The US military has announced that the process of withdrawing the estimated 2,000 US troops in Syria has officially begun. They say there will be no specifics reported on numbers or timelines because of “operational security.”
This follows a week of speculation about the process, and comes just a day after Pentagon officials said that there had been no changes to the timeline, despite John Bolton’s weekend talk of making the pullout “conditional.”
And while the military isn’t giving any specifics, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is. The observatory reported that a convoy of US armored vehicles was the first of the pullout, and was seen leaving the town of Rmeilan into neighboring Iraq.
That the process of withdrawing from Syria involves driving into Iraq, and the US troops are all on the side of Syria closest to the Iraq border, it once again raises questions of why the pullout is expected to take months, instead of the few hours such a trip would take.
The plot thickens….
As the war rhetoric towards Iran escalates.
Also yes.
Yeah, but hopefully not into another quagmire.
Wouldn’t count on it.
Sigh. Nope. Africa beckons, and too many warhawks have Iran on the brain. They would want both…
Good to see a start.
They say being clear and honest with the public would give secrets to our enemies, which is a tricky concept out there. Kurdish friends feeling betrayed? Turkish allies who do what we don’t want? Syrian Iranian and Russian forces who the US is trying to thwart but whose involvement is perfectly legal and who are fighting all the jihadists? The jihadists we used to arm and who our allies still are arming? Or the truly hardcore jihadists who were inspired to action by the US invasion of Iraq?
Operational security is not total BS, but in this stew of ambiguity and violence our government has cooked up, US forces and interests might be safer if we were quite clear about what’s happening and when.
Even if it takes days or weeks, why tell the terrorists?
Do you mean the terrorists that we are protecting?
It is not for the sake if terrorists that the timeline and details are being kept ambivalent. We can at this point easily point to a map of Syria and identify any village, hamlet, hill or valley where anybody called “ terrorist” occupies. There were always only three categories of armed groups in Syria, all funded from third parties. First group, Al-Qaeda based, changing name three times to avoid UN terrorist designation. The core group, Nusra, collected groups of locals everywhere it expanded. Thus, it could never count on loyalty by those it forcibly or for money included into its ranks. It also had foreign fighters, deluded Moslem youth from Europe and Asia, that joined them using Turkish Kurdistan services to get accross border. Nusra and foreign fighters are now in Idlib, after locals signed deal with Damascus. They still have political support from the West, like White Helmets and imbedded reporters.
But it is unlikely they will be supported much longer, given that GCC countries are making nice to Assad, and advocate Syria’s right to control its territory. I do not think UK will continue shelling out funds. A negotiated solution for Idlib will happen, or a military action. But these are not in US controlled territory, they are surrounded, and NEVER targeted US interests in Syria.
Second large collection of militants came under the banner of Islamism, Salafi cult like communities, some locally sourced, some imported. Funded mostly by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey and Qatar. But they were NOT working together — Free Syrian Army and other islamist groups under many names, worked for Turkey and Qatar — mosty along Turkish and Iraqi border. Their principal enemies were Kurds, and Assad was seen as helping Kurds get their autonomous region on those borders as a favor for supporting him against Islamists. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and UAE supported Isllamists that fought Syrian Army. While CIA supported Islamists — even anti-Kurdish Free Syrian Army, Pentagon invested in getting Kurds away from Assad. Islamists fought each other for local control, and were not effective fighting Syrian Army. None of them EVER endangered or threaten to endanger US interests. None of them today is a factor. Many signed reconciliatikn deal with Assad long time ago, and after Saudis pulled the plug on funding — either joined HTS (Nusra), or went under Turkish control. US has no contact with any of them on the US controlled territory. And the third, ISIS while a newcomer to Syria — was meticulously planned and organized in Iraq from the units of former Sunni Awakening — a creation of Gen Petraeus. Ir was well financed, equippped, supllied by telecom gear, transport, salaries. And well commanded, as they overwhelmed Iraqi army by having good intelljgence and an element of surlrise. The cruelty towards Iraqi soldiers was disseminated deliberately to serve as a warning to Sunni tribes to accept ISIS rule. And it served as propaganda to Moslems everywhere to join. In Syria, however, ISIS was strategic. It attached Kobane and inflicted cruelty on civilians — resulting in understanding that Damascus cannot help them. Following that period, Kurd factions. that favored wirking with US prevailed. And ISIS took a whole string of towns and villages along Turkish border, and strategic towns like Al-Bab, and aling Euphrates valley, including Raqqa and all the way down to Deir Azzor and along Iraqi border — eliminating border losts. ISIS was essentially creating borders of future Kurdish domain supported from air by US. ISIS was Gulf states project, primarily Saudi Arabia in support of US policy in Iraq and Syria. In October of 2015 Russia moved in to suppkrt Damascus against armed militants, be they local or foreign supported. Iraq eventually introduced its own brand of deception, by fielding Shia militias independently from Army. As Army was coordinating with US — and did not have strategic or tactical independence, this unifficial army could fight on the basis of intelligence provided by joint Iranian, Iraqi and Russian intelligence center set up in Baghdad. The liberation of Iraq thus proceeded in this strange triangular manner — with US bombing, Iraqi Army coordinating with US and militias doing what Iraqi government really wanted to do.
