Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi says that Iraq is “considering all
the options” for securing their border with Syria when US troops
withdraw from eastern Syria. This includes the possibility of Iraqi ground troops entering Syria.
With large numbers of ISIS remnants in the deserts of eastern Syria and
western Iraq, the Iraqi government has been scrambling for months to
shore up defenses in the border region, fearing ISIS could reassert
itself.
Though this hasn’t happened, the announced US pullout seems to have
taken Iraq by surprise. While Turkey apparently has already decided to
replace the US in Syria, Iraq may not favor that given their own
problems with Turkey in recent years.
It’s not clear how serious this possibility is. Iraqi troops might be
favored by the Syrian government over the alternatives. The Iraqi
military is not in the best of condition after its own protracted ISIS
war, however, and it’s not clear they’d be up for sustaining a foreign
deployment.
It all remains to be seen — it is not at all out of the possible. We talk of problems between countries, as if we actually know what it all means. After a while, if we listen carefully, we can discern when the conflict is real and when it is nothing more than a message to a particular audience. Iraq — same as Syria — is sensitive to feelings of its Kurdish population. And even if Kurdish leaders participated in foreign intrigues, working against their own country, particularly during its difficult times — no government can callously allow foreign country to threaten them. Iraq and Syria are, however, very different. In Iraq, the traditional Peshmerga was NOT allued with Turkush PKK. The reason being the source of funding. Peshmerga was carefull not to be used by Western powers during occupation of Iraq. PKK, however, has been under Western funding since Turkey became NATO member. Kurds were the threatening/ballancing force to keep Turkey malleable. But ever since Peshmerga became reluctant to accept Israeli advisors, and agitate for independence, PKK migrated into Iraq. And PKK started recruiting younger and impatient — causing a great danger of divisions. Hope we remember that Peshmerga keader Barzani visited Erdogan several times, as they shared the concern over PKK funding and spread into Iraq. Sure enough — when ISIS showed up in all of its headchopping glory, and Iraqi army was thoroughly misinformed about ISIS movements — Turkey sent army into Iraq and set up base. US forces were sent in in the basis of agreement with Iraq, and stage was set. ISIS took strategic cities, and transpirtation routes., US.started to work with Kurds, using same pattern as Syria. The idea was for Kurds to take over places held by ISIS, and establish large territory under its control. The carefully laid plans off muce and men … applies.
First Iraq established intelligence sharing center with Russia and Iran in Baghdad. Iraq no linger accepted US recommendations in military actions. Furst divergence was in Faludja — US generals recommended leaving it alone and go on Mosul. Iraq refused, eliminated IISIS cells that were responsible for large bombings in Baghdad. Following that, Iraqi Army had also, against US advice, taken under its command Shia militias. Iraq warned Turkey at that time that it did not want its involvement — message that Kurds were assured of Baghdad protection. It worked, because Peshmerga, Iraq and Turkey understood what will folllow. Predictably, US used Kurds to liberate Kirkuk (oil) and Sinjar (crossroads to Syria) — but then allowed ONLY PKK forces to enter and occupy.
Barzani was very critical of that. But to prevent PKK from getting stronger, Barzani held referendum on indeoendence — forcing US to be loyal to Iraq and condemned it. This brought about victory for Barzani — and reaction from Baghdad m. Baghdad went after PKK jn Kurkuk, and Sinjar. Peshmerga did not help, and PKK lost. This insured return of control over Kurdish area, birders, airports, etc. Baghdad eventually defeated ISIS on the ground, and foreign influence in Kurdish area was gone. This dies not preclude PKK infiltration. Turkey still has a base in Iraq.
YPG, PKK outfit in Syria, got rid of all its opponents ahead of time — some killed, some exiled. This is to prevent Iraqi Peshmerga situation.
But with so many Arab and Turkmen polulation displaced by US, and disillusioned rebels/terrorists that lost their sponsors, and are eager to get under someone’s protection, and cleanse their past. So, US found itself with weak hand — and without a full scale occupation, and confrontation with Russia and Turkey, Syria mission is at dead end.
Clearly, Israel is not convinced. But there are NO suporters of US stay in Syria in the ENTIRE Arab world, including Gulf states. Something had to give.