The UN has finalized an inquiry into the murder of journalist Jamal
Khashoggi, who was killed in early October in the Saudi Consulate in
Istanbul, Turkey. The conclusion, as widely expected, was that Saudi officials had “planned and perpetrated” the murder.
This conclusion has been a broad consensus, with a Saudi “kill team”
sent to the consulate for Khashoggi’s arrival and the journalist never
seen again. Various Saudi official narratives have likewise said that
the kill team murdered him, though in varying ways that would exonerate
the Saudi Crown Prince from direct responsibility.
The Saudis are still trying to sell that claim, but it’s getting weaker, as reports on Thursday were that the
Crown Prince told an aide that if they weren’t successful in luring
Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia he would “use a bullet” on him instead.
With top members of the kill team also close aides of the prince, it
isn’t hard to go from this comment, to Khashoggi’s brutal murder, and
start drawing some conclusions. President Trump is oe of the few
resisting that conclusion, fearing it would hurt US arms sales.
Right. Lef us believe an aide with a convenient information. And UN concludes that — gasp — Saudis did it? Of course they are Saudis! But who?
This is another one of “re-news” techniques so offen used by Trump detractors. Take an old story, repackage it as if there is something NEW happening. And the only reason for “re-news” is to keep a story alive.
There is no doubt that Kashoggi was killed by Saudis oposing MbS rise to power. They probably had plenty of help outside the country. What did not go to plan is a rather unusual situation — Turkey must have had intelligence and consequently covered the murder event in excruciating detail. Video, audio, people arriving by plane , their excellent photoss. No doubt that the Prince after receiving support ftom Allegiance Council — has the perpetratkrs in jail, and probably ring leaders. But it may be politically better for MbS to keep it under wraps and avoid open conflict. But it may come to that. It will nOt be in US interest. Yes, large goals are off the table — but US needs Saudi political support. That seems to be crumbling.
Kashoggi was killed by Saudis opposing MbS? That makes no sense.
If that were so and he could prove it, MbS could purge that opposition.
But he IS purging. But this is Kingdom, and feudal lords do it with golden parachutes for royal blood. In the wake of the murder, Allegiance Council
approved “reorganization” of intelligence apparatus and charged MbS with it. Purges have been going on ever since. Ritz-Carlton was an initial soft purge Saudi style. People with money and poser, and more importantly Saudi royal blood are treated with kid gloves.
It is not every day that such an abrupt change happens in Saudi line of succession — reasons must have been compelling. And the last straw was May 2017, with a declaration of intent to crush Qatar. Conditions that could not have been satisfied without Qatar capitulation, were presented. But Qatar brushed it off — replacing Saudi trade with other countries including Iran and Turkey. Turkey increased its military base presence. There was nothing Saudis could do. Remember Trump claimed credit for the debacle initially. The oversimplified and overconfident move was to shift all the blame for Islamic terrorism, including ISIS, from Saudi Arabia — on Qatar.
It exposed Saudi weakness. So in June 2017, Crown Prince was sacked. But there were other “straws”. Saudis were depleting their reserves rapidly after decades of funding proxy armies, from Al-Qaeda and later Taliban bound for Afghanistan, to terror groups in Iraq Libya and Syria. Many in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Caucases and Balkans were among the earliest recepients of Wahhabi extremism, head chopping variety. But Saudis and other Gulf royals and non-royal wealthy businesses were also paying for the miriad of Islamic charities, that were converting millions of poor to Salafism, or “true believers”.. Millions in poor Egyptian countryside during Mubarak rule. Millions of dispossesed Iraqi Sunnis after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Basically, Saudis were talking of selling portion of Aramco on stock market. Other messes included Yemen, crisis in relationship with Egypt, involvement in funding ISIS in Iraq and Syria, worsening relations with Turkey. Other huge mess was their future market. US decreased reliance on Saudi Arabia down to 6%, and China — the largest customer — was threatening to replace its supplies with Russian and other Central Asian oil.
Basically, decades of following Washjngton’s lead in geopolitics and paying for the “transformation” of Sunni Moslem world into a more centralized religious entity directed from Wahhabi Saudi Arabia — was not happening. Fishures in Arab world — whether to suppkrt natinalistjc brand of Islam like Moslem Brotherhood, or a globalistic brand like Mecca Wahhabism, split Gulf nations, and distanced countries like Turkey and Indonesia from Saudi Arabia. In Egypt it almost resulted in civill war, where military had an unemviable task of having to destroy Morsi’s Moslem Brotherhood elected government, to placate the Saudi supported millions of Salafis — as the countryside was pouring into
Cairo, threatening with civil war. But this did not quite placate our man, former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. No, Egypt was to be more pliable. At some point, Saudis suspended delivery of already paid for oil to Evypt.
But General Sisi won that war, as even pro-Saudi Salafis in Egypt were encouraged to be more nationalistic. Terrorist attacks on Coptic churches in Egypt was a perfect pretext for bombing Saudi funded Islamists in Lybia just accross the border. Two birds with one stone. Egyptian masses turned patriotic when Al-Sidi sent airforce to destroy Islamists in Libya. AND Al -Sisi led a nationwide sympathy for the death of Christians from those rerrorist attacks. This event was a catalyst in Egypt, linking attacks kn Copts with foreign terrorism, taking wind out of domestic, pro-Wahhabi anti-Christian terrorism.
These are but a few high level foreign policy dead ends Saudis have gotten themselves into. And strengthening of Baghdad and Damascus in the fight against ISIS and other brands of Salafism — along with overt (Syria) and covert (Iraq, Lebanon) influence of Russia in the region, all increased pressure on Saudi Arabia. Russia and China were offering deals, US mostly threats and expenditures.
