A planned summit intended to form a new Yemeni government was to be held
in Saudi Arabia, and was meant to shuffle around a few of the top
factions around President Hadi’s would-be government. The summit,
however, did not start.
Officials say that the summit is indefinitely on hold because the capital city of the Yemeni government, Aden, has fallen to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement for South Yemen.
The STC are aligned with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and a number of
Yemen factions who have argued the government needs reshuffling, and
indeed Saudi officials indicated that the plan was to give them some
representation in the Saudi-dominated government as a sort of reform.
The STC has rejected the idea of returning Aden to government control,
on the grounds that Aden is the capital of South Yemen, and they say
they intend to take the rest of South Yemen’s territory. They did give
the government back a handful of important buildings in the city,
however, apparently hoping that would be a compromise, though it’s not
one the Saudis seem okay living with.
This is a political dance before settlement. The loser here is US, as it no longer has a say in the developments nor influence over key actors.
Up until 2014, US controlled the entire scenario revolving around Southwestern tip of Arabian Peninsula. Between Oman and Saudi Arabia was Yemen, perennially unstable ever since Clinton forced South under the rule of North, with an unreliable but pliable ruler, Saleh, in charge. Tge objective was to consolidate that stretch of coast into American controlled Arabian side of Bab Al-Mandeb. With US present in Somalia and Djibuti, it looked like it was just a matter of time to have full control over straights that can block Saudi, Egyptian and Sudan’s exports to Asia, and make Asian access to Middle East and Europe a difficult one. So when Arab spring brought protests to the streets of Sana’a it was viewed as an opportunity,
No better example of Robert Burns “the best laid plans of mice and men go oft awry.”
Fast forward, our hand picked Crown Prince Al-Nayaf was pushed on the newly installed unwilling King Salman. Muhammed Bin Nayaf was a product of FBI schooling, his shortened college career in US never explained. Saudi foreign policy was never before so fully under US control. But bith North and South saw this as a golden opportunity to separate back into two states. The helpless Hadi, a southerner, never had a chance in the North, and US just ignored the situation, declaring Hadi ti be internationally recognized president if the whole country. In turmoil that followed, Saleh was wounded, Hadi ran to Aden jn the South. Zaidi North wanted independence, but to throw everyone of the scent, the rebellion was called Houthis, as if the whole thing was just a matter of some tribal difference, not the attempt by Zaidi Yemen to get back their country they rulled continuously for over 1,000 years, and most of it under one dynasty. South likewise wanted their Sultanates back.
As it did not work according to plan, Saudis with US help sponsored a bunch of Al-Qaeda lookalikes to stir thing up in the Sunni South. Shia North was homogenous and united, so Saudis started bombing campaign and US imposed naval blockade to starve them. Obama, being sure if Saudi complicity had the luxury of ignoring both Saudis and Israel to sign Iran deal. This was the situation as Trump took over in 2017. Under his pressure, Saudis were to isolate Qatar as THE sponsor of terrorism, and eliminate Turkish and Iranian links to Qatar. But Trump was the last straw. After all Kingdom has done for US, now the demands increased to include threatening a fellow Gulf nation, increased involvement in Syria, increasingly murky situation in Yemen, Wahhabi support of ISIS and budgetary crisis to boot. Saudi Kingdom, looking at the changing landscape in Iraq and Syria, Russian influence, Chinese market growth and US market decline — made a strategic decision to revert to independent policy. To that end, Allegiance Council dismissed MBN, and elevated MBS to Crown Prince in June 2017. That date changed everything. Wahhabi cutback to ISIS and other Salafi Islamic cults. Qatar fiasco was remedied by Cairo conference in which all conditions laud out for Qatar to meet, were changed to PRINCIPLES. MBS became enemy from day one. His father, the King, formerly described as senile or worse, suddenly made remarkable recovery and took 2,000 strong delegation to Moscow for a week long business trip where over 40 deals are signed. Since, two major changes to US policy. One, MBS was blamed for everything including decisions by his predecessor on Yemen, terrorists, Qatar. MBS being Defense Minister meant nothing, as MBN kept King in the dark as presumably too senile to be kept informed. Thus MBS was in dark as well. Tried to make an independent decision while MBN way out of the country and was roundly criticized in US press. He was the enemy before taking over. Second, US propped up UAE, gave them American mercenaries to eliminate Saudi sponsored Hadi supporters in South Yemen. UAE was in fact pushing Hadi out of South Yemen. So, if MBS wants to fight Sana’a for the last port left, Hodeidah, it was OK by Us, for as ling as US puppet, UAE controls the South. With Kashoggi murder everything changed in Saudi favor. Ine, Allegiance Council supported MBS and fave him powers to clean up intelligence where the assassination plot came from. With no chance that Saudis were going to comply and sack both King and MBS —UAE got Saudi ultimatum, and in due course, UAE announced pull out, US showed all classical signs of anger, blaming UAE for any number of sins.
At present, this may be coordinated. Southern Separatists are taking over Aden and the South — provided they are not stabbed in the back by one or two sultanates. By giving Saudi sponsored Hadi access to the vestiges of power — the buildings that signify rule — it looks like a typical face saving device. I am still waiting to see US move or demand. Both North and South will be happy to sllit. Saudis will be happy to have good relations and influence over whoever rules along the Straights. Nirthbwill revert to its old status and can rule itself, but South will need a supervisor. Saudis and UAE need to work it out. US may still keep on blocking Hodeidah in the name of invented Iranian threat. This is end game, and let us see how can US get a foothold on this dide of Straights. What looked simple and easy, now is anything but.
There are plenty of other options, so no big loss. In fact I’ve declared myself president of Earth, and will be holding a summit where the various factions of the world can send delegates for representation within my government. How generous of me to let them speak, not to say just anything of course but as long as they follow the ground rules they can be part of the process.