Questions about the future of bilateral nuclear deals between the US and
Russia continue to grow, as both nations once again traded accusations
that the other had violated existing deals, following a meeting in
Geneva on the matter.
US officials once again declared Russia to be “in material breach” of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty,
based on the theoretical range of a Russian missile. Russia has denied
the missile has a long enough range to be covered by INF, and has never
tested it at such ranges.
Russia fired back, saying that the US compliance with New START has problems,
and that the US has refused to allow Russia to verify the conversion of
some B-52H bombers and Trident II ballistic missile launchers for
conventional weapons use.
In both cases, the US and Russia aren’t eager to offer one another the
level of access needed to verify compliance with the letter of these
treaties. Since this mistrust seems to be getting worse, not better,
attempts to negotiate an extension of New START, or any other nuclear
deals, will be in a serious doubt.
Like the US insistence on Afghan bases (the most inconvenient location imaginable), refusing to negotiate in good faith over nuke deals strategically shoots the US in the foot, since the US surrounds Russia with bases and spends 10x as much on the military as Russia does. They should be the first to drag their feet, because they need the deterrence against US attack. Yet they are smart enough to not want to waste money on weapons they can’t use outside of a suicide pact.