Secretary of State James Mattis made a surprise visit to Afghanistan on Friday, visiting Kabul with Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford, and meeting with President Ashraf Ghani.
The meeting was intended primarily to discuss the possibility of advancing a peace process with the Taliban. Mattis says reconciliation is now a “real possibility.” Gen. Dunford had just visited Pakistan, and is likely also bringing news of how that went to Ghani.
The unspoken story here is the increasingly untenable security situation in Afghanistan, with the Taliban gaining a growing amount of territory, and ISIS carrying out attacks in the capital city with virtual impunity.
With the parliament election a month away, the Ghani government is eager to make a show of at least relative security, which official US visits are great for. 17 years of US occupation in Afghanistan has often involved providing the illusion of security, despite how little credibility that has.
Most likely the security situation to be discussed is somewhat more than just the Taliban gains; the U.S. and Kabul may be being sidelined by a Eurasian solution.
“Taliban to travel to Russia for Afghanistan peace talks after 17 years of war: Talks follow wave of violence but also series of overtures from Afghan government”, South China Morning Post (SCMP. com) Wednesday, 22 August, 2018.
Article says the meeting in Moscow includes not only the Taliban, but ” a dozen groups including regional heavyweights China, Iran and Pakistan,…”
Note that although the U.S. and Kabul rejected attendance, the meetings are on anyway, and are described as ‘peace talks’.
The meetings started on September 4, just a few days ago.
It’s pretty hard to talk peace when you can’t get the aggressors and occupiers into the room, but not impossible to find ways to coax or force them to the table. Clearly the US is not prepared to go all in to win the war. The government we installed there can profit greatly from being in charge enough to get the bribes, but they will only be able to enjoy their loot if they survive long enough to spend it. And a permanent life under siege for those officials, with half of their countrymen itching to kill them or just assist their former government kill off their current one, is no way for anyone to live.
The top guys will move to Bern, Geneva, etc., etc. They have already stashed away plenty of US taxpayer $$$.
As Joao pointed out, the guys at the top have options. Some people enjoy the power trip so much, the danger is worth it.
Note also that a big neighbor of Afghanistan has not been invited.
Afghanistan has a border with Iran. Whereas it is very unlikely that an attack will be launched on Iran from Afghanistan because of the difficult terrain and supply problems (Afghanistan does not have a port city on an ocean) Afghanistan can be used as a haven for rockets, drones and fighter planes directed at Iran. That in turn requires good security.
Yes Afghanistan is important for being adjacent to Iran, but also in a larger sense for being the “keystone” to central Asia, important for the US “new silk road” policy which has been around for over twenty years despite Afghanistan’s lack of ocean frontage as you point out.
Iraq turned out great; let’s attack Iran. It’s only four times as big….
Given the Taliban’s recent successes, any “reconciliation” would be on their terms. So will Mattis surrender and call it reconciliation? He should.
And the sooner, the better. Gee, American intervention in the Middle East has been a wonderful success. I can’t wait for Uncle Sam’s triumph in Syria.
“6 more months and we are sure to turn things around!”
exclaimed for the 36th time.
Mattis made a “surprise visit” because he was too chicken s**t (or smart)to announce it in advance because Afghanistan STILL isn’t secure enough to do it any other way but as a surprise.