There was a time, early in the Syrian War, when the US was heavily backing large numbers of rebel groups. Most of that aid has been frozen, and those rebels largely defeated. Yet those rebels aren’t gone, they’re just looking for new paymasters.
And they’ve been finding them. Lebanese Shi’ite militia Hezbollah has been hiring former US rebels by the thousands. Told the US was not going to pay them anymore, they were advised to see what the Syrian government’s allies were offering. At $250 a month from Hezbollah, they’re paying better than the Syrian Army.
Not all the rebels were keen to abandon the fight and take a salary from a Syrian government or Iranian-align militia, however. For them, the recruitment is in the north, where the Turkish government has been recruiting heavily.
Even if Turkey is nominally a US ally, that doesn’t mean these rebels are on America’s side, however. Those rebels are being used chiefly to attack the US-backed Kurdish YPG in the country’s northeast. Perhaps even more likely than the new Hezbollah hires, Turkey’s militias are more likely to get in immediate, direct conflict with the US.
Allegiances in war are complex, based open what best serves the participants’ interests. This applies in Syria as anywhere else and it is consistent historically. The pattern of history is clear. Power (manifested as interest) has been present in every conflict throughout history – no exception. It is the underlying motivation for war. Other cultural factors might change, but not power.
It is the one thing we will destroy ourselves for, as well as everyone else. When core interests are threatened and existential threat looms nations go to war. There can be no compromise on these. As a result every civilization/nation eventually gets the war it is trying to avoid: utter defeat. This applies as much today as any other time in history. Leaders and decision-makers delude themselves, thinking they can avoid their fate – they can’t. If survival is threatened, there is no alternative to war, however destructive.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Excellent point. But here few words of caution. Survival of interests, existential threat — but whose interests and whose existential threat? One can say that in history with hindsight one can always see who wanted a war, and it is not always thise that threw the first punch that wanted the war. The key word is interests — but defining thise is tricky. A much attacked mivie just ooened. Hunter Killer. The best in my recent memory dealing with just these issues. It looks like a standard action flick with Americans out there in a familiar role. But then — a very different story is told. Story of common sense and humanity prevails. The story about Russians and Americans working together, in cooperation bourne out of common danger. Can you imagine Russians being beris just as Americans? However suspicious at first, the movie ends with Russian warship saving the day by firing its fabled missile defence at the incoming missiles fired at the Anerican submarine. In the medua today, even Russian dressing is suspect. This mivie was attacked by the hordes of Hollywood types, and the only reason lroducers saved themselves by asking Navy to help them with technical issues of submarine technoligy and command. But — by getting sudden support by even Mattis — all the Russia haters suddenly starting claiming that the movie is — Pentagon propaganda!! Almost unbelievable amount of venom! Kudos to Scittish producer and actor, Gerard Butler. He is being attacked from all sides. Ukraine just banned the movie!
I love your stuff..!!!!! What are choices for the news that keeps you so knowlegeable about the non state players and their shifting loyalties
I have always been an information garbage can. Information gathering is like archeolpogy. Collect various items that make sense at some point. The more information the better. I worked and lived in different countries which helps not getting attached to political truths.
Even before hired by Turkey, those militiamen were already in combat with the Kurds. They come from the al Qaeda-aligned forces the US used, and the Kurds were always fighting them.
Exactly. But once US gave support to Kurds by founding SDF — it was the end of delusion for thise militants.
We’re not actually talking about “rebels” here. Mercenaries is a better word. Most have nothing whatsoever to do with Syria. Probably the majority are Saudi criminals pressed into service rather than have their hands or heads chopped off. Not exactly your most reliable allies, USA.
In reality most mercenaries were recruited by ISIS and Nusra Front later HTS. In fact Nusra Front was a clever, mistly American and British run outfit. It would come with funding and infiltrate local grouos throughout Syria. Telling them what to do. Groups were their hostages. Ghis is where Russian reconciliation center came in. They iffered those local militias and leaders path to normalization by they keeping arms and converting to local police paud by Damascus. When that happened, Nusra mercenaries and anybody that feared prosecution, left for Idlib. The last such operation was Ghouta. Keep in mind why such groups were created in the first place. Not because of Assad, but because a climate of lawlessness was created with Army being unabke to orotect polulation against free lance criminals or mercenary groups. It was a firm of self defence, used by Nusra Front infiltrators — providing miney and military control. But as licals were not thrilled, Recinciliation orocess wirked quickly, allowing polulation to freely move again for jobs and trade. Russian MP provided external security.
I gotta ask Bianca, you write knowledgeably, why is your spelling always so horrid ?
Yes, mercenaries with no political affiliation is my guess too. The US is well known for paying guys that disappear after they get paid, and equipped. Sell the goods, sign up somewhere else. Probably wasn’t as fun once the Russians came in. Who can forget the “Iraqi National Army”, who flew in after the fall of Baghdad, changed into civvies for their tear down Saddam’s statue photo op, then all disappeared after they got their bonus. Obama did not make a big investment in Syria, nominal in US war terms. Trump stated he shut it down, but actually, once the Russians started chasing em around, there wasn’t anyone to give the money to. Dark money tho, who can say ?
