Attempts by US negotiators to finalize a peace deal to get US troops out of Afghanistan continue to struggle in the face of President Trump’s comments, which continue to focus on all the troops he’s not going to get out of Afghanistan.
Trump said there would be “a determination” about Afghanistan at some point, but that the US will withdraw some troops, and leave 8,600 in Afghanistan, saying it would be “very well controlled.” This is less than half of the US presence.
Less than half falls dramatically short of the number of troops the Taliban wanted to leave Afghanistan, which is every single one. Trump only added to trouble in negotiating that by vowing that the US will always “keep a presence” in Afghanistan even if a deal is reached.
Trump does sometimes over-promise for the sake of audience he’s addressing, but months of fruitful negotiations on getting US troop levels to zero can’t coexist with a Trump promise to keep troops there no matter what, and that’s almost certain to be a problem the next time the US meets with the Taliban for talks.
So, he claims to withdraw the troops he ordered deployed in 2017, leaving levels where he came in. No mention of US mercenary levels. At least he can maintain he hates the war to one crowd, hates the “terrorists” to the other…eye deep in the swamp.
What he stated wasn’t actually inconsistent with the deal. It’s to be done in stages. A ceasefire goes into effect in each district the US pulls out of. The first stage is withdrawing troops down to the 8,000 level and then they see if the ceasefire holds in the area/districts they have left. Then they pull out more and so forth and so on. Within a year the US is supposed to have pulled them all out, IF the ceasefires hold. So it’s a conditioned based departure and that is essentially what Trump just said. We will see how it goes. If the Taliban starts slaughtering people the minute we leave a district you can bet they will not leave the next district on the list and instead we will end up bombing them in that district again.
As for keeping intel behind, are there any grown up’s anywhere in the world that doubt the US will do everything it can to keep spies and assets on the ground and in the air over Afghanistan? Is Trump supposed to say, “Hey we are leaving and you can just do as you please”? Would that be something that would help sell this withdrawal plan to the rest of NATO, who is also supposed to pull out?
And no I’m not saying we should be farting around, we should have been gone long ago. However, Trump’s comments are not actually contradictory to anything that is in the actual deal or at least what we know of what’s in the actual deal.
We pull back, a ceasefire takes place, if the ceasefire holds we pull out more troops and on and on until we are gone. That’s the deal and that is not inconsistent with Trump’s statements. And again, nobody in the entire world thinks we will not do our best to continue to spy on Afghanistan in every way possible. We don’t have to act like children and pretend that it’s ever going to be any different when it comes to spying and intelligence gathering do we?
Trump is trying to reassure the hawks and the people who are legitimately worried about terrorism or horrible human rights violations that could happen after our pull out. He’s not very good at reassuring them, but it’s what he is obviously doing, so it shouldn’t be assumed that his statements mean more than they actually do.
I have serious doubts that this plan will work, but I have little doubt that Trump hopes to get our troops out before the next election.
Fair assessment. Some points, since the Afghan war is a civil war, the likelihood of ceasefire seems remote. Those areas under Taliban control, would likely fulfill ceasefire goals, others not so much. A conservative estimate says the US exacts 10 air strikes a day supporting the occupation government forces, in an area the size of Texas in 2019. Obviously, some areas are pounded heavier than others. I have found no records for US artillery strikes, ground attacks, or mercenary missions or numbers. The Intercept has a brief article on US paid militias in Afghanistan this month. It seems without US support, the occupation government forces collapse in weeks. The US does not have a good record for supporting its proxies once they determine to go.
I am very sure that in the ranks of decision makers there is not one of them that is concerned about terrorism in Afghanistan. All of them are in the process of assessing how to.address the clear message coming from voters, and that is the unhappiness with never ending Afghanistan war. Especially, as nobody can define the purpose of American forces staying there. The idea that we can manage to have a compliant government in Kabul and all the tribes accept our rule was idiotic from the start. It may work in societies with traditions of very centralized governance, but not in such highly decentralized feudal style power sharing. This was the reason Soviet rule failed — no matter how well received it was in Kabul, there never was adequate level of feudal rulers’ participation.
The idea that we can forever stay there and be the arbiters of various interests. — may have looked challenging and fun at first. How hard could it be? And over time, stay in the country controlling its foreign policy, military and economy. And given location — good perch to monitor Russia and China, infiltrate Central Asian countries — Brzezinski “arch of instability”.
But the reality is always against such ideologies of occupation. The real rulers of the country decided to fight occupation, and bypass Kabul to negotiate with US.
