On Friday evening, Saudi Arabia started trickling out their official report on the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The report, as expected, was carefully worded to avoid implicating any royal family members, and in doing so are giving President Trump wiggle room to avoid any actions to punish them over it.
Trump had set out an expectation that he’d only punish the Saudis seriously if senior royal family members were found responsible. The Saudi reported arrested 18 people, and sacked a few people closely tied to the crown prince, without specifically blaming the prince.
President Trump, unsurprisingly, seems placated. His first statement following the announcement was that he considers killing the journalist “unacceptable,” but that he viewed the arrests as a “good first step” by the Saudis. He also added that he doesn’t want to threaten the arms deal.
With questions doubtless to come about the crown prince’s very real involvement in this plot, the Saudis are also trying to spin the king as checking his growing power. In reality, however, the king’s main official attack was to create a new ministerial group to “reform” the spy agency, and the crown prince has been placed in charge of that, so arguably his power has actually grown.
Show your smarmy self spanky.
This isn’t about Trump. Not everything is about Trump.
We were deep into trouble long before Trump, and this is unchanged. Obama was complicit in the Yemen war, and the Syrian war, and the Libyan war.
Nobody has been willing to face the problems of Saudis and Israelis abusing the US for their own narrow and unsustainable ends. Not Obama, certainly not Dubya, and not Clinton or the first Bush or Reagan. In fact the problems in the Obama Admin were holdovers from those earlier, not least Hillary herself.
The US is so deep into this now that the corrective must be done carefully to avoid blowing everything up ever worse. So far, the only one showing any caution is the usually reckless Trump.
Correct. However, President Trump and his government has the power to end our involvements in the wars in Yemen, Syria, and Libya. He has not ended these involvements but has increased them in the cases of Yemen and Syria. He has added new conflicts: Iran, China, Russia (by sending US troops into Eastern Europe). He has recklessly pulled us out of the Iran agreement. He is obviously not a peace-maker.
Trump is reacting like any president would. That doesn’t make it right but it does show that anyone thinking Trump would be any different was severely misguided, to say the least.
Trump is not showing any caution. He is recklessly supporting exporting wars to the Mid-East. His signature issue during the 2016 campaign was the wall on the Mexican border. Now it is the $110 billion arms sale to enable KSA to continue genocide in Yemen, civil war in Syria and to prepare for the big war with Iran. This is not caution.
Trump’s MAGA depends on spreading war, repression and terror throughout the world. He wants US allies and dependents to fight the wars with their own troops or hired mercenaries and to buy US arms and technology thereby recycling the spoils of war to the USA. MAGA means exporting war and collecting tribute from allies and enemies while holding US professional standing armed forces in reserve to deliver the final coup de force if the mercenary forces get bogged down. To Trump America First means America Uber Alles – America Supreme!
Trump is deliberately throwing away an incredible opportunity to end US support for the corrupt murderous parasitic theocratic 10th century KSA monarchy that dangles like a dead albatross from every American taxpayer’s neck. For a century the Anglo-American policy in the ME has been to support corrupt Arab monarchies that would suppress nationalistic aspirations of their people. Since the 1973 war the Zionists have also supported an ME ruled by despots rather than nationalists aligned with the Palestinian cause. A decade ago Wesley Clark revealed the seven countries on the USA hit list – Iran and six Arab countries, all ruled by anti-Zionist anti-monarchist nationalists. Trump is vigorously pursuing that strategy. His only modification is to force the US allies and dependents to bear the financial cost of hiring and training mercenaries as shock troops while building the US armed forces to back them up.
Our government’s support for the Zionists and the Arab monarchists are dragging the USA and the world into unending war and barbarism. Caution means finally having the courage to say enough!
His recklessness has a method. Korea is a good example. For as long as he suceeds in NOT starting another war — in spite of the fervent desire of both Republicans and Democrats — he would be a real genius. This Saudi mess us a mana from heaven. It will rattle Saudi-Israeli marriage of convenience, as Crown Prince emerged stronger, not a good sign. Means that Kingdom will not be meak in identifying their interests, and at times they will clash with Israel. Many times, in fact. Saudis will wiggle out of the Sunni leadership role — just watch this. There were signs before that Saudi Arabia wants to have a role of Vatican for Sunnis, but not be military and political power. Because the weight in Sunni world belongs to Egypt, Turkey, Sudan, Indonesia and Pakistan. And in Arab world in particular, it is Egypt. And US does not have too much influence in any one of them. Trump may get his wish — being able to moderate both Saudi and Israeli appetites in the end.
