In an opinion piece published Wednesday evening, Venezuela’s would-be
interim President and opposition leader Juan Guaido confirmed that his faction is engaged in secret talks with members of Venezuela’s military, trying to gin up support for regime change.
Guaido conceded in the comments that the “transition” to his rule would
require support from certain key parts of the military. He added that
there have been offers of “amnesty” for those who are not guilty of
crimes against humanity.
So far, all indications are that the Venezuelan military is securely
behind President Maduro, despite offers of amnesty and US cajoling.
Bringing enough of them on board for a regime change is a tall order.
Analysts warn that the efforts are also risky, potentially leading to a
schism within the Venezuelan military that could lead to open fighting
and a broad civil war. Though this might serve as an excuse for the
oft-threatened US intervention, it would likely be disastrous for
Venezuela’s already struggling economy.
…. If these talks are so secret why did Guaido announce them?
His masters in the US told him to.
I’ll bet they aren’t happening at all.
Things have changed. In the not so distant past, they would do something together- conspire ,arm,twists,and create situations to get to the objectives and then be done with it with a denialof ever doing any of those. Now they brag thunder threaten and bad mouth. But nothing is achieved .
There seems to be little interest in the Venezuelan military to revolt nonetheless.
A bunch of hypocrites.
Guaido is starting to smell a lot like Pinochet, maybe more like Ngo Dinh Diem. He’s looking to Venezuela’s corrupt military for officers totally lacking in professionalism, honesty, and patriotism who would turn on Maduro and the Chavistas. No doubt he’ll find some who are willing to be bribed, but those who really count, Venezuela’s special forces, are solidly behind Maduro, as is the majority of the population. They will resist any US invasion that the crazy neocons who surround Trump can cook up. This could look like Vietnam really fast, folks.
I’d rate the likelihood of an overt US invasion at maybe 5%, and that’s probably high-balling it.
If there’s open warfare between countries, the US will use a Latin proxy or proxies — a convenient border incident with Colombia or Brazil that escalates, with the US providing funding.
The more likely scenario is that even now US officials are shoveling the bribes at key Venezuelan military personnel and preparing an aid package that Guaido can promise “if the people rise up against Maduro.”
I’m surprised you think that Guaido is only starting to smell like Pinochet, given how long Maduro has already been wearing the scent.
Hmm… Elliot Abrams promising an aid package if the people rise up against Maduro? I’m guessing the Chavistas will look that gift horse in the mouth long and hard. They’re very familiar with living in abject poverty under US-backed regimes. The leftist guerillas who laid down their weapons a while back will pick them up again and head back to the jungle. Your move, Yankee dog!
The Chavistas aren’t who Guaido will be talking to. He’ll be talking to the people in the middle, which is probably most Venezuelans.
Guaido is holding himself out as the “legitimate president.” If key military personnel can be bribed to either stand their units down or bring them in on his side, and if he can credibly appeal to the people* with a promise that aid ships full of food and pharmaceuticals are standing by to start feeding them, etc., that may settle the hash. Even mildly pro-Chavista Venezuelans probably prefer eating to not eating.
* It’s unclear how successful Maduro has been in suppressing Guaido’s ability to communicate to the mass of Venezuelans. It probably works against Maduro that he’s been suppressing opposing media for several years — there’s been time for alternative means of communication to develop. If Venezuela had had a free press until last week, a sudden crackdown might have been successful in suppressing opposition communications.
Is this the same Thomas Knapp who was once against US interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs?
It’s the same Thomas Knapp who’s still against US interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs.
Predicting possible outcomes is not the same as approving of possible outcomes. Nor does any particular preference I might have between Guaido (an as yet unknown quantity) and Maduro (Pinochet fils) mean that I can’t oppose such intervention.
I don’t have to like Putin to oppose confrontation with Russia. I don’t have to like Assad to oppose intervention in Syria. I didn’t have to like Saddam to oppose the US invasion of Iraq. I don’t have to like the Taliban to say “US out of Afghanistan.”
“Guaido (an as yet unknown quantity)”
There’s a reason for that. He’s a capitalist and therefor inherently corrupt.
He’s taking orders from a Christian fascist capitalist named Mike Pence who is yet another CIA asset.
You wouldn’t have Maduro if it weren’t for the looting and pillaging necessary to support capitalism.
“The Chavistas aren’t who Guaido will be talking to. He’ll be talking to
the people in the middle, which is probably most Venezuelans.”
So you’ve recently visited ??
Nope. Which is why I said “probably.” I do have a couple of occasional contacts who live in Venezuela, but I haven’t heard from either of them in months.
Most people, in most polities, are somewhere in the middle when offered two extremes. They may end up picking one of the extremes, but that doesn’t mean they’re all-in for it or anything.
Maduro did win the election, Guaido was not even a contender and over 80% of the population in a poll do NOT want US ‘help’.
Why do you consider Maduro like Pinochet, the 17 year destroyer of Chile whose “Chicago boy” changes to the constitution removed real democracy far into the future?
Foreign media like BBC and CNN still have significant and anti Maduro presence in Venezuela. The languages used against Maduro sounded absolutely one sided blatant propaganda type speeches . It was not restricted to that either . These two media were on the ground talking to anti – Maduro ‘common folks ‘apparently . They were referring to the military ‘s support ( still not existent ) to Guiado and prophesying
imminent collapse of Maduro.
Venezuelan press has been quite active in politics for a longtime but not as an impartial observer or curious investigator or as a honest unbiased source of information or opinion.
The press was decidedly and firmly behind anti – Chavez force and now against anti Maduro force . Local TV has been no exception .
Foreign media like BBC and CNN still have significant and anti Maduro presence in Venezuela. The languages used against Maduro sounded absolutely one sided blatant propaganda type speeches . It was not restricted to that either . These two media were on the ground talking to anti – Maduro ‘common folks ‘apparently . They were referring to the military ‘s support ( still not existent ) to Guiado and prophesying
imminent collapse of Maduro.
Venezuelan press has been quite active in politics for a longtime but not as an impartial observer or curious investigator or as a honest unbiased source of information or opinion.
The press was decidedly and firmly behind anti – Chavez force and now against anti Maduro force . Local TV has been no exception .
They don’t need to bribe anyone so much as look closely at drug smuggling links.
Neither Guaido or Pinochet have Pinochet’s body count.
Here’s one silver-lining to this insane mess: if US intervention causes a level of chaos throughout S America that results in a massive refugee crisis, where do you think those hungry migrants are going to walk? If there’s any justice, the answer is NORTH.
As Bolton has made clear, this isn’t just about Venezuela. The Trump admin intends to re-make the region, and repressive strongmen aren’t actually what they care about. They can’t stand socialism and any resources being outside of the control of capitalists.
As far as migration from Central America’s concerned, that’s already been happening. 3 caravans of migrants – a 3rd of them violent criminals – are already in Mexico, and the US is NOT allowing them to cross the border onto its own soil. Only a few sick ones are allowed in – only for treatment – and must return to Mexico once the treatments are done.
As for Venezuela, there won’t be any US intervention in that country, since that would entail Russia and China coming to Venezuela’s aid.
This mess was created by Bonkers Bolton and somewhat by Pompous Pompass, as well as the Trotskyists aka Neocons surrounding Trump in the White House. These warmongers don’t belong in the White House and must be ousted by Trump himself.
. “3 caravans of migrants – a 3rd of them violent criminals – are already
in Mexico, and the US is NOT allowing them to cross the border onto its
own soil.”
Do you have anything to back up that claim or are you just repeating gossip ?
Russia and China are too far away to actually do very much. Putin sent in some Wagner group mercs to protect Maduro, but they can’t stop a violent colour revolution.
I doubt the gun ownership and carry stats have changed much in the past 20 years. Last I heard, 1 in 4 carries a handgun. Escalating the situation to open conflict will result in a staggering bloodbath. They’re likely to continue to work the military over, trying to take advantage of poor funding and corruption as much as possible. This could easily escalate.
It sort of already is a bloodbath. Gun ownership was severely restricted by Chavez in 2012, the result being cops murdered for their guns, and the government arming popular militias.
Of course, even before then there was considerable armed criminal violence.
https://thehill. com/opinion/campaign/383968-in-the-wake-of-a-gun-ban-venezuela-sees-rising-homicide-rate
Maduro asked for talks, all reasonable outsiders ask the same. “Gweedo” is a troublemaker.
Greedo from Star Wars is a merely misunderstood bounty hunter…