Initially ratified in 1987, the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty
(INF), which famously kept all nuclear missiles out of Europe for
decades, is set to collapse, with US officials saying they will withdraw from the treaty next month.
The US has been accusing Russia of violating the INF for years related
to a single missile design, called the 9m729, and its maximum range. The
INF forbids all nuclear missiles with ranges between 500 km and 5,500
km.
The core of this issue is that the 9m729 is being designed as a
replacement for the 9k720 Iskander, a short-range ballistic missile that
has a range of 400 km, and is subsequently compliant with IMF. Russia
maintains that the new missile has only been tested to the 400 km range
itself, and is therefore also complaint.
US officials, however, have accused the new missile of being comparable
to the 3M-54 Kalibr, a submarine-launched missile with a range of 660
km. A submarine-launched missile of that range is allowed under INF, but
a ground-based version would be banned. The US saw the similarity and
concluded the new missile must have a similar, banned range.
Russia made a last-minute bid to save the INF on Wednesday, offering the
US a “static display” look at the new missile to confirm what it is. US
officials are demanding complete access to it, and unsurprisingly
Russia isn’t willing to hand over a brand new missile system to the
United States to take apart and study, which US officials are claiming
is the only way to really know its potential maximum range.
Why the cheap drama? We want to get out — so let us get out without whining. This is where some “toxic masculinity” is prefered to a sickening , nauseating pretense of righteousness. Reminds me more of a Middle East bargaining with a predictable drama by the seller hawking his wares, complaining loudly of being cheated by a customer’s offer. In this case Russia being the customer, is not quite buying the victimhood.
Since the USA disdains any pretense of peace, cooperation, international law, diplomacy or any other actions which allow the possibility of harmony and
rivalry without conflict, this is no surprise. Normal relationships are able to incorporate changes and additions if necessary to overcome possible misunderstandings if the situation is important enough. To most humans on the earth, the survival of humanity and even other species is vital, but this seems to be missing in the USA “administrations”.
As always, the US presents no proof for its accusations, nor will it take Russia`s offer to inspect the missile.
Another US broken treaty.
I wholeheartedly agree with you, Jim. The US, as always, presents no proof for its accusations, nor will it take Russia’s offer to inspect the missile .. another broken treaty.
Donald Trump’s no Ronald Reagan.
Spot on Eileen.
The demise of the INF will not lead to another arms race, rather a race to rearm, like in the 1930s. There is also much talk of New Cold War: but the Cold War was the peace. The world has experienced periods of peace (or relative peace) throughout history. The Thirty Years Peace between the two Peloponnesian Wars, Pax Romana, Europe in the 19th century after the Congress of Vienna, to name a few. They all ended: followed by war.
An evidence-based analysis points to another world war. The Congress System finally collapsed in 1914 with the start of World War One. That conflict was followed by the League of Nations. It did not stop World War Two. That was followed by the United Nations and other post-war institutions. All the indications are they will not prevent a third world war.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
The demise of INF is — from US internal political perspective — a compromise. Defense establishment must understand the implications of disruptive new technoligy Russia has brought to bear in the comfortable advantage US enjoyed. Eurooe protected by INF, US with submarine advantage backed up by network of naval and air bases, preventing Russia to deploy naval assets. And then the next phase brought about “missile defence” — Iran, North Korea, being excuse — resulting in land based short-range missile istallatiins in Europe and Asia.
Looking back at Russia-China cooperation, it became apparent that China was moving in the direction of boosting its naval assets in its region, but focusing on limited goals. Not Russia. Appart from acting rather docile in submarine cat and mouse game — actual naval assets remained limitted. This should have been the warning sign — sign that money and effort are directed elsewhere.
This is why I believe that this is not a race to rearm in run up to the war. Neither side wants it. US and its allies primarily because of the scientific gap that suddenly sprung upon a well-polished, comfortable advantage. Russia and China — because they do not need to do anything in order to solidify the assymetrical
advantage.
I mentioned that the cancellatiion is a compromise. Military experts understand now Russian docile posture in Naval assets. AI based sub-drones, unlimited range/time of deployment take away advantages of global naval reach, However, we have political leadership that is pushing for confrontation. Regardless of motives — and sure there are many — the political wing pushing for confrontation with Russia — is ignoring all the warning signes. The fact that our intelligence failed in understanding the breath of scientific and technoligical impact of Russia’s new classes of weapons, is surprising. Is this an act? . One does not have to be a military expert to interpret the Congressional hearings on the subject.
The hawks are hoping for a “limited” conflict using existing advantages, ASSUMING that the opponent will not be ready to counter meaningfully. What they are hopling to achieve is a short win for prestige — putting on notice our allies with shaken confidence to buckle up.
These are dangerous times — as false flags are all that remains in the arsenal of those who desparatey want the conflict to ratchet up, and against those who want to have a pause, and assess strategic directions. Current course may not make any sense in new circumstances. INF cancellation frees up the President to engage in negotiations in a brand new armaments environment. And is also creating an aura of recklessness, to be interpreted as confidence.
But none will convince military experts — and I am not talking of those that play experts on TV. Danger of miscalculation is high — and that should give more weight to military technoligical leadership and less to political loudmouths. Let’s hope they have not all been contracted out!