Is that how low the genius bar is ? Not attacking North Korea ? I guess every President except Truman was a genius.
One wonders whether President Trump is aware of the fact that MdS has radically changed and destabilized the governance of Saudi Arabia. He has scotched the “Royal family style” of governance and has replaced it with a one-man dictatorship. The histories of the world’s one-man dictatorships shows that they are greatly unstable. Sooner or later they are either overthrown, lose wars, or are peacefully replaced by a more representative form of governance.
MdS has not established a viable modern representative governance in Saudi Arabia. Tying our nation to a one-man dictatorship is at least unwise.
With regards to receiving military hardware from us, that can be done through Israel. Or perhaps through Jordan.
Doing unacceptable things through others does not make us blameless. I have a very different take on what has happened, and why. Before we can analyze anything, we have to know the facts. Saudi ruler, MbS is ruling with the approval of the highest council that decided to remove Criwn Prince Nayaf and his whole team, and create an unorthodox situation, where the Crown Prince is actually King’s son. To replace a Crown Prince is not a truvial matter. Go back to when Nayaf was appointed, and it was clear that evrn though there were other likely candidates, US was lobbying for Nayaf. A very unlikely heir was in US at a college, when abruptly, without finishing studies he attended FBI training and later Scotland Yard training. He became the minister of the Interior, an equivalent of FBI and Homeland Security. The public opinion of him was that he was an American man. His rise to Crown Prince was not expected, and caused a lots of dissentiion. As soon as he was appointed Crown Prince, a de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, our neocin universe became obsessed with trying to promote him to become King as soon as possible, and then elect another maleable Crown Prince to have control over the country for a long time. King was described as being senile, oossibly with Alzheimers, ditting in medtings with a weird smile, etc. This was for a while all you learned about Saudi Arabia from press. But Kung had a son educated in Saudi Arabia, with no extortion potential. King put him in positions of defence and managing Araamco oil business. New Crown Prince did all that was asked of him. Like his predecessors he funded paramilitaries with religious cult missions, in Nayaf’s era, various Sunni cults devastating Iraq and Syria. ISIS included. But he was willing to take on a genocidal mission — to subjugate ir exterminate North Yemen’s Shia population, and secure Saudi control of Bab Al Mandeb. He was also persuaded that Qatar’s daliance with Iran was not to be tolerated, and Qstar was given conditions of surrender. From the oerspective of many Saudis these were disasters. ISIS attrocities were associated with Saudi Wahhabism, and money. Yemen war was to give Bab Al Mandeb to US, with US demanding war continues at all costs. Qatar was a catastrophic overreach — with Turkey providing military base, and Iran all the goods to undercut Saudi blockade. At that time — Saudi establishment reacted. Criwn Prince Nayaf was remived, and the Council appointed King’s son MbS. With the agreement, that Crown Prince cannot appoint his son, ince he becomes the King. Saudi Arabia is not a hereditary dynasty and succession us a matter of tribal consensus. There is no dictatorship there, as the Succession Council is the place where major policy decisions are made, and King is the powerbroker. Criwn Prince can negotiate through King, but cannot change iverall policy direction. Remember how Trump cheered and took credit for calling Qatar the sponsor of terrorism. Once the whole thing backfired, Trump used Secretary of State to try to patch things up. But once Nayaf was ousted, Egypt became powerbroker and in a conference in Cairo all the ultimatums to Qatar were changed to “priniples”. Crisis averted. Saudis are not alliwed to back out of Yemen war, as US is stepping in anytime there is acdanger of Saudi wobble. And even though the bew ruler went against Wahhabi establushment in irder to pull support from Sunni cults, Crown Prince is still called erratic, I would say that the more he tries to change the course if politics, the mire ge was willified. Trump has another approach — oraise him, get their money. In fact the more liberal laws he introduced, the more criticism came out of Western soonsored NGOs, activists ir journalusts. Saudi Arabia tried to send a nessage by striking at Canada for criticizing Saudi human rights. Took its students back, cut import of Canadian wheat. But the message was ignored. Saudis were not obedient enough on several fronts — and even Trump got bold, telling cheering crowd that Saudi Kingdom cannot survive two serks wuthout US protection. This was the last straw and The bew message was hard to ignore. Making sure Turkey has evidence, Jeff Bezos employee, US permanent resident, urging Saudi youth to fight for freedom — was kilked in a brazen act of “in your face” behaviour. Quickly, Trump reverted to “lets do business and be friends”, Israel supporters in Congress outraged at the gall of the Saudis to drag US publicly into the Middle East mud, were all indignant trying to maintain high moral ground on the groundhog mound.
