Libyan National Army (LNA) head Khalifa Hafter, who is in the process of
attacking the capital city of Tripoli for at least the third time since
2014, is reportedly being pushed by the US government for a bigger role in official Libyan affairs. This could include making him the head of the actual Libyan military, instead of just the one he pieced together himself.
Hafter has a long history in Libya, participating in the 1969 Gadhafi
coup, finding himself part of a CIA-funded rebel force in the 1980s, and
has been positioning himself as a military strongman since Gadhafi’s 2011 ouster.
In 2014, Hafter ousted a parliament, and by year’s end was in the
process of launching a coup of his own. In 2015 he became head of the
LNA, the force loyal to the Tobruk parliament, and stopped referring to
his old title of general, instead styling himself a “field marshal.” His
forces have been trying to seize territory and consolidate power since,
finding themselves once again moving against Tripoli, this time to
remove the US and UN-backed unity government.
This latest action is ruining UN-planned conciliation talks, with
officials saying no one wants to talk while Tripoli is under attack. The
US sees the solution as just promoting Hafter, figuring he’ll stop
attacking Tripoli if he’s part of the government that already controls
it.
To be fair, Hafter’s promotion to the Tobruk parliament’s official
military chief was also done at least in part to keep him from attacking
their territory. That worked, as far as it goes, though Hafter has
subsequently acquired substantial territory of his own, and still seems
to have designs on ultimately being the military ruler of Libya, or at
least as much of it as he can muster.
This is likely why the US has recently avoided being too publicly
aligned with Hafter, though top US regional allies like Egypt’s junta
leader Abdel-Fattah ElSisi and the United Arab Emirates have both been
very openly supporting him.
Because of historical reasons there are only two “stable” outcomes for Libya. The country is either partitioned into two or three mini-states or else autonomous regions within one state along the lines of the provinces when Libya was an Italian colony or unification under a dictatorial regime as it was under Qaddafi.
It is astonishing to notice how long major historical events can last. The Western portion of Libya, a.k.a. Tripolitania (“Three cities”) was once occupied by Carthage, then by the Roman Empire. The Eastern part or Cyrenaica was once ruled by Greeks.
The Southern province was never significant until oil was discovered.
Completely wrong. General Hefter came from US to be part of post-Gadhafi settlement. But he was soon shoved aside, in favor of getting a coalition of other strongmen, and to appease Benghazi militias without whom Gadhafi would still be in power. Hefter was trested as “has been”, without support in the country and various tribes/militias. Our State Department/Pentagon/CIA/whoever else, always lean towards the ambiguity, giving various groups hope of US support, in order to in the end, come up with a bland coalition of “National Accord”, UN blessed, with various bureaucrats in charge. And after some Tripoli based militants were convinced to join — new UN government was promoted as legitimate. Not all were convinced, and the Parliament moved to Tobruk on Egyptian border. Keep in mind, many of these pre-UN government forces were supported by Turkey and Qatar. US thought Hefter was done, and could only come to terms with US supported Tripoli. US also saw to that that France was sidelined as decision maker (oil of course).
Can we finally understand that Egypt is NOT US ally. It was not ever since Al -Sisi went to Beijing to attend the military parade commemorating end of WWII. As Egyptian soldiers marched in parade, with Al-Sisi, Xi and Putin in the stands. Egypt has made strides to rid itself of food dependency on West, procuring grain from Russia to have strategic reserves. It has Russia building nuclear power plant, And contract for 30 Russian Sukhoi planes signed last year. Of course, Al -Sisi’s visit to Washington was all in sign of pressuring Egypt to cancel the agreement and buy from the”West”. Whoever is in the “West” coming up with the narrative for our times — is making huge mistake. “West” does not have the kind of appeal it had in the East Block diring cold war. Today, it is more associated with aggressive behaviour, cliquishness, arrogance, and economic and moral bankruptcy. Most countries in the world like to deal with individual European countries, not EU or “Western democracies”. With US, most countries in the world are primarily concerned with not getting in harm’s way from unlredictable behaviour, and have less and less incentives to trade or invest. Unless, it is China.
Back on Egyptian border, General got help from Egypt (which means Russia and China), and the pissed off France was simpathetjc as well, but careful not to get bloody nose from US. As Hefter took Benghazi and oil fields, moved to cut deal with Fezzan, and reduced territory of the US supported UN government to very little — US naturally assumed he would now do US bidding, and deliver the Lybia to UN — that is US — recognized government in exchange for some high sounding position without power.
It was a shock to the blind US establishment that he actually has plans and sponsors kf his own. By attacking Tripoli — symbolism cannot be clearer. Whether Hefter takes it militarily or not — is of less importance. Important thing is — he will decide on the digree of dealing with US propped government.
Proof? Shocked and confused West tryied to UN SC resolution condemning Hefter, and ordering him to cease attack on Tripoli. Russia blocked the resolution as Hefter was “singled out”. Russia would have preffered “both” parties to cease military operations. In other words — treat Hefter and US created UN government in Tripoli as equals.
Now, that resolution shoukd have never been penned, as it exposed not just US but France as well, being phoney Hefter supporter. However, US is in a dillema — support Hefter, and he can name his price. Support UN givernment — means trying to beat Hefter back using mostly Islamic forces out of Misrata and some US supplied weapons in Tripoli. But then — HS can kiss good buy any amicable deal with Hefter.
I do not need a crystal ball to predict US rage being taken out on Egypt. So, how come you are buying Russian planes? Translate, deliver Hefter to us. Now why would Egypt do that? US supported militants from Libya used to attack inside Egypt, targeting Coptic Christians — with the not so thin disguise of stirring religious sectarian conflicts. Hopefully we remember from reports here in Antiwar at the time — Sisi brilliantly bombed militants in Libya, getting nation behind him against attrocities against Christians, making it all appear as fireign ohenomena with no aloroval in Egypt. He then continued bombing Islamists accross the border, giving Hefter a solud support jn moving against Benghazi.
Let us see what other brilliant moves we have to play in Libya? Having Saudis pressure Egypt? Too late, since MbS came to power, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have a deal that is outside US control. Can tired Europe be enlisted to demand “demicracy” and some other such values from General Hefter? Doubt it, EU will just parrot US line. Hefter clearly has money and arms. And since Kashoggi, UAE have been reminded by Saudis where their loyalties should be. The freelancing against the Prince and in favor of US is over. Do not count on UAE to be the mole in Hefter’s supporters.
Niw that Tripopoli government responded militarily at the symbolic wreck that is airport — Hefter’s hands are not tied by any concern for US feelings. Cannot wait next installment.
Once again, it’s the Pentagon vs. the CIA. I’m guessing the CIA will eventually prevail, as there’s no congressional oversight, no pesky rules to follow, no funding issues (Afghan drug money galore), and everything they do is done covertly and ignored by the MSM. The last president who wanted to “break the CIA up into little pieces” was JFK and look what happened to him.
So, a prosperous country underwent regime change thanks to the USA and it’s NATO Jackals. Intervention was by pretext. Many died. The population is much worse off.
It doesn’t matter if Democrats or Republicans win elections in the USA as the same bunch of DC psychopaths will run US foreign policy. The policies never change. The only way to end the carnage is to remove the means to engage in these interventions. That means strip DC of its tax and borrowing authority.