Here is my take on the idiotic holes some hang on to, that Taliban will just continue killing “their people”, and we will have to stay! Word to the fools — move out faster and stay out no matter the niceties of who said what. Because we are making our position worse, have no leverage over anything or anyone.
Whether someone starts a problem with the desperate hope to keep us in, or the settlement of some scores — we are in no position to change anything. Unless we think another round of 300,000 soldiers is the solution. For what gain?
As for spying, this is today’s norm. Afghanistan will get integrated with the region economically — that is already understood. It will not become anyone’s military base, to be used as a lever against Russia and China. The competition will remain in economy and hopefully will not be as shortsighted as it was in August 2011 when Bush hosted Taliban and gave a lousy deal on pipeline. Prompting Taliban to sign with Argentina .
All was academic after 9/11 when we decided that a caveman Bin Laden did it out of his one dusty camp where the leftovers of his followers practiced obstacle course and rolling in the dirt. The whole operation was a hastily hatched “do not let crisis go to waste” operation, with an eye to spreading into Central Asia, Russia’s and China’s back yard. After all the money spent, Russia and China have a tight lock on Central Asia, have strong relations with Iran, solid relations with very much reformed Pakistan, solid relations with India. Kashmir issue is coming up not as a result of weakness but strength. Both countries have leadership that can sustain tackling on the colonial relic. To that end — noticeable is the mutual desire by India and Pakistan to prevent any attempts by third party to mediate.
But consultation is occurring outside of the range of prying ears and eyes. As permanent members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, both India and Pakistan are in continuous communication with Russia and China.
This is just a short balance of our Afghanistan Excellent Adventure.
That seems to make sense.
Deep State wins again. We not leaving Iraq, Syria, or Yemen either.
Jury is still out on this one.
Jury is out, troops remain.
It’s more a wild card.
Some fucking withdrawal.
I’m not surprised.
And how many paid mercenaries, folks to guard the CIA’s poppy fields, process the CIA’s heroin, etc.? Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Honestly I think the jury is still out on this.
Why? Afghanistan is next to Iran.
Friggin’ arrogant usa again rules by might and might alone…
Can’t pull them all out and still ship the opium out – unless the CIA cuts a deal with the locals to do it…with the help of the contractors.
Also, the US needs air bases there in order to help with the upcoming war with Iran.
People are morons. Why would he pull the troops out? So he can move them to Iran, of course. First, he wins the election by claiming he ended the Afghan war – then he starts the war with Iran – and every one of his idiot supporters will support him in this.
It does not follow from “the Taliban cracked down on opium production before the US invasion” that “the Taliban will crack down on opium production after the US withdrawal.”
Let’s take the most undiluted version of the opium hypothesis: The US invaded Afghanistan to get the opium flowing after the Taliban suppressed it, full stop.
So, the Taliban got their asses kicked out of power for nearly 20 years because they suppressed opium production.
If you get your ass kicked over X and then manage to claw your way back to your previous position, how inclined are you going to be to do X again?
Indeed.
Also consider that some people allege that the only reason the Taliban clamped down production the first time was to warehouse it to drive the price up and then sell it. Given their religious nature, this may not be true, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
But in that case, the question would be, why drive out the Taliban for that reason, since presumably they would have been amenable to selling it to the CIA. OTOH, perhaps they disliked the US so much they wouldn’t sell it, so then we’re back to the they had to go because they had it or they destroyed it and the CIA didn’t have it.
Then of course there’s also the oil pipeline angle.
Most wars are started for more than one reason. I’m sure the Afghan war was, just like Iraq was likely started for reasons beyond the fact that, as Greg Palast proved, Saddam was messing with the price at which he sold his oil, undercutting the OPEC price. I’m sure another factor was that the neocons wanted him gone because their real target was Iran – as the Israelis wanted, which the Leveretts said was the case.
And then of course in all these wars there’s the profit to be made by the military-industrial complex and the oil companies since the war hikes the oil price – and then of course the banks benefit.
So I’d doubt the Taliban got kicked out solely for the heroin. But it’s a decent reason to keep the war going now. But the US also needs to keep the troops in to support the new war in Iran – at least the air bases, if not a lot of ground troops. That’s probably the real deal the US is offering the Taliban – let us keep out air bases, you can do what you want with the rest of the country. Oh, and we’ll take the opium off your hands at a reasonable price.
Everyone wins – except the rest of us.
With huge amounts wrongly or wastefully spent in Afghan War, U.S.A., must reimburse the war expenditure of over $100 Billion still owing to Pakistan; the country which is saving American & Coalition’s Asses by getting an agreement between Americans and Taliban.