As US officials have made clear in recent statements, oil prices and global market supply are informing administration policy on Iran’s oil sanctions, and how rapidly they can advance a scheme to get Iran’s exports down to zero.
In recent months, that’s meant officials arguing that the market could
sustain further cuts in Iranian oil , which would mean fewer US waivers
when the decision comes up for approval in May. The market, however, no
longer seems to be supporting that.
Oil prices have been steadily increasing, and extraneous supply
on the market is declining, two things which very much do not fit with
the idea of the US taking more of Iran’s 1 million-plus barrels of daily
supply off the market.
The admission seems to have already been made, with President Trump
pushing for more OPEC supply because “price of oil getting too high.”
OPEC, however, may not be so willing to replace supply from Iran and
Venezuela which the US are keeping off the market.
Even if slight production increases are possible, analysts are
predicting further price increases, with general market tightening and
instability in places like Libya knocking even more supply out of the
market.
Every country’s oil exports must be brought to zero soon if humanity’s future will be survivable… but the country most deserving of blockade / embargo / boycott is Saudi Arabia, not Iran. We must use what little fossil fuels we can afford to building infrastructure that is sustainable.
“Oil Prices Likely Derail Trumps Plan to Destroy Iran on Israel’s Behalf”
FTFY. Stop being so diplomatic.