While Saudi officials are being very aggressive in threatening retaliation if any sanctions are imposed against them over journalist Jamal Khashoggi, there is also a scramble on to finalize and accept delivery of some US arms, which might well be their final shipment for awhile.
A growing number of Congressmen are expressing desire for some action against the Saudis, or at the very least the launching of an investigation under the Magnitsky Act on whether sanctions are warranted against the Saudis.
President Trump has been loathe to threaten the arms deal with the Saudis, and Trump Administration officials are complaining that Congress is getting ahead of itself in trying to get the ball rolling on some action.
The State Department and John Bolton are both complaining that there aren’t enough facts out yet to justify any action. This is likely intended to put off such action for the time being, but may ultimately force the administration’s hand, as there seems less and less doubt that Khashoggi met a bad end.
Who do these folks think they are? Israel?
Oh well. I’ll not be surprised if these Mafiosos come up with blaming Iran (and of course Putin) and sanction them even more for the Khassoggi murder/disappearance. Unless OF course, the Saudis make significant contributions to their campaign fund.
Saudi Arabia has poked US in the eye with
an act of brazen challenge, knowing nothing much can be done, but they can be “indignant” and retaliate.
It is true — no proof exists of his murder, but this is at the least an act of kidnapping. If we were to compare this to Skripals case, and the hysterics involved in expulsion of diplomats, not to mention that nobody was killed and that both father and daughter are kept hostage at present. But sanctions craze is still going on, and after another person was poisoned, a person that has no remote link to Russia, a story was fabricated all of a sudden of two Russians who visited Salisbury. And after whoever is dispensing the substance strikes again, there will be another story. With Saudi Arabia, we have situation where the provication is real and intended. They may produce him later unharmed, or not bother at all. Looking at Saudi media, all of it very controlled, they are chomping at the bits to start a trouble. They can reach out to Iran, get Russian base close to Israel, use Chinese gold yuan for oil payments, buy Russian weapons, etc. The bravado goes on and on.
It is hard to predict what will Congress do. It is clear that Saudi Arabia is not at all pissed off with Turkey for using the biggest megaphone to sensationalize this case. It almost looks like both of them are rather enjoying it. Are we being set up — set up to be the ones to kick off the rift in relationships? Let us remember how swiftly Saudi Arabia ditched relations with Canada after rather small amount of moralizing came out of Canada government. Looked like Saudis could not wait to ditch Canadian purchases, like grain. Of course, Russia is the new supplier of non-GMO wheat. Then, China is leaning on Saudi Arabia to accept gold yuan schema under Shanghai Oil stick market. Saudis know that they cannot afford to make their primary customer unhappy — US is no longer at the top. Saudis are now evaluating the situation of rise in oil prices — as it cannot untangle US energy policy. Why bother leaning on OPEC, when US should instead flood the market with its own reserves? Why is that not happening?
There are many mysteries, and Israel looms as a major factor. A rift with Saudi Arabia is the last thing it wants. Front against Iran would be non-existent. It is already so as no ofher Arab state is on board and capable to contribute. Saudis are the fig leaf, the symbol of Sunni hate of Shia. This narrative has already crumbled accross Muddle East, so keeping Saudis in the narrative is the key.
Congress may have to do a lots of talking but will not be able to do much. What is at stake is Yemen war, in which US is the key interested party, but wants to keep moral high ground. What happens if Saudis just cut a deal with North Yemen, take control of the South (most of Southern secessionists are supported from Saudi Arabian rich families who invested in South — used it as a tax haven). UAE are our proxies, but immensely weak ones. Its soldiers are mostly mercenaries. In that situation US would have to go into at least seizing Aden in irder to control Bab Al Mandeb. This Saudis will not like, and if Saudis seize Aden, and have loyalty of Hadhrami region — who will do our bidding to control the straights?
So, our Congress need to decide if controlling every strajght around the globe using proxies is worth that much to us? Imperial assumption is — if we do not control it, somebody else would. Not true at all. Majority of the global shipping interests would be more then happy to know the ordinary rules that apply to shipping under sovereign states rights, UNCLOS and international waters rights. It is simple, rules based, not controlled by any powers. We cannot decide what is really in our interest. Trump would just like to do business, but will have hard time steadying the ship. Saudis want trouble, begging for it, Congress must look like they are the beacon of demicracy while doing nothing to damage Usrael’s interests.
Congress may, just may misjudge. Used to being high and mighty, it may think that Saudis can be intimidated. They are not likely to see this as a bait — and even if they do, the instinct will lead them into thinking that some good old fashioned slapping is good for Saudis, to be reminded who has an upper hand. Time to prepare popcorn.