Last month’s announced US withdrawal from Syria took many nations by
surprise. The subsequent disavowal of any and all timelines are only
adding more questions. Americans may not be getting a lot of answers,
but US allies across the Middle East are likely to get some form of reassurance.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton
will both be heading for the Middle East over the next several days,
with Bolton making the rounds in Israel and Turkey, and Pompeo visiting
much of the GCC.
Broadly these two are meant to be reassuring nations that the US will
remain heavily engaged in the region, and trying to explain how the US
stay in Syria is not “indefinite” when there is no definite timetable
for it.
Pompeo is also said to be discussing the possibility of sending GCC troops into Syria
as an alternative to having US troops there. That probably won’t sit
well with Turkey, which has already stated its desire to invade those
areas where US troops are embedded with the Kurds. It may, however,
please Israel, as they are keen to keep fighters hostile toward Iran
inside Syria.
US officials also suggested that Pompeo would address the murder of
Jamal Khashoggi while in Saudi Arabia, addressing the lack of
credibility of the Saudi narrative. If past administration discussions
with the Saudis on this matter are any indication, this will largely
involve brain-storming ways to ensure the Saudi Crown Prince isn’t
officially blamed.
I’ve been saying the US will replace those 2,000 with contractors. As we see in the Yemen war, most of the GCC troops are in fact contractors. The high end forces like fighter squadrons use Western maintenance men. The low end forces like infantry in Yemen have recruited in Sudan’s Darfur, often getting Janjaweed killers as leaders of child soldiers. By these examples, GCC troops are pretty much what I predicted. They too could hire Blackwater, if they wanted to spend more money than they do on Sudanese children fighting in Yemen.
they can die if they want to. can’t stop stupid.
If there were any doubts left that the US is an ailing corrupt, infighting regime in total disarray, this tour of Ziocon “reassurance” will certainly confirm it and bring local governments to the only point of stability, order and steadfastness there is, Russia and her local allies.
You nailed it, thanks.
The scene will probably be that of Bolton patting Bibi’s right hand while Pompeo pats his left hand and both of them crooning “Don’t worry, Boobi,
Uncle Sam will soon bomb those nasty Iranians for you! Plus our tech guys will see that the election goes your way.”
The scene will end with them reassuring him that the criminal investigations into his graft stop, and the welfare check we send them gets even bigger next year.
The only formal ally (by formal alliance) is Turkey. We have no other formal alliances in the Middle East and hopefully we never will.
Does it really matter? Would we have bombed more and caused more chaos if we have had more formal allies all along?
Probably not – but they aren’t going to reassure allies, in the sense that we have treaties with them.
Ummm, yes? At one point even Canada was bombing the ME using Kurds as a pretext. Its just that Canada, like every other Western country, can’t afford the armed forces they have let alone afford fight a war with them.
Alliances are meant to entangle kinetically. Its just that most ME countries realize its difficult to beggar their neighbors into a battlefield while avoiding becoming one themselves. The GCC is all but Arab NATO, lacking only the U.S. as an official member to carry the load as the U.S. does for EU NATO.
MbS is an outlier. Saudi Arabia’s previous rulers never intended for their Carter-era alliance with the U.S. to go kinetic with them leading, and the passing sting of Yemeni missiles is already too much for the Saudi population.
My point, to Ken, was that we bombed the s**t out of the region with no “formal” allies(other than Turkey) so I find it hard to believe we could have bombed anymore if we did have formal allies.
A formal alliance with Israel could be awfully bomby, but I get what you mean.
Arms-length alliances in the ME allow the U.S. to avoid being directly entangled in any wars not of her choosing.
When the U.S. does jump in, there’s little holding back.
My imagination on how many bombs the U.S. government can drop given the right pretext runs with pragmatic and humanitarian checks turned off, including any subconscious defaults to pragmatism and humanitarianism that can be turned off.
Great article; the little ‘claw thingies’ were in all the right places.
Israel would be the entity that needs reassurance, though. Turkey would be more than happy to take over from the U.S..
Back in 2012 a Reuters columnist gave 20 reasons for not attacking Iran; Israel’s possession of nukes and negative implications for the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was one of them. Its an interesting perspective, although it does not seem to account for Lebanon.
https://www.reuters. com/article/us-column-twenty-reasons-iran-idUSBRE87M10I20120823
Israel cannot itself do very much, conveniently because it possesses nukes, but also because Israel is casualty-shy and Israeli economic infrastructure is in the line of fire. A surrogate power is needed, and that for now is only the U.S.. The Israelis appear to be working on an China angle, though.
https://www.haaretz. com/us-news/.premium-israel-is-giving-china-the-keys-to-its-largest-port-and-the-u-s-navy-may-abandon-israel-1.6470527
That China angle is still long term. As the largest conventional power and in-theatre, Turkey is the natural go-to for local interventions, except for Turkish independence from both the U.S. and Israel.
Please Saudis, tell us some lies that we can pretend to believe.
That bloomberg story was crazy on about 5 different levels, especially this one:
“Turkey also wants the U.S. to collect American weapons supplied to the
Kurds, though it’s not clear Bolton would make such a commitment.”
US officials already made that commitment: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-usa/u-s-will-take-weapons-from-kurds-after-islamic-state-defeat-turkey-idUSKBN19D10J
Hillary Clinton started this mess and now 7 years later and with 300,000 dead it seems to have no resolution.
Maybe it is time to stop the Regime Change with surrogate armies routine.
Not while there’s a penny of fiat warbucks to be wrung from the U.S. treasury.
In other words, the Gruesome Twosome on a desert fellatio campaign to reassure the folks who gave us 9/11 that they will be provided with endless opportunities to do it again. MAGA?
Pompass and Bolton must be very reassuring to anyone.
Revoke their passports and leave them there.