It sounds like there might actually be a bit of substance to the US complaint. Which isn’t important, because Russia has reciprocal grievances, and as others have commented the US is looking for something to blame Russia over to kill the agreement, not a constructive resolution of mutual concerns.
This takes comparing dicks to a whole new level. WWIII, here we come.
The spirit that was: Mr. Reagan and Mr. Gorbachev both exuded warmth, with Mr. Reagan quoting Russian proverbs, Mr. Gorbachev quoting Ralph Waldo Emerson and both men exchanging frequent smiles in what seemed to be a spirit of satisfaction and expectation. ”We can only hope that this history-making agreement will not be an end in itself,” President Reagan said, ”but the beginning of a working relationship that will enable us to tackle the other issues, urgent issues, before us: strategic offensive nuclear weapons, the balance of conventional forces in Europe, the destructive and tragic regional conflicts that beset so many parts of our globe, and respect for the human and natural rights that God has granted to all men.” https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/09/politics/reagan-and-gorbachev-sign-missile-treaty-and-vow-to-work-for.html
Agreements and treaties have always been and will continue to be broken when they no longer serve the interest of the party which opts out. Hence Trump’s intent to leave the INF has absolutely nothing to do with the range of these Russian rockets. For reasons which only he knows/understands President Trump has concluded that staying in the INF is not in the national interest of our nation.
Same for NATO. Opting to get out has nothing to do with NATO payments/support but is only considered because president Trump for reasons which only he knows/understands wants us to get out.
INF and NATO apparently do not fit in his New World Concept. I have not the foggiest idea what Trump’s real rationale is. If there is one.
Unfortunatelly, I can see a number of reasons. First and foremost, treaty has worked for US. While it imposed constraints — to appease Europeans that did not cherrish being an easy target, INF created a constraint on Russia, while building upon its main technolgical advantage — submarines. So while Russia was limited in endangering Europe by not having short-range, hard to defend from missiles, US and Western countries could use nuckear submarines to bring them practically to the limits of Russian territorial waters in the North or inside Baltic Sea, even Gulf of Finland. This advantage allowed other “interpretations”, such as land based “missile defence”, easily convertible to short range cruise missile strike capability. Russia’s deterrent — intercontinental ballistic misiles — was being undermined.
This advantage also allowed US navy to spread far afield, controlling oceans and straights, being able to choke off anybody’s trade at will. This logic, that US can and should influence critical maritime routes, is applied — probably for the last time — in the ill-fated battle for the control of Yemen and Bab Al -Manded (The Passage of Sorrows).
So why get out of the treaty now? I am very sure that it has EVERYTHING to do with the new Russian strategy to adress their weakening nuclear deferent in the face of nuclearly armed submarines, land and ship based “missile defence”, in practice short-range cruise missiles. Two bases — Poland and Romania, and ships with limited — but sufficient — access to Black Sea, have established seemingly an unsurmountable advantage. Until March1 announcement. With the new classes of weapons, both air and sea based, the new Russian advantage has emerged. First, missiles with MIRV capability, and 20+ Mach speeds, eliminates the old paradigm — fast but predictable ballistic missiles, and short but slowcruise missiles. With one air based supersonic (Mach 10) cruise missiles already delloyed, and MIRV based in the final test, the vulnerability is now not just theirs.
But the most feared is code named Poseidon, nuclearly powered submarine drone, capable of speads higher then torpedoes, of getting to deptha off limits to submarines, unlimjted range and time of deployment, with cruise missile capability both nuclear and conventional, and ability to target coastal infrastructure. Without even getting into the newly announced unlimuted range nuclearly powered cruise missike — let us reflect what it means to Trump. It simply means that arms race and scientific race — must be addresses thrkugh negotiations. But, given politics — he just cannot fo that. To make matters worse, there is every reason to believe that China and Russia are combining efforts and eliminating duplication of work.
Trump’s recent Tweet on the insanity of arms race and his desjre to sit down with Putin and Xi. The truth is — European allies are not adding much to the overall capability of Western alliance, and Trump is in my view right to adress global security with key powers.
There is every reason to believe that Chinese will test/deploy same calabilities, no matter their name. As it is clear as a day that they are working jointly on scientific experiments, just as it should not be far fetched to see how Chinese factory floors coukd be mass producing components.
Trump is here engaging in high stakes game — absence of INF is now opening Eurolean theater to possible misculculatiins.
I do not think that Russia believes that US is about to embark on ratchetting up short range cruise missile systems in Europe. No, Russia’s concern is — potential for miscalculation in the newly found workd without rules. Rusdia has put up for years with the disadvantages, allowing US subs to play cat and mouse games with Russian subs under Arctic ice and in Russia’s back yard. But it stuck to the treaty. Treaty allowed for communications — deconfliction and coordination.
Trumpp must start negotiations on arms control. But considering the low point in relations — level of trust must be rebuilt.
Us corporations want $ and this is a new market…
The capitalist class has completely lost its marbles.
Its management class aka the liberals are as batshit crazy as the right wing nut jobs they pretend to oppose.
This isn’t going to end well for humankind.