The Trump Administration has been talking about its long-term goal being
to force Iran oil exports to zero for months, and has faced resistance
because of the impact it would have on the oil market, and by extension
the global economy.
Reports indicate, however, that despite the panic and surge in oil prices it is certain to cause, the Trump Administration intends to announce on Monday
that they will refuse all waiver renewals of Iran oil, meaning that as
of May 2, all Iran oil exports will be sanctionable under US law.
The administration believes this will cripple Iran’s economy, and while
it might, there are broader implications as well. Iran exports about a
million barrels of oil a day, and there simply aren’t a million extra
barrels of oil on the market to make up for that.
This means from the announcement through May 2, all those nations
suddenly without waivers are going to be scrambling to scrape up the
last little bit of supply they can get, at rising prices, while the
Trump Administration tries to ignore the consequences.
How far this digs into exports of course remains to be seen. China has
openly said before that they don’t intend to comply with US sanctions,
and nations like India may decide they simply can’t afford to go along
with US demands.
US To End Sanctions Waivers for Iran Oil
Officials intend to announce end of waivers on Monday
Jason Ditz is Senior Editor for Antiwar.com. He has 20 years of experience in foreign policy research and his work has appeared in The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times, and the Detroit Free Press.
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