Hope springs eternal for Pentagon officials, with regards to any war the US is involved in. Everywhere and always they believe the war is going well and about to turn the corner, and over the past 17 years, that’s been the constant military stance on Afghanistan.
But the war is plainly going badly. With Trump Administration officials reporting they are heading toward a policy review, US intelligence officials are also increasingly frank with their own assessments on the war.
A number of intelligence officials are challenging the Pentagon’s insistence that things are fine, and the policy review is likely to include a new intelligence assessment for the administration. The military is scared to death of that assessment.
Trump has been inclined to be pessimistic about the Afghan War at any rate, what with the lack of visible progress on the ground. Intelligence officials will just underscore this view by echoing the endless array of metrics, which all point to the US losing ground in Afghanistan.
That has Pentagon officials doubling down on their own positivity, insisting that the possibility of peace talks proves things are heading in the right direction. They also say that 17 years into the war no one should’ve expected a big turnaround in just one year.
Yet the Pentagon is always predicting a turnaround just around the corner, and any outside assessment is liable to admit that’s as unrealistic now as it’s been for the past 17 years.
It’s going badly? REALLY? I’ll bet the one who figured that out is a mighty shiny penny- give that man a cee-gar.
Yeah, Jason nailed it. Long ago I had a website with a blog page devoted to “peace talks” in Afghanistan. What a waste of time that was.
Regarding a turnaround just around the corner let’s look at the record, most recent to earliest..
*Aug 27, 2018: LWJ: Resolute Support, NATO’s command in Afghanistan, has recommended that the Afghan military withdraw from more remote outposts in order to defend more populous areas. The Taliban, in turn, has leveraged remote areas under its control to attack more populated areas. Additionally, the withdrawal of Afghan forces from remote areas of the country has eroded Afghan’s confidence in the government’s ability to defend them from the Taliban.
*Aug 23, 2018: At a Pentagon press conference, General Nicholson again gave a Pollyannish assessment of the state of Afghanistan. He claimed the peace process is working and the Taliban’s offensive is failing. But: ” There has not been a significant change one way or the other with respect to population control. . .we’re in the process of implementing what I think is the right approach. . . yes, it is a bit of an impasse. But despite that, we’re seeing progress towards reconciliation.”
https://dod.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1609954/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-general-nicholson-via-teleconference-fr/
*Jun 19, 2018: LtGen Austin “Scott” Miller: The U.S. general nominated by President Trump to be the 17th commander of the war in Afghanistan told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that he wouldn’t speak about the war