The outcome, Saudis will “investigate” the killing, give comical explanation, and then proceed to oust the remaining Nayaf voices in both Yemen and Qatar problems. Advisirs remived, even though their portfolios have nothing to do with the special ops mission to Turkey. Then King requested Criwn Prince reorganuze intelligence agency. Looks like all the things NbS wanted to do, but needed an excuse.
What will happen next? Many in pro-Israeli camp will be very unhappy. Saudi establushment, not jjust Crown Prince cannot be trusted. As they continue complaining — Saudis will have more leverage in complaining about US continuing to “politicize” the issue. And it will probably play both sides of fence — making anti-Iranian sounds, but knowing that without ending Yemen war and standiff with Qatar, country is being drained politically and financially. Neither Saudis nor Russia want oil to go too high, so some goodied to Trump, if he continues the course.
But trade with China may switch to gold yuan, undermining dollar. Without Gulf states and Egypt behind, Saudis will not make any moves against Iran. I cannot see anyone in the region acting as a provocatior to force Saudis in. Without Iraq, any military option against Iran is not feasible. Sanctions will only spead up Iran’s integration into its Eurasian landmass. Sanctions were never fully lifted. US is slowly learning the art of the deal which dies not require trading partners to be “exclusive” property. Case in question — India. India is not asked to cancel purchase of Russian defence S-400 systems. In trade, China us not unhappy to see higher share if Korean trade go to India, as it means only a fraction of its overall volume of business with South Korea. This is not a “win” for us. I expect Saudi Arabia to mive mire in thus multipolar direction, as its dependence in US in world affairs resulted in US president calling the country its protectorate. I would not call it the last straw, but a gift. A convenient pretext for a more rapid policy change.
Well, I sure find Bianca’s comment quite a lot to take on board. My first reaction to MbS elevation to Crown Prince was all negative, largely due to having the perception that HE was the guy who pushed the war on Yemen, or something like the progenitor of that war. Around that time I read a comment by Bianca that changed my negative thinking MbS vs Prince Nayaf. Soon thereafter MbS did or said something which shifted my opinion back to the previous to Biaca”s comment. In fact whatever happened that brought my bad attitude back was so compelling that I started referring to him as The Clown Prince. My attitude is not fixed or stuck, but changes with what I perceive as what he does & says. Although Bianca words make me reappraise my negative take, this Kashoggi snuff is so aggregious that he would have to stop the Yemen war cold in its tracks to regain any good attitude from me, some divine miracle aside. And what about him & his pal Kushner and their extortionst plot to starve out & oust the Palestinians from where they have been living for two millenia or so?
How does this this play into the MbS fiasco proclivity…..????? It seems to me that Trump is being penny wise and a pound putz. He was going to stop all the involvement that costs trillions & he talk about a hundred million like it’s money… As Bill Clinton would have said, more & more Trump’s talk sounds like Boob Bait for the Bubbas… What say YOU….???????
Beware of clowns. They are rarely what they appear.
I tend to watch for game changers, not the daily chatter. It is more then obvious to anyone paying attention to politicians that they say things always with a particular audience in mind. So, one day they will say one thing — pacifying one audience, another day skmething else, putting somebody else at ease. Say one thing, think another and do something entirely different.
