A deal negotiated last week and put into effect on Sunday, Russia and Ukraine have negotiated, along with Europe’s OSCE, a comprehensive ceasefire in Donbass (Eastern Ukraine). The deal intends to extend the ceasefire indefinitely.
The deal is being negotiated by Russia on behalf of Ukraine’s eastern
separatist movement, and obliges both sides to move heavy weaponry away
from the front line, as well as banning attacks and attempts at forward
movement by either side.
OSCE officials say this deal, with its open-ended term, is going much
further than previous ones, and followed with a joint statement from
Russia and Ukraine. This commits both sides more fully to abiding by the
deal.
This is particularly important because in the past, smaller factions on
both sides have felt entitled to simply ignore the deals, arguing they
weren’t personally party to the pact. With both governments committed,
dishonoring the pact comes at a much bigger price.
The civil war in East Ukraine has been ongoing for five years, though in
state of ceasefires for most of it. The rebellion in Western Ukraine,
which ousted a pro-Russia government, led to harsh measures against
ethnic Russians who living in the east, and fueled calls for them to
separate into an autonomous region or outright independent nation.
Russia constantly betrays the Donbas people.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense. The problem has started when the West in its wisdom allowed the extremists from Galicia region take over the government in a coup, and were allowed without punishment to threaten Russian ethnic population, and all Ukrainian Russian speakers with depravation of all rights, and with death of all their leaders, including prominent members of community, from teachers to physicians. That was the time when people were frightened by violent minority, while everyone was forced to stay silent. This is changing. Hopefully, unless West in its wisdom interferes again, and tries to come up with an incident to get nationalism stirred up against Russia.
But there is no reason for the regions to secede unless in dire danger. If their rights are guaranteed, what may require constitutional change to give equal rights to other regions — Ukraine can remain a viable country. If not, it will fall apart, without Russia moving a finger. This is why both Minsk agreement stipulated territorial integrity. Because it will be a viable country if all regions are given autonomy— or it will find a way to guarantee Russian ethnic and linguistic rights without full regionalization. Or if unable to do either, it will fall apart. And not only Russia , but Belarus and Hungary have their minorities to protect. All Russia needs to do us be supportive of the process, and guarantee regional security if things turn really ugly. So far, as bad as any war is — did not require interference.
On that I concur. There independence was at least as valid as Crimea’s. It should have been given the same degree of respect and recognition. Putin chose strategic convenience over principal. There is little excuse for that kind of cowardice.
Russia has no allegiance to anyone but Russia, never the less the people of Dondas would have been exterminated were it not been for Russian intervention.
To blame Russia for the atrocities in Ukraine is ludicrous.
Russia shares a border with Ukraine just like it does Georgia. Before the latest flashup in Georgia ties were mending and trade was returning. The people of Georgia were benefiting from it. Things might take a set back but Putin refused to put sanctions on even though tempers were flaring in Russia. You can look at the same thing with Ukraine. Do you really think the EU and NATO are going to make life better for the Ukrainian people? That is a pipe dream. Putin is smart. He is playing the long game. He’ll let things settle down. They share a border and a large part of the country speaks Russian as their primary language. Russia isn’t laying over. When the promises of the EU are proven false where else does Ukraine have to turn? You could see this working in Georgia.
The biggest challenge to peace between Ukraine and Russia are the Soros, CIA and NATO funded NGOs that instigated the “color revolution” in 2014. These dark shadowy entities will now support the neo-Nazis in the former Galicia region of western Ukraine that opposed the election of Zelensky, who was elected by fully 75% of Ukrainians.
Zelensky had better be looking over his shoulder for a another Maidan-style putsch happening on his watch and throw the fascists out of the military and police forces. Although they are a small minority of Ukrainians, they have massive support in the West and could easily pull off another coup. There won’t be any cookies from Victoria Nuland this time, just bullets to the head of Zelensky and other elected officials.
Yeah, yeah. They did this before – and Ukraine still kept shelling the Donbass towns. With the comedian as President, nothing will change. The Ukraine government isn’t in charge, the neo-Nazis and the CIA are in charge.
I’ve said before that Putin should just invade Ukraine, wipe out the neo-Nazi battalions, execute the oligarchs, install a puppet regime, disarm the Ukraine military and send all their weapons back to Russia – then go home without actually occupying Ukraine. It would be another decade or more before Ukraine could cause any more trouble, regardless of what happens internally. Sure, this plan would be a PR problem for Russia and the US and NATO would bitch and moan, but there would be nothing either of them could do about it.
But Putin’s not going to do that. Putin just said in an interview with Oliver Stone that he believes Ukraine will eventually rejoin Russia, at least economically, but he put no time frame on that. But unless the nationalist parties in western Ukraine can be somehow put down, that’s not going to happen. They’ve been against Russia since before WWII.
Ukraine is essentially two countries – the nationalists in the West and the Russians in the East. Eventually I suspect the country will break in two permanently, with Donbass being absorbed into Russia. But it might take a few decades for that to actually happen. In the meantime, it will remain a festering sore for Russia.