A series of explosions have been reported in and around the Syrian
capital city of Damascus on Sunday and into early Monday morning. Eschewing their transitional secrecy about the process, the Israeli Army tweeted almost immediately taking credit for the attacks.
Officially, the Israeli attacks are targeting the Iranian Quds Force
inside Syrian territory. There are no details on what was actually hit,
but this has generally meant Shi’ite militias and various warehouses
around the Damascus airport.
Syrian media reported that for the first time ever, they deployed Buk-M2 interceptors
against the Israeli missiles, and that most of the Israeli airstrikes,
particularly those carried out during daylight, were intercepted.
Israeli media also reported that Syria had fired a single surface-to-surface missile
into the Golan Heights in retaliation, after the Israeli Army’s tweet
warning Syria against trying to do anything about the attacks. There was
no word on the type of missile in this case, but Israel claimed to have
intercepted it with an Iron Dome at any rate.
The Netanyahu government has made a big point of continuing to attack
Syria irrespective of warnings from Russia, and has always insisted Iran
is the target. While this strike has last mystery surrounding it than
most, it remains unclear what was actually hit, and what casualties, if
any, were inflicted.
… Trumps pullout is the target…
Exactly. I can just imagine Nethanyahu’s threat. If you pull out, we will keep on war with Syria on whatever pretext, and when things go wrong — US will be obligated to come back in a bigger way then before. So, choice is – stay steady with Kurds, build eventual state for Kurds friendly with Israel, and give Arabs another ethnic cleansing to talk about, and have less time for Palestinians.
But thus time Israel is misculculating. And they will be allowed to fire on imaginary Iranians, presenting a target practice to Syrian missile defences. It is however very interesting that targeting is always around airports. It is clear signal to Syrian defenders not to target planes but only missiles, as civilian aircraft is in the area. It is also a signal to Arab countries that reopened their embassies in Damascus that the country is not safe, and they are not safe — and nit to dream planning reconstruction.
Misculculation, I think. Russia is keaving them alone, as many grand bargains may be under way, and this is small potatoe. With Middle East in reallignment, it is by far more critical to US to maintain commercial/military base ties to the region, then to contemplate expansion if ME footprint. There are too many things in the hopper.
You may have ID’d the unofficial U.S. endgame; to have base concessions in Syria alongside Russia as well as inside-track economic concessions.
Syria and Russia would be ill-advised to do so, but its not clear if the U.S. or Israel are miscalculating the limits of Russian will. If Syria is mistakenly seen as small potatoes, then there is no miscalculation.
The U.S. will push for more internal leverage for itself and Israel, till indigenous Syrian and Russian interests are forced out. The unofficial unofficial endgame appears to simply make Syria safe for terrorism as leverage in that quest.
Yes, this appeads to be in search of an end game. But Israel is the one who is miscalculating. We will soon find out if I am wrong, and if Israel has more tricks up its sleeve. The reason I think it is miscalculation — is overall state of affairs, both in ME and at home. For Russia, Syria is important, as it is a synbol of its staying power in the region. Even before US pull out announcement, the region has made up its mind — they have accepted Syria, its government, Assad, and Hezbollah role in defending Lebanon’s border against ISIS, and against ISIS infiltration of Lebanese Syrian refugee camps. They accepted Turkey and its role, in denying US plans to expand Kurdish territory West of Euphrates and into Afrin, its role as political guarantir of Syria peace settlement along with Russia and Iran, as well as its agressive posture against US-YPG design on staying put East of Euphrates, controlling Turkey-Syria and Iraq-Syria borders. The Arab stares have also taken note of growing Palestinian role in Syria, as they have formed Palestinian militias, defending Palestinian camps, Yarmouk particularly, from ISIS. ISIS was merciless there, denying humanitarian aid to population, and killing civilians mercilessly. The idea that battle hardened