Negotiations between the Syrian government and the Kurdish YPG are ongoing, with a focus on how they will secure the autonomous Rojava region after the US completes their announced pullout.
With Turkey vowing to invade the region and wipe out the YPG, the Syrian
Army has already positioned some fighters around the outskirts of
Manbij. The expectation seems to be that this will end with a deal
finalizing Rojava’s autonomous status and Syria’s obligations to help
defend it.
YPG commanders are saying they expect this as well, saying that they’ve
always considered Rojava to be part of Syria and have always believed
that making a deal with the Assad government was inevitable.
This was something the US tended to ignore, as they preferred to
position the Kurds, and the YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces, as
“rebels.” In reality, they have always been clear that their end-game
was negotiating permanent autonomy, and not outright independence.
“Post-US operations”
Believe it when it happens.
Apparently I’m the only American who’s actually read Abdullah Ocalan’s work. The keystone of Democratic Confederalism has always been liberation through peaceful autonomous co-existence within existing states. Think Proudhon meets Fanon. I just hope Assad respects the arrangement.
I am puzzled by this text. It is referring to a Lebanese article that covering Kurdish-Surian negotiations. There was no mention of securing Kurdish Rojava in that tekst. The only reference to Kurdish status in the article is nentioning Kurdish autonomy within Syrian state. What is Rojava? Taking aside the historical neanings and stickung strictly to the concept advanced by US and its ally, YPG — it is a vast territory, one third of Syria, that is under US air control. This line was created since Russia statred patrolling tge skies, to make it clear who operates over certain terriitory. While early on US violated the deal by striking HTS enemies, then Free Syrian Army in Idlib, it was not done since. This territory — in the name of fighting ISIS was managed by YPG military councils and local givernment Arabs, sworn (read, coerced) to run local affairs. They cannot make independent decisions. US intended this “Rojava” fot Kurds, even though they practically have no population in most of US controlled region. It was to create a client state, dependent in perpetuity in US, an application of Israel concept of ruling over, abusing and eventually resettling Kurdish population all iver the region. SDF is simply put YPG military command and their appointed Arab local governent. Rebelliond over the numerically disadvantaged Kutds were only stopped by US oeriodic blmbing. And it is a real rubbish — that they did not intend to have state. What about the female president, and their constitution?
Syrian forces can much easier secure non-Kurdish regions of US held areas, Turkey as well, as it has already secured Kurdish populated one in Afrin. It is inconcievable that a few hundred (if that) YPG fighters would be able to remain in Arab populated, and to them HOSTILE areas. Syrian government must disarm Kurds — or US should take large wespons. YPG furure now lies with Damascus as YPG is not popular with Kurds. Few losers are. Soecially those that had no fallback position.
Should YPG insists on territorial concessions from Damascus, outside of their Kobane region, there would be no other alternative — Turkey will have to defeat YPG as it did in Afrin. Meaning forcing them to withdraw from far flung regions to defend Kobane. And they will eventually liose. No Arab country supports the idea of Kurdish state hugging Iraqi and Turkey border, litterally separating Levant from Arab world. Kerping Turkey, rump Syria and Lebanon isolated in Mediterranean region, and the rest of Arab world ibetween Persian Gulf and Red Sea — both divided and limited by permanent US military presence. Turkey will not allow it, Iraq and Syria are fighting against it, and it lioks like Gulf states came out against it. Bahrein and UAE would not have reopened their embassies in Damascus without Saudi approval. It us especially important for Bahrein that came vocally in the defense of Syrian government. Fireign minister said that Bahrein supports legitimate governments even if they do not always agree, and does not support those who are trying to take governments down by force.
A clear message to British/US supported rebels in Idlib and Kurdish separatists. And an olive branch to its majority Shia population. Now, Iran is no longer the one and only narrative — it is OK for population that admires Assad to talk positively about Syria.
Kurds and US are still liooking at tactical advantages, how to give Kurds autonomy over areas larger then their pipulation centers. Thus, YPG. is still not serious about negotiations with Damascus. It cannot form its own position for as ling as US is being ambvivalent. This may be the reason for the spate of embassy openings and talk of reconstruction. It is telling Kurds and US to move on.
As for Manbij, the propaganda that Syrian Army entered the city and will defend Kurds from Turkey is laughable. Works only on those that have no hustorical knowledge of the conflict.
More then a year ago YPG withdrew from Manbij countryside and some suburbs and turned it over to Syrian forces. This was to prevent Turkey after Al-Bab victory to have a shot at Manbij. Then a week ago — YPG fighters (about 400, reportedly) vacated suburb adjacent to Surian army. Technically, and symbolically they moved into Manbij. But US forces are still there, and nothing is solved.
And it will not be easy to solve the problem. After ISIS withdrew, Kurds committed ethnic cleansing — many better off Arabs and Turkmen were kicked out of their homes, Many Arabs were scared after some reported attricities commutted by Kurds — wherher or not true — that they fled the city. How to solve the problem withiut llocal Arabs taking revenge upon other city native Kurds? Weak and unprotected akways suffer.
This will take more twists and turns.
But Syrian government is NOT negotiating away its territory to Kurdish Royava, nor will it allow any armed Kurd autonomy. If Russians and Damascus fail to negotiate a deal as was the case in Afrin — there is always Turkey. Turkey would be more then happy to resolve the issue without offensive.