Good. News is finally catching up to reality. This has been going on since end of 2016. Turkey after coup in July 2016 ralidly changed geopolitics and approach to Syrian war. The first recruits were those along Turkey’s border, Free Syrian Army. FSA was abandoned by US — by now openly threatening Turkey by promoting Kurds. ISIS in Syria were nothing more but placeholders. There was a string of ISIS captured birder villages and tiwns aling the border and further inside, strategically giving depth to Kurds in areas where Kurds were a tiny minority. FSA saw the light, when US allowed ISIS to beat them in places like Al-Bab, an Arab town openly coveted by Kurds and US, as it is a transport corridor between Raqqa and the Westernmost Kurdish enclsve of Afrin. If they suceeded, the entire border area wiuld have been “freed” if ISIS by US supported Kurds, linking entire border area if Kyrds in both side of border while Arab and Turkmen population was ready to flee. Turkey finally took action after recryiting already broken FSA units, putting them under their control. So un the name of US lying about Manbij, Turkey went in to cut a corridor from Jarabulus down to Al-Bab,defeating ISIS aling the way. It was clear that ISIS was holding out goid, as they had superior intellugence about Turkish troups positioning and Turkey sucfered heavy losses. Russian and Turkish airforce combined intelligence and crushed ISIS. With Turkey taking Al Bab, and Syrian Army taking southwestern countryside, corridor preventing ISIS or Kurds from going West or joining with Afrin.
Later on, especially after June 2017 — a combination of US anti-ISIS drive, and the new Saudi ruler cutting of funds to militant Salafi groups — the combination of facts resulted in groups disintegratiing. White Helmets program tried to work within any beseiged area to create optjcs for Western media and politicians, such as Goutha, Idlib and before that Aleppo. But it lost its value after Goutha and the staged chemical attack exposed to the world to see. However, many groups that stopped receiving funds — especially from Saudis — looked for new patron. THEY NEED PATRON NOT ONLY FOR MONEY BUT TO BE OROTECTED FROM PRISECUTIIN AFTER THE WAR. Nkt just prosecution from government, but from people, their neighbors. They need to show that they are on the right side if the conflict, and claim credit. Turkey picked up largest groups, and none larger then Jaish Al Islam. All groups that join Turkey have uniforms created for Syrians under their control. Grouos cannot make their indeoendent decisions. They are also hoping for credit after war and Turkish protection in peace deal. And it us true, Turkey will not oay attention to US posts in the area. Will not attack them, instead bypass — as there are very few Kutds in Eastern part of Eulhrates valley. Recently, ISIS has been attackjng them, showing to Turks that THEY need to be negotiated with. Kurds were not defended by US, only sporadically HS attacks ISIS held places bombing mostly civilians. That is going over well, and locals including ISIS may fund cover by joining Turkey. The offensive is comming.
Idlub is controlled by Al-Qaeda brand HTS with White Helmets on the ready. But by nit being attacked — and not having smuggled supplies from Thrkish Kurds across Afrin — they are in no position to counterattack. And staging chemical attacks in the absence of being attacked is not convincing.
If we take all the groups Turkey appropriated, add to that populatiin that fled Kurdish or ISIS occupations — Turkey has source of new recruits. Thrkey knows that Kurds in Syria will have to suffer loss or accept Damascus rule. That would eliminate porous birder that allowed Turkish Kurds to be supported militarily by the West. Niw that Ieaq has sealed border in Kurdish areas, and Thrkey still maintains base in Iraq monitorjng PKK activities, Iran controls its birders, and only Syria remains as source of Western funds and arms for Turkish PKK. Turkish Syrian firces are now by far supperior to YS backed Kurds, as Arab supoirt fir SDF is non existent. What was there defected long time ago.
Soeaking of Hezbollah, they did good. They managed to prevent armed groups infiltrating Syrian refugee camps, and start Sunni vs Shia vs Christian confluct. This is why now, after decades of Christians suding with Sunni, this is no longer the case. Syria has changed Lebanon. They see Western intentions niw as seeking sectaruan conflict to aid Israel. Having lived through multiple attempts by Israel to occupy them — they now support Hezbollah. Quite a change in Lebanon. So even though Harriri was always pain in Lebanese back side by being against Hezbollah — when he was detained in Saudi Arabia, Hezbollah was the first to demand he be freed and did not accept his resignation, unless he comes as a free person to Beirut to resugn. Christian presudent seconded. So instead if provoking sectarian violence — it achieved a full oublic unity.
Another HUGE FIASCO by “Evil Clown MbS”… He seems to be his own worst enemy. If the Monarchy had a gram of sense, they would can this LOOSER pronto!!!
The Kashoggy cover up FIASCO is just beyond stupid. More like BRAIN DEAD.
NO….!!!!! You can’t keep mum and act as if nothing is wrong. Not in today”s media landscape…& CCTV coverage.
Even the inside of the Consulate seems to be reporting along with their Turkish local employees. Where did these Royal go to school, maybe Sesame Street with Oscar & Big Bird…
Does a “Bird Brain” come to mind..???