And barely a month after ill advised threats against Qatar — Crown Prince MbN was gone, and King’s own son elevated to the post. But Saudi Arabia has not become a hereditary monarchy. By the decret of Allegiance Council , MbS cannot appoint his son to the throne. Decision reverts to the Allegiance Council.
And things have been changing rapidly since. First fix — good relationship with Sudan and Egypt, Red Sea countries. A coalition then met jn Cairo and quiey converted all hard conditions to Qatar to — principles! Priblem solved, but not for US. By keepng formal animosity towards Qatar, US can no longer pressure Saudis to lean on pro-Iran Qatar. Saudis pulled the rug from underneath Wahhabi funding of world-wide soft and hard power influence. Soft power still spends money on charities. A complete change in policy towards Russia and China. In a real blow to UAE, since attempted toppling of MbS, UAE that woorked witb US to undermine MbS — is eating crow. From Yemen to Syria and Lebanon. As for Yemen — conflict will end only after Saudi Arabia and US reach agreement on the control if Arabian side of Bab al Mandeb. If US vets out of the conflict — Saudis and Houthis would cut a deal tommorow.
What, we actually believe that Congress wants to end “involvement”” in Yemeni war? All Congress is doing is ending the illusion of supporting Saudis in this war. This will have to turn into an animosjty towards Saudis, and redefine our role as a humanitarian one. Ever since MbS took power, Saudis were challenging us on US intended role in Yemen — one, two or more Yemens. Thus, genocide became splashed across media universe, blaming the rogue Prince. But we are not lifting naval blockade and food is trickling in through UN only upon our approval. This war will not end anytime soon, and neocons must be itching to go to war against uplity Saudjs that would not give up Yemen.
Many things are changing in Saudi foreign policy, even though they try to work with Us on accommodatimg their interests. Investments in Russia, and collaboration with China in Pakistan, among many others. Disparching UAE and Bahrein to reopen embasxies in Damascus.
Among higher level internal changes — change in the ministry of foreign affairs, including the Minister himself.
Well, as replied to in a different post, there is circumstantial evidence that MbS was framed, but its all circumstantial.
Many of the purges you describe could be for botching the murder by getting caught; whether or not he ordered the hit, mishandling the impact on his reputation matters.
If MbS’ Saudi rivals ordered the Kashoggi hit, its almost certain he’d let them take the fall and confiscate their wealth.
MbS is playing for regional hegemony; purging people for being too close to regional rivals such as Qatar, is more likely than purging over Kashoggi.
Purges to secure MbS were ongoing even before the Kashoggi murder.
As for Congress, Saudi Arabia is a regional rival to Israel; Congress seems to have been asked to choose a side.
The collapse of regime change in Syria removed a major reason for the Saudi-Israel alliance. Its a small factor, but if Israel can’t get its way in Syria, they probably figure Saudi Arabia shouldn’t get its way (and U.S. resources) in Yemen.
its much more likely that K was the guy tasked with toppling MBS by parts of DC
Given how many connections Kashoggi had, this on surface makes sense. But he himself was not the caliber. Kashoggi was not a real threat, eve though Jeff Bezos was in his side.
The timing of the murder makes no sense. Timed just days before MbS major investment conference, it accomplished onebof its goals — allowed Western participants to withdraw and wreck the participation.
I couldn’t care less. Not our business.
It’s several billion dollars worth of “our business”. Remember all the bragging surrounding this issue when the deal was made ??
You sound like one of those “high principled” liberal interventionists.
You sound like someone who needs to use an ad hominen attack to cover up your lack of knowledge and empathy.
As long as we prop up that dust-land terror factory with our dollars we share in the responsibility for their crimes. We can make it none of our business by ending our business with such scum. The Saudis would quite simply cease to exist without our largess. Their Kingdom would sink into the sand like Ozymandias.
We aren’t propping them up. They, unlike the Israelis, pay for their weapons from us. If we stopped selling, they would just buy from other sources, such as Russia. You think that would make them sink into the sand?
Even if that were true (it’s not), that doesn’t make it right. If Russia wants to make there hands filthy then that’s a stain on their conscience, not ours. Just because “somebody is gonna fund Hitler” doesn’t mean it has to be us. With that being said, Russia is unlikely to choose the duplicitous Sauds over their trustier Iranian neighbors, though China might.
P.S. You also have to take into account the money that goes into the phalanx of bases in Saudi Arabia’s puppet states in the Gulf, which were only moved from Saudi sand (except for one) after the bastards started getting hit by their own terrorists for desecrating the Holy Land. The US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar exist for the primary purpose of protecting the Sauds from their own people.
$355,000? Really, that’s the big funding we give them? Meanwhile the Saudis invest hundreds of billions in US based assets. Also, those gulf military bases aren’t there to protect Saudi Arabia (they need no protection), but rather for the war hawks in DC to play their game of thrones as they try to dominate the region.
And no I do not approve of Saudi actions in general. I just think it needs to be approached in a realistic way.
So profit over people is your final answer ?
One dollar to a war criminal is a dollar too much, $355,000 is just what’s on the record, and propping up dictators like the Sauds is what allows war hawks to play game of thrones. One of the things all our selected enemies have in common is their unwillingness to allow us to abuse their real estate.
https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/SAU
I don’t know why Disqus ate my link.
Saudi Arabia may still think 1170 was just yesterday and everyone will easily accept Kashoggi as a latter-day Thomas Beckett.
Saudis are allied with USA and Israel. What other evidence do you need to decide their morality?