According to Saudi officials familiar with the situation, President
Trump’s dramatic reverse on the fighting in Libya in early April came as a direct result of lobbying by Egypt’s junta leader and the Saudi Crown Prince.
The US had long publicly backed the unity government in Libya, and when
the Egyptian-backed Khalifa Hafter attacked the capital, the US was
quick to call for an end to all hostilities. Then Trump got calls from
Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Trump followed this up by declaring himself to have a “shared vision”
with Hafter, and presented his self-proclaimed army as key to a
“democratic political system.” Since then, the US has stopped all calls
to end fighting in the area.
Hafter has a long history in Libya, and some of that history involved
being a CIA-backed rebel leader. At this point, however, he seems to
just be a convenient leader of a move against the Muslim
Brotherhood-aligned political factions which have been successful in
Libya’s elections. If this means installing another military strongman,
Saudi Arabia and Egypt are comfortable with that, and President Trump
can clearly be persuaded.
This can’t be accurate. Trump is a non-interventionist.
I suppose either supporting the democratic will of the people or just minding our own business is out of the question. Such constructive behavior would probably shock the world so much as to be destabilizing.
This is another example of US losing, and making most of it — and the very countries that conspired to support Hafter, and make mockery of US manufactured UN government that was brought in by ship to Tripoli. Now, everybody has become wise to Hafter’s background, and his link to CIA while being exiled by Ghadafi. That was then. When US removed Ghadafi, Hafter was usefull figure to get various warring groups together accepting US rule. But — that was it. He was not destined to have any political role in post-Ghadafi era, while usefull — he was a general and not likely to be pliant politician. He was marginalized. To make sure we do not fall for simplistic explanations — Tripoli insurgents, not Benghazi Islamists had support of Turkey and Qatar. Without them — Islamists would have overrun the capital. and those Islamists were OK with US, as they worked TOGETHER to remove Ghadafi. No Muslim Brotherhood there. Egypt was still in internal crisis, and the former ruler of Kingdom, US darling M B Nayaf — so the two countries were at loggerheads. Egypt military took over, and Muslim Brotherhood decimated — the condition for Saudi loans. All the way up until June 2017 when Saudi royal coup brought to power MBS — when Egypt was no longer subject to Saudi trashing. During that period — US did everything to get rid of Hefter, who, along with the Parliament, moved to Tobruk on Egyptian border. Both Turkey and Qatar were assured by US that Islamists were not going to rule from Tripoli, and this is why Turkey supported US efforts to bring in UN sponsored government. Good old M B Nayaf — to ease Trump declared Qatar sponsor of terrorism — as the small rich country dared to intervene in Libyan conflict. Turkey, on the other hand, as a NATO member was accommodated. One month after announcing conflict with Qatar — MBNAyaf was gone. New ruler, MBS changed few things immediately. Cut a deal with Egypt — for a few Red Sea Islands, loans were wiped off. Then Egypt and Sudan became Red Sea alliance essentially undermining US end game in Yemen. And then support for Hafter started in a well planned, financed and systemic manner. Heftar combined his knowledge of tribes, and their fear of Islamists US and UK and then Crown Prince MB Nayaf unleashed in Benghazi — to finally defeat them and take iver Benghazi. From there, he took a southern route to get Fez provinces on his side. Keep in mind that both Al-Sisi and MBS are close to Moscow, Egyptian military in particular. I have no idea why is Egypt being referred to as US ally? Egypt is IMPORTANT country linking Middle East, North Africa and Africa. US would do nothing to publicly offend it — knowing full well its ties to Russia and China — and its refusal to get into anti-Iranian camp. Egypt is very careful not to publicly offend US, and is always giving away pleasing noises -/ when it means nothing. As for MBS — does anyone think for a moment that after US tried and failed to topple him using Kashoggi murder as a pretext — that he is US ally? Sure, lime Egypt — all necessary noises will be emitted. But there is no more unquestioning execution of US wishes.
Dies anyone know how did MBS resolve Qatar crisis? In Cairo, meeting was held that converted ALL CONDITIONS into PRINCIPLES. Done. However, the state of estrangement is very usefull device, and will continue. Fhis allows Qatar and Turkey to continue relationship with Iran. US cannot lean on Saudis to “do something about it”. Support for Heftar continued. US could do nothing about it — as it lacked any leverage in the country, and was expecting Heftar to eventually negotiate the best deal for himself under UN sponsored “unity” government. France, that played the spy for US was actually led to believe that Heftar was going to deal — to get a nice admiral title, and get out if politics. This is why nothing was done as he went around cutting deals, and fighting free lance Islamists — incudentally once they lost sugar daddy in Riyadh were powerless. Much too late did US and France realize that Heftar is ANTE PORTAS, as they say. He came to Tripoli to fight for power, not being given retirement, and some medals.
Trump gets it — ditch UN government and try to appease Heftar. Better to say, meet objectives of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Russia in the shadow. Trump will deal, but only when he has to. For now, it is too early to deal.
On the other hand — it may be already too late, so what is the hurry?
Also, anyone actually believes that MBS would reward those in US who tried to depose him by signaling to Allegiance Council that he is not acceptable? That US want him gone? What manes anyone think that Saudi King — whom the same Washkngton crowd declared demented and unfit to rule — would go along with those who tried to have him deposed on the grounds of being incapacitated? US darling — MB Nayef was to become the King!
This mess was a classic neocon overreach — that permanently caused a shift in Saudi geopolitics. Some things are as simple. They tried to destroy his father, then him. MBS is no longer US ally against Iran.
As is the case of Qatar — conflict with Iran will remain Saudi useful device, but that is it. Relations with Moscow are by far more important to Riyadh then US alpreciates.
The pleasant noises coming out of Trump — telling Iran to call so US can fix its economy — are signs of confusion.
In the last ditch effort Pompeo is getting Europe to cave in and cancel the deal. What goodies does he have in store for them? What threats?
I do not think Iran, or anybody else can take EU seriously at this point. EU cannot manage its own disfunctional relationship — and is too often just an extension of US policy. In Iranian affair — EU did not cancel the deal, but it de facto honored all US sanctions? Cannot have it both ways.
EU will forever play the role of court idiot. Gets into supporting US efforts, US changes the tune or just fails to deliver — making them look stupjder by the day.
Libya being sterling example. To be discussed in EU meeting just as Pompeo is crashing the meeting to talk Iran. Brilliant.