Speaking to his ruling AKP Party, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed that Turkey is preparing to deploy more military forces into northeastern Syria, to act against Kurdish YPG forces east of the Euphrates River.
Erdogan complained that the US was not taking actions previously agreed to against the YPG in that region, and said that Turkey was prepared to take “all necessary steps” themselves, saying it would be done for the “peace of our country but also for the people living in this region.”
These comments come just ahead of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Turkey, and likely are meant to set the tone for another round of negotiation. The US and Turkish Foreign Ministry have repeatedly sparred over the fate of parts of Syria under control of Kurdish forces.
These meetings have almost always ended with agreements to come up with a solution to the US-Turkey disagreement. These, however, are rarely followed up by any specific agreements, leading Turkey to condemn US inaction in cracking down on the Kurds in the ways they’d expected.
This was always in the cards. Kurds — or to be soecufic, YPG militants — had a golden opportunity to negotiate return to nirmalcy in Afrin. Russia mediated, and Syrian government conditions were reasonable. The objective was to let Syrian forces control the border to Turkey, demilitarization, and Syrian control of provincial finances, letting Kurds manage all local governments, and receive payments from Syrian government to subsidize local operations. YPG refused, because the money they made was from smuggling arms and other supplies to Idlib and beyond. PKK in Turkey is a transmission belt from northeast US controlled Kurd territory, aling the border to ofher parts of Syria. Turkey made a major advance ince it luberated Jarabulus from ISIS, and then continued to liberate Al Bab that US and Kurds coveted. The oroblem US and Kurds have is — no Kurdish population, or under 5% population in 90% of territory YS now controls east of Euphrates. And the Arab populatiin there is restive. This is why ISIS, being literally protected in Al-Tanf region periodically swoops on Arab population to kill and kidnap. This is a warning — you are not to openly support Assad, or your hostages are going to be killed. But majority is virulently against Kurd rule, and unless US plans to implement Israeli solution — givevKurds piwer to kill or expel Arabs, US occupation is going nowhere.
Why is it so hard to get — Syria, Turkey, Rusdia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and even Saudi Arabia — all do not wish to see another Kurdish Israel to be created by US and Western allies, and have another permanent agent of provocation in the Midfle East.
Turkey is vitally interested that this does not happen. Having called Afrin YPG bluff, and routed militants without much trouble — Turkey, Syria and Russia needed some semblance of control over Idlib, in order to pursue bigger problem. US and Israel’s determination to use Kurds and hkld Euphrares valley. Now that Turkey controls former militants funded by Saudi Arabia — including largest one, Jaish Al Islam, it has by now a large Syrian army that is made up of people who fought ISIS, and fought Kurds in Afrin, Jarabulus or Al -Bab. And niw thise that were expelled by Kurds from Manbij and other towns along northeastern Syria-Turkey border.
Having spent a long time negotiating with US on Kurdish control of towns and villages they DO NOT LIVE IN OR ARE A SMALL MINORITY and having gotten nowhere ever since Biden made lame promises — it is now ready to tackle northeast border. Turkey will not allow a quazi Kurdish state under US orotection to control its accsss to Iraq and Middle East. One way or another, the issue will be tackled. As Kurds are dragging their feet in negotiating with Damascus, it is clear that a status quo will remain, and Syria divided de facto. If Turkey takes border towns, Kurds will be vulnerable in their core region, Kobane. Unless US values this Kurdish toll booth so much that it is ready to fight its nominal NATO ally — it is hard to envision what US wants to accomplish in the region in the long. Israel may wish to continue its bellicosity towards the region, but US cannot. US needs viable states, commerce, energy. At present, thise that are so sure that Saudis and Israel are de facto allies — better rethink this. The dynamics underway is not supporting that view. Not at all. Saudi Arabia is in the process of burning bridges. It has already cut funding to anti-Assad groups, and the same have seanlessly transfered to Turkish control. Stage is being set to unwind many Saudi obligations towards reshaping Midfle East. US cutting funds to Palestinian refugees is an example. It was meant to make Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states oay for it. And it could have happened — except that money would not have purchased any influence in resolving Palestinian crisis. Thus — no deal. And ither deals are going sour. Trump is trying to steady the commercial side of relationship — but neicons are up in arms. In the name of righteous fury, they are sensing the danger of Saudi moves, and would prefer to strike at them, early and hard. Calling for regime change! That would fly well in Saudi kingdom. They may have their differences, but the house is united when it comes to external pressure. So it is good cop — Trump, vs bad cop, Congress and the flag bearing Neocon avant-garde. Just the beginning.
Turkey made a deal with Russia and Assad for Idlib province, and now has turned on the American proxy instead.
This is clear proof that the US lost that war.
For the US, it was foolish and pointless anyway. It served only crazies in the region, both Saudi and Israeli.