and armed Palestinians in the region is the outcome of this Syria adventure is striking fear in Jordan, where over 50% of population is Palestinian. They do not all have citizenship, as UNRWA is paying them as refugees. Trump has many reasons to cut funds to Palestinian refugees, first and obvious pecuniary, but he also wants to resolve the issue of Palestinian return rights, by insuring that those who already made life for themselves, get citizenship and have a permanent home. This has created a serious crisis in Jordan. Three things happened simltaneiusly. Besides the threat of Palestinian majority, there is a theeat of Palestinian uprising, should Jordan try to block citizenship to thise no longer in refugee status. Second, Jordan was a key training ground for US armed “rebels”, and damaged relations with Assad — who now has Palestiniam militias, well armed and commanded, battle experienced. What an example for its own Palestinian polulation without status! Israel is taking note as well. And Jordan suffered one more setback, as for the first time, Saudis are giving them only loans, not grants to deal with budget shortfalls. No Gulf state, would have come to Damascus to reopen embassies, and send newly accredited am assadors to Damascus, without Saudi concurrence. Think of Bahrein. With nearly 90% Shia polulation ruled by Sunni monarchy, and Saudi tanks in the streets ever since the bloodbath in 2012, is now very openly, nearly theatrically supporting Assad. Symbology gallore. In UN, Bahrein Foreign Minister embraced his Syrian counterpart in a very public setting. He also refused to call Syrian government “regime”. “We deal with governments”, he said, “even if we do not always agree with them. We do not deal with those trying to bring down governments by force”. A very clear message nit just to “rebels” in Idlib, or US and West at large. Just try to imagine what it neans to Bahrein’s Shia population. This is an olive branch, as Assad is a hero there. And another message — we have no problem with Shia ruler in predominantly Sunni country, and in Bahrein, holefully there will be no more objections to Sunni monarchy in predominantly Shia country. This is a message to Iran as well. No more will it be accussed of inciting Shia population to rebel. To switch now to US. NY Times is publishing article on Palestinian issue, comparing the courage to talk about it to Martin Luther King’s courage to talk about Vietnam. Lobby is threatening response. Are these pre-election moves, rather desparate to keep the progressives in Democratic party? Looks like. With Democrats now standing for regime change, foreign interventions, and endless wars — the Palestinian issue has become another divisive issue. Progressives or anybody fed up with Demicratic party may not go for Trump, but they may stay at home. This may be a trial baloon to see if Democrats can be portrayed as less Israel loving then Trump, just enough to get the progressive base out to vote.
In ME the region, shift is occuring. One could not thought it possible short time ago, but Kuwait sent their prominent media personality to interview Assad and the interview was a hit in Kuwait. He was called a hero. Keeping in mind 40% Shia population there. But the shift among Sunnis is astounding. After what happened to Iraq and the brutal picture that ISIS created of Sunnis — the backlash against the Salafi and Wahhabi cults is massive. Sunnis call these “appostafes”, as they violate key tenets od Sunni faith. With Shia-Sunni conflict currency losing its value — not much is lleft for Israel to exploit. Lately, a flurry of anti-Turkish propaganda has been splashed, presumably making Arabs fear Turkish intentions. Turkey trying to revive Ottoman Empire is the most popular. Presumably Mossad is meeting with Arab countries talking about Turkish threat. Turkey presumably suppkrts Moslem Brotherhood — a message of fear to Egypt. The problem is, such theatrics have lost their magic in the absence of US threat to the region. With Iraq stabilising politjcally — not much can be done to stir up the pot. Turkey still has base in Iraq and Qatar, and will open one in Sudan, on the Red Sea. Anybody that daft not recognizing Russian and Chinese propping up Turkey? Qatar officials are periodically in Riyadh, and Russia-Saudi military deals are happening under radar. Saudi Fireign minister has been replaced with the one not tainted with previous policies. The new one has background in economy, not geopolitics.
