A week of heavy fighting in the Libyan capital of Tripoli grew substantially Wednesday and into Thursday, with both sides bringing tanks in, and locals reporting heavy tank-fire heard across the city.
Reports are that the invading Libyan National Army (LNA) of Khalifa
Hafter is no more than seven miles from the city’s center at this point,
while unity government PM Fayez Sarraj has issued a call for all Libyan
armed forces to mobilize. He also urged locals to fight to defend
Tripoli from the Hafter coup.
Indications are that this call to arms was answered chiefly by the
Misrata militias, who arrived in force in Tripoli and were firing Grad
rockets at the LNA forces to keep them from advancing any further.
It’s not clear how this fighting is all going to end, as the LNA does
not appear to have the force to take the city outright, but Hafter is
unlikely to quit the offensive without some new concessions to
strengthen his position.
Hafter doesn’t even necessarily have to “win” the fight militarily, as
even being present around Tripoli and causing trouble has put UN efforts
to hold new reconciliation conferences on hold, and similarly forced
Sarraj to scale back diplomatic efforts and focus on just keeping
control of as much of the city as he can.
I agree with the analysis of Hafter’s position. He was not about to cut the deal with the artificial UN entity, as he has majority of the country, its clans and militias lined up with him. The unspoken consensus is — they prefer Egypt’s support to having to deal with US and France alone. That has been tried for years, snd chaos remsined. Hafter did not do this heavy lifting, and Egypt did not give all this support to its neighbor — just toose a the control to outsiders. Egypt’s Al-Sisi apparently was not convinced by Trump to bargain on Libya, or to give up buying 30 Russian planes, or to accept staying in so called Arab NATO. At this point, it is not sure that the country that initiated it early in 2017 is still in. Saudi Arabia is not the same country since June 2017.
Oh well. Let them fight it out.