Back to Crown Prince and the genesis of his coming to power. Many people were unhappy with Nayaf, but he had American support, and the elite around him had American support as well. King and those in another camp, placed MbS in two positions where he could be fully informed of Nayaf’s moves. So, he was appointed Minister of Defence as well as the gead of Aramco. It is important to know that in Saudi Arabia ministers only execute orders by Crown Prince — there is no policy challenge. The only thing ministers can do is to go to their own clan to have somebody advising King take matter into consideration. King’s son clearly has an advantage. Nayaf was feared because he ran all internal security and internal spooks. This is why his powers were immense.
It was the top decision naking body, The Council on Succession, that made the extraordinary decision to remove Nayaf . Keep in mind that the body is made if all major clans, and they negotiate among themselves, with King’s input. Once policies are hashed out, they are binding on Crown Prince. He has wide range of options to execute, but his ministers are loyal without questioning. The Council was unhappy with Nayaf not following policies. When removed from power, Nataf was removed from all other functions.
There was a shock of immense proportions following Nataf’s dismissal. It is always important who is saying what, to understand which way thus will go. All neocon land was very unhappy. Very critical from the start, blaming MbS for all the evils in Saudi Arabia, including status if women. They were piling on criticism knowing full well that he was not responsible. That led me to ask question: who is so upset by the change and why? I could see who. In a matter of months, some especially in Congress acquired a more conciliatory tine, as Saudi Kingdom had to stay tightly aligned with US and Israel goals. Others remained over the top critics. However, he and King started from day one to reposition Kingdom’s investments. Both China and Russia were approached. Also, to demonstrate neocon lies, the King went to a one week visit to Russia, cutting dozens of deals, establishing a joint energy research fund, and getting into joint exploration. He certainly was not senile nor suffered from Alzheimers. Agreements on shared intelligence,, defence and the beginning of Syria dialogue. None of that set well.
Remember Ritz Carlton roundup? It was not all about money, it was sorting out the loyalties. Majority wealthy people are loyal to powers in place, and transition is normally asdiciated with the desth of a ruler. In this case it was a remowal, thus a necessity to examine the impact. With the exception of few that were too close to Nayaf, others saw the light quickly.
One more item. Typically Soros style (there are ither sources as well) consists of “activists” that pound a target — a politician or a parry — mercilessly, even when they maje changes and deserve some praise. The technique is effective as the actual object is not only their professed misdion, but to keep the person associated with negativity daily. Example, women’s rights. In spite of major changes made, activists job us to continue the negativity. This us done around the globe, so why did Saudi Arabia decide to take drastic steps to stop it? It litteraly broke relations with Canada, pulled students out if the country and stopped wheat trade, Yet, it did not register. Thus Kashoggi.
Saudi objective is definitely to restructure relationship, and to control the dripping of daily activists twitters.
What do I expect of restructuring? First, there may be a change in how China pays for oil. Gold yuan exchange is ready for higher volume. This may be gradual, but will happen. As fir Kushner? Just the case of kerping your friends close, and your enemies closer. Israel cannot afford to loose Saudis even as a fig leaf in Iran saga. And Trump cannot afford to lise Israel lobby that does not trust him in spite of daily confirmations of undying loyalty. Take the story in Oakestinian refugees. So, Trump cut into UNRWA budget, and the descendants of Palestinians kucked out are no lionger refugees. Now, ask yourself a question. What are the chances of these people to return to Israel? I would say none. But then, what is the meaning of cutting off funds? The real implication to all states with UNRWA population is as follows. All Palestinians become cutizens, no more refugee status. For places like Syria, no problem, as Palestinians support Damascus. For Lebanon, even though Sunni, Palestinians support Shia pipulation and Hezbollah. In Lebanon today even Christians and Druze changed loyalty after Syrian tragedy. But the biggest prkblem us Jordan. Over FIFTY PERCENT OF POPULATION ARE PALESTINIANS. Without refugee status, Palestinians sill make Jordan the first Palestinian country, with not good consequences to US standing in that country. Israel may liked the idea of disinheriting Palestinians, but will not like the idea if Jordan becoming Palestinian. Same is true of Gaza. There are no Usraelis there and it is just a matter of time when UN will have no authority there, and sooner or later there will be statehood claims. Israel may covet West Bank, but even if it remives all Palestinians it will be surrounded by THREE states, and Gaza, with either majority Palestinian population or seizable minorities — all with heightened anti-Israel mood then before Syrian crisis.
