, drones attacked a Saudi oil infrastructure site,
causing fires and knocking out some oil supply. Though the US was
blaming Iran almost immediately, Yemen’s Shi’ite Houthi movement
insisted that they were behind the attack.
Saudi Arabia has been invading Yemen, and the Houthis in particular, for
several years, and the Houthis presented this as a retaliatory action
for the Saudis’ strikes. Iran, by contrast, has denied having anything
to do with it.
The Houthis my be worth paying attention to, however, even if the
preference is to blame Iran. This is both because the Saudis have proven
unable to prevent these strikes, and because the Houthis have promised to keep launching attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.
A Houthi statement urged foreigners to leave areas around Saudi Aramco facilities, saying more attacks could come “at any moment.” The Saudi air defenses could be facing more challenges.
And even though the Saudis have the third largest military spending in
the world, and access to myriad US-made air defense system, they don’t
seem to have an answer for drone attacks. They had been able to
intercept Houthi-fired missiles at least sometimes, but the drones are
almost certainly both lower cost, and so far very effective, which
points to them being used a lot more.
So the suggestion I just made in the other thread that the Houthis might want to dial it back so as not to start a war between the US and Iran over their strikes has been answered – they’re going to continue to do these sort of strikes.
Which means the US is going to have to respond militarily against Iran because it’s talked itself into a corner by blaming Iran for everything the Houthis do. If the US doesn’t respond, it looks like a paper tiger. The Saudis can’t afford to directly threaten Iran despite their claims of being able to defend themselves – because they can’t.
Saudi Arabia is in the exact position Israel is – they can’t afford to start an Iran war because they will bear the brunt of the Iranian response. In Israel’s case, that is Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Saudi Arabia’s case, it is because they are easily within range of Iran’s thousands of missiles.
Which means in both cases, only the US can prosecute a war with Iran on the behalf of either country.
So the US has forced itself to defend both countries. Even if Trump “doesn’t want a war”, he will have no choice but to attack Iran if Saudi Arabia continues to be attacked by the Houthis – as long as his administration continues to blame Iran for Houthi actions. If Israel foments a conflict with Hezbollah, he will be forced to join Israel in attacking Lebanon.
So whatever Trump says he wants is irrelevant. And he’s probably lying to boot. His administration – and every administration before him – has put the US into this position, so he bears the blame – whether he wants it or not.
When engaging in a street fight with a cold blooded psychopath, the only viable target is where he keeps his checkbook. Duck and weave, my Houthi brothers. Hit Michael Myers bin Salman where it hurts.
Houthis sure are tough sons of bitches. Gotta give them that much credit.
The Saudis have been murdering tens of thousands of children and causing disease and famine in Yemen for more than four years. They are using weapons from the USA and GB. There has been very little outcry regarding this, and it is not until the oil facilities in SA are damaged that there is outcry. Never mind the tortured and dead kids, but as soon as our fuel supplies are threatened,……………………..