In Syria, after the failed coup attempt in Turkey, fight against ISIS took in a different dimension. Instead of ISIS abandoning places in favor of Kurds and their military councils, Turkey liberated area along its border, to prevent Kurds from creating corridor along border to Afrin. By cutting off the Rojava design, Turkey also liberated area from Jarabulus to Al-Bab, forcing ISIS to retreat into US controlled area. More ISIS came from Iraq, fortifying itself in US controlled area. As Turkey threatened to invade to kick ISIS out of Euphrates valley — US and Kurds moved in to remive ISIS from Raqqa, and from Euphrates valley. Syrian Army threatened in Deir Azzor . The most bizarre incidents occured when HS bombed Syrian army base allowing ISIS to advance. Later, ither bombings were done to protect Kurds — as if anybody threatened them. It was clear — it was to protect Kurdish future state even though less then 2% if Kurds actually live in that 1/3 of Syria outside Kobane region. Turkey then took charge on the issue of Kurd nation building m, demanding YPG exit from Manbij. With that falling on deaf ear — Turkey readed its forces to attack YPG center, Kobane. And since June 2017 affer Saudi royal court coup, suppkrt for ISIS was cut. The remnants, mostly villages and hamlets once rulled by ISIS were now back under local islamist rule. They are still called ISIS — with no justification. There is no black flag flying anywhere over any territory. BUT — and this is a big one — Kurds could not allow any independent territory in their future state. This is why US us still fighting ISIS in Syria, even though ISIS as Gulf suppirted entity is long gone. At this point neitger Turkey nor Syria — or Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrein, Oman or Kuweit — support HS effort to take part of Syria and gift it to its minority population. And then US staying indefinitely in order to fight majority Arab population refusing Kurdish overlords — and call jt fighting ISIS. With only Israel in favor of such plan — US is risking degradation of the relationships with the entire region. And Turkey was ready and still is — if more sidetracking occurs. To create an entity of oppressed majority Arabs ruled by Kurdish minority may be appealing to Israel, but in today’s reality US may not find it in its own interest.
Israel keeps on bombing warehouses next to airport, praying and hoping for Syrian air defence to shoot a civilian airplane. Syria is only defending against musdikes, leaving Israeli planes alone. This is quite a desperate provocation — but without getting any reaction. It is because as a distraction — it is left aline to be dealt with later.
The mess is actually dangerous. The entire anti-Iran narrative is crumbling, and Israel is looking for any possible weaknesses in the region to exploit. The latest attempt is to try making Turkey the danger to Arab world. Sunni Shia split is being dealt with and will gradually become sideshow. So, what remains is playing kn Arabs vs. non Arabs, like Turkey and Iran.
I just cannot see it working anymore, as US does not like Arab nationalism any more then Iranian kr Turkish or Russian.
History 101. Thank you.
The Syrian Observatory is.
The most obvious ploy now will be to bloody the U.S. as they leave, and, the fewer troops that are there, the more vulnerable they are as they can’t cover each other as well.
It takes time for US troops to be replaced by CIA/Mossad contractors. Erik Prince is working as fast as he can.
Yep! Erik Prince was on FOX last night giving his opinions.
If the pull out is on a basis of one soldier a day, it will take 2000 days or more than five years to finish the job. Meanwhile they will bomb the country to smithereens and plenty of orders for more bombs, misiles and what have you, and work for the “defence” industry.
Finally.
But also the most dangerous part; the most obvious ploy will be to attack U.S. troops to force them to remain.
A little ambiguity in the time frame helps, but they should withdraw quickly and in force.
Or stage yet another “false flag attack” so the Deep State can pressure Trump into keeping them there.
We don’t know how many are REALLY there, or pretty much where any of our troops REALLY are. They could pull 2000 out and still have 10,000 there (or paid mercenaries, etc.). The gesture is certainly nice, but truly no way to verify and no reason to trust.
True, there is little reporting on what the US has done there either. Withdrawal is a great word to hear for a change, but we should hope for a US end of hostilities.
next get out of Afghanistan