As for Yenen — keep in mind this is American war. It is a war for the control of Bab Al Mandeb. It started with pirates off Somalia coast that brought US naval assets. Then many other countries. Niw we have Chinese Naval base in Djibouti. Turkey will have one in Sudan on the Red Sea. Yemen is the key to control. Saudi Arabia wants to have guarantees of passage, as it could kill their economy that us today Asia dependent. I have no udea hiw will that end. Suez crisis ended British empire. Will Bab Al Mandeb be Anerucan misadventure? Iran snd Straights of Hormuz beckons — but until this one lingers, who knows. Bab Al Mandeb, the Straights (Door) of Tears. Used to work in Yenen many moons ago.
The disgusting Saudi regime needs to be taken out when the iron is hot.. Saudis funding over $100 Billion+ Wahabi mosques all across the Western world. It’s coming here with their hundreds of billions to finance it, and with their vast wealth the West can be their playground. We have to stop them before it is too late and not cow-tow to cowards like Donald Trump and his family who only care about money.
What you observe is a manifestation of always happening slow ebb-and-flood developments of history. There was once a time when Christianity extended far Eastward into Asia. It was Islam which became the counter-force of the much more developed East against the much more primitive West. The last real war in that ebb-and-flood was fought in Turkey after WW1. That was won by Kemal Ataturk hence Istanbul remained in Turkey.
The Saudi’s are now feeding the Muslim rebound against the Christian West which had stupidly carved up the Ottoman Empire into Christian-ruled semi-states.
This can only end if all parties agree that this dangerous religious ebb-and-flood must come to an end. Given the persistent claims of superiority by Christianity and Islam I am very pessimistic.
It will be terminated by global warming because that is still less believed than Allah and the Christian deities.
This dynamics is called politics. Religion has been used as a motivation for masses to fight and die. But wherever you look in history you eill see that SOMEBODY always wanted war, as that somebody believed they can win and benefit from the plunder. In modern era causes were built more around moral superiority, bearing the burden of improving the lives of primitive people in Africa, Asia ir Latin America. At times missionaries were part of the munificence if superiors over infreriors. At other times, Napoleon marched in the name of enlightenment — bringing ideals of equality and liberty to the European empires by the point of the sword. Hitler made hus nation cry over the attricoties that savage Czechs perpertated over Germans, and thus it was imperative to take chunk of that country. Peace in our time — was the sigh of releif that Germans just wanted to march to the East to get their elbow room. Today, you want to punish people who will not do as told, we prop up some minorities to cry over their fate while pounding the offender. Islamic cults were created to punish civilians, to scare them and abuse them — so the civilians themselves would stop supporting their governments. After US left Iraq due to the end of UN mandate, and uneillingness of Iraqi government to sign SOFA —ISIS was created to force Sunni population of Iraq to separate itself from Baghdad government. In a short tme major cities fell and most of Sunni countryside. Kurds were taking what was theirs and what was not. Iraqi forces were fed disasterously wrong intelligence and slaughtered by ISIS. The plan was simple — use Kurds to l”liberate” Sunnis from ISIS, and then impose Sunni tribal leadershiip to control this Sunniland and be against Shia. Kurds were to be rewarded by their own autonomy. ISIS was to be alliwed to mive into Syria, among millions of Iraqi refugees create a caliphate and wait till US mediates the Syrian conflict. Nothing went to plan. Kurds did help — but YS made a mistake by creating opposition to traditional Kurd ruler, Barzani, and favoring PKK with Turkish connections. As a result, Barzani challenged the US oroteges by announcing referendum, something US did not want — in order to control Baghdad. The referendum won, Iraqi troups mived jn, PKK was left to hang dry in Kurkuk, and Iraq took kver with ease Kurdish territory as Barzani supporters did not want to fight with PKK. Also, in Baghdad an jntelligence center opened, pulling tigether Russian, Iranian and Iraqi intellugence. Thus was why US objected Iraqi army go on Falujah first, nit on Mosul. If Iraq listened, it would have ISIS clise to Baghdad to carry out explosions. But it chose to eliminate ISIS from Falujah. But then ince Iraq sucessfully surrounded Mosul, all we heard was how horrible it was fir Shia militia to be involved, as Sunnis do not like it! It turned out Sunnis