The end game Israel wants alpears is not alligned with end game US can achieve. Thus, reckless behavior. Damascus is taking this to UN SB, asking the “warmingers” , US, France and UK — to stop Israeli bombing raids on Damascus airport, or else Syria will bomb Tel Aviv airport. As Israel has been bragging about its achievements in Syria — this makes it easier to identify it as agressor.
Israel is clearly doing everything to stall US withdrawal and came up with Iranian excuse to intensify pressure. But if Gulf states have no problem with Iranian military advisers in Syria — this leaves Israel isolated.
Whatever the endgame for US controlled Syria — it must not be against interests of Iraq, Turkey and Gulf states. US cannot afford to lose them. Israel can either help US to remain on good terms with the region — which Russia does not mind — or making US life harder by extreme demands.
There is something in the hopoer. A “traitor” to the cause of anti-Asad coalition, ine exiled tribal leader in Deir Azzor, Iraqi border region, has been consulting with Moscow. Possible way to let Turkey deal with North-Eastern Syria and Eastern Eulhrates valley, and tribal local government in the rest. This would give Syria control of Iraqi and Jordan borders. On Golan, Druzi tribes are loyal to Assad, and chances of Israel expanding Golan are slim to none. In order to get Gulf states to provide even a fig leaf to US influence in region — something else will have to give. Whatever US demans are fir settling Yemen with Saudi Arabia — will have to be modified.
All Israel us trying to achieve is a crisis to get US back in full blown mide. But having already the reputation of troublemaker that drags US into ME wars, and WITHOUT any other threat to the region — this is a bad idea. Anti-Iran fever has been reduced to merely symbolic mention in the Gulf — what crisis can be exploited?
Syrian threat of attacking Tell Aviv airport could not have been done without Russian support. The threat will have polular support on every street in the ME, Africa, Central Asia, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia and beyond. Every country with sizeable Moslem polulation (India, Thailand, Phillipines) will want to apoease them if oossible by denouncing Israel’s bombing of Damascus airport.
I just cannot see Israel’s antics being a winner for US, or helping with end game. What will it take to get US satisfied with broader ME deal — let us see. I am betting on rather little. US has to open nuclear talks with Russia and China — and soon. And the talk of future weapons in soace are small consolation in the face of the real ones being currently deployed by Russia and China. We are behind in science and that is our real problem. Democrats better let Trump talk.
Israel is the mascot of U.S. and European imperialism, creating a difficult contradiction for the Empire,
No mascot, no overwhelming unthinking public support for imperial exceptionalism and promised-landism.
Yet, the Israel’s needs are a drag to material efficiency and incites overwhelming opposition.
NPR is reporting that the Israelis fired in retaliation to the Syrian launch into Golan Heights. This report indicates Israel fired first. Can anyone confirm the actual order of events?
So buried half way through the NYT report on this is the fact that the Golan Heights attack was in response to an earlier Israeli attack on a weapons depot. So anti war is correct and everyone in the mainstream is spinning this as Syria just randomly firing a missile at Israel. Pathetic.
The way I heard it over NPR in the early, early morning was that IIRC Israel had launched off some rockets that were intercepted. Not sure but they might have mentioned an Israeli hit on some target in Idlib. With this report it came across that what followed was a Syrian retaliation. Here’s an interesting thing though: If you’re prone to listen to the opening remarks and then let your mind wander, the beginning of the report did not mention the scads of prior Israeli missile attacks right then when it should have (so the types that listen to only the beginning would think there was some worthy target Israel was gunning for, and then Syria had the nerve to target some spot right near a Golan Heights ski resort). I thought the background given was sort of couched in a way that mentioned the many prior Israeli strikes too far toward the end of the interview–lackadaisical listeners could have already by then formed an opinion regarding what happened. This report I heard I believe mentioned twice Iran and its proxies…which sounded like an inuendo maybe that Hezbollah was right there with’em. What’s the evidence for that?
Who was it Pompeo who said he keeps a Bible open on his desk? I would remind him there is a New Testament, a new way of thinking about war and peace that he seems to be unaware of.