After months of talk of the US attacking Iran, President Trump has
finally spoken directly on the matter. Unfortunately, he largely left
the question unanswered, saying he prefers to keep the matter a “question mark.“
Trump told an interviewer with Time Magazine that he would ‘certainly go over nuclear weapons,”
but didn’t want to commit one way or the other on a war against Iran
for other reasons, including free flow of oil through the Persian Gulf.
Trump has long favored having an unclear foreign policy on specifics,
leaving open the possibility of a surprise war that no one sees coming,
and also hoping to make people nervous about where the line is as a way
to try to use the perceived threat as a bargaining chip.
But leaving the flow of oil a “question mark” seems to be a change in US
military policy, as officials have long presented keeping oil flowing
across the Middle East as a prime goal of the huge US military presence
in the region.
Which isn’t to say Trump doesn’t intend to go to war if that becomes an
issue. Rather, it may be about convincing other countries in the region
to commit themselves to participating in such efforts.
Not that it is expected to come to that. Indeed, saying he’d only go to
war over Iran getting nuclear weapons is as good as saying he’s not
going to war, as Iran is not enriching uranium to anywhere near
weapons-grade levels, nor intending to attempt to do so. As ever, Iran’s
program is purely civilian, and even if the US doesn’t always approve
of it, the lack of a weapons-dimension should keep that from being a
pretext for war.
The crazy Neocon, J.Bolton is more clear.
“America’s declared policy should be ending Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution before its 40th anniversary…Recognizing a new Iranian regime in 2019 would reverse the shame of once seeing our diplomats held hostage for 444 days.” – John Bolton (January 15, 2018) [1]
https://southfront.org/provocations-in-the-gulf-of-oman-will-john-bolton-get-his-war-on-iran/
“Trump has long favored having an unclear foreign policy on specifics, leaving open the possibility of a surprise war that no one sees coming, and also hoping to make people nervous about where the line is as a way to try to use the perceived threat as a bargaining chip.”
In other words, he doesn’t have a f**king clue.
Iran has every right in the world to develop nuclear weapons just as we and other nations have. What gives Uncle Sam the right to declare who may or may not defend themselves with nuclear weapons?
Trump’s opinions are irrelevant. What he left out is that he would go to war over Israel. Does anyone really doubt that? Trump will go to war against Hezbollah if Israel foments an incident. Trump will also go to war against Iran if Israel starts such a war. He can’t do anything else given his antipathy to Iran and his unwavering support for Israel.
So Trump will go to war in the near future against Hezbollah in Lebanon. And after the 2020 election, he will go to war with Iran – if he wins. If he doesn’t win, the next US President will – unless it’s Tulsi Gabbard, which I view as extremely unlikely (but then I was wrong about Trump’s chances in 2016.)
Trump’s non-existent policies don’t need this level of analysis. If he actually committed to anything, he might have to follow up on it. The fact that he hired Bolton and Pompeo and is happy to let them run amok tells you all you need to know.