were glad for anyone to liberate them from ISIS terror rule. In our press ISIS was described as bad headchoppers. But their terror was much deeper. They took proples property, boys over eight were taken for training as fighters. Girls kidnapped for “marriage” with fighters. People starved. Thus ISIS Islamic cult did not exactly win over Sunnis with fear, as fear has only a limited emotional value. It turns into hate and disrespect of the perpetrators. They welcomed anyone to liberate them. And admired Shia for organizing into militia, helping army conquer ISIS. In Baghdad, Sunni tribal leaders were on board with government plan for post ISIS administration of Sunni areas. All these are not just natural ebb and flow of religious waves, but exploitation for political purpose. And even though it is always clear in history who started the wars or violence with expectation of gain — this does not mean that they win. Often the presumably superior side makes many mistakes. First mistake is counting on allies and alliances. They may crumble. Second, they underestimate the resistance. Third, they iverestimate their kwn superiority, weapons, ingenuity or character. All these crumble when an unjust war is fought and morale is lost. Leaders become arogant and inhumane, not sparing anything living including their own. European leadership on purpose imported millions of economic migrants and refugees fron both economic and armed war zones they created. Now, they can just enjoy the show as people get at each other’s throats. Bad religions? All want to be superior? Or bad people without nobility, humanity or maturity. Just want to win, whatever that means.
Just a word of caution. It was the whole succession of Saudi Kings that did it — especially the ousted Criwn Prince Najaf. And Europe ir US did nit complain, as they wanted diversity, that is reduce the percentage of population with a sense of self- governance and the sense of demanding accountability for policy failures. The best way to do this is by immigrating a large number if heterogeneous population, especially those of different races and incompatible religions, guarantiing thus that assimilation will not happen, and newcomers feeling outsiders for generations to come. This gives rulung classes the necessary divisions, fears and anymosity for sucessful manipulation. Even that is not enough — divisions are needed between nen and women, sexual irientation, yoyng and old, etc.
In fact, MbS has been the first ine to confront Wahhabi establushment, cutting funds for expansion — be that misques or various armed cults. In Syria — mist grouos were defunded and they transitioned to Turkey. Turkey now has large army of various Syrian armed groups, including those that Kurds expelled. This Army is larger then Kurd YPG. And eventually they will take on the remaining ISIS in US held territory. US is now in a predicament as ISIS needs money, food and weapons. US will get UN to bring supplues to Refugee camp in US territory — where these supplies will go to ISIS not to the people. But this cannot last long — ISIS without money results in kidnapping for ransom. Americans and Europeans have been just kudnapped, but no news here of the incident. Cutting if Saudi funds should have been celebrated, but just the opposite is happening. The more they balk, the more they are villified.
The brazen murder of a media personality is going to be the catalist of change. Of course this was done on purpose, done with Turkish government sensetionalism hard to cover up. Confession was negotiated with Saudis getting the better of it. Out go two incinvenuent advisors on Yemen and Qatar, and entire intellugence agency to be reshuffled in order to eliminate some oldtimers with questionable loyalty. Criwn Prince emerged stronger. He really got spanking when his dad ordered him to reorganize intelligence!
I am all for putting pressure as it will result in gradual decoupling of Saudi-Israeli interests, and reduce Israeli meddling in the neighborhood. This just may lower tensions.
Unfortunately, the American people are powerless and the Israeli-Saudi axis completely controls Washington. Also, Washington is full of nothing but traitors and cowards who care only about money and power, Trump being just one. If you think anything is going to come of this you’ll be disappointed.
Oh, come on. You can’t expect Trump to come down hard on the king when he’s already stroked his orb…
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At least the dissension in the “US Government” is letting people know that the wonderful allies and not Iran perhaps might be culpable in some way.
Of course, never would the murders every day of unarmed people by Israel’s “defense forces” be considered a reason to stop arming them as long as Adelson and others buy the US elections of nearly every candidate.