While the trade war between the US and China has done considerable harm
to both economies, the worst could easily be yet to come, as China considers restricting the export of rare earth elements (REEs) to the US as a major curb for which the US would have no easy response.
There are 17 REEs,
elements which are comparatively difficult to come by. These include
all 15 lanthanides as well as scandium and yttrium. These elements are
necessary for certain industrial processes, and are virtually essential
for making certain aerospace components, electric motors, and high
capacity batteries.
The crux of the matter is, REEs are everywhere in products, from
commercial to industrial to military, but the United States produces
very few, having only a single mine in the entire country. China, by
contrast, is the world’s largest such producer, and has over a third of
the world’s known REE reserves. China is such a market leader that even
the lone US mine, in California, sends the extract to China to be
processed efficiently.
So if China starts limiting exports to the US, as threatened in recent
Chinese state media reports, it would hurt the US, badly, and China is
such a market leader that the US would struggle to replace any more than
a tiny fraction of them elsewhere.
The Pentagon is taking this very seriously,
with a new request for the federal government to boost domestic
production of REEs to reduce dependence on China. Their argument is that
this is primarily for national security reasons, though the same case
could be made for economic reasons.
Either way though, the ability to start massive REE production within
the US is not something that happens overnight with a few federal
grants. The prices of REEs were already on the rise, and companies were
already looking to expand to the extent they could, and even then
nothing is expected online until 2022 at the earliest. The rarity of the
elements means it isn’t readily apparently how many the US can produce
at all, and even then, doing so is many years down the road, while the
trade war is a right-now sort of problem.
Perhaps California should stop its export to the US as well….
“the lone US mine, in California.”
Bad, bad news because now you must be friendly to California.
China would only be shooting themselves in the foot, long term, if they do this. This would show everyone that China is not a reliable supplier, and any country that has those resources will start to develop them.
Interesting note — put a different way, China would be doing exactly what the US just did by cutting Huawei off from Google/Android software and Intel/Qualcomm chips.
And? That could very easily help Huawei long term.
Yes, the US is helping Huawei long term, at the expense of American tech companies. Just like cutting off rare earth metals would help China’s competitors in that market long term at Chinese operations’ expense.
Unreliable companies get hurt, even if the reason for their unreliability is the actions of the governments they have to answer to.
One massive dot that merits connection to this story is about the $6 trillion RE deposit sitting near the west coast of North Korea. Whose mining companies get the extraction concessions that are currently blocked by sanctions? Google “north korea rare earths” and some things become a little bit clearer, such as the frantic diplomacy blunders of “swaggering” Mike Pompeo. Given the obvious, why wouldn’t NK grant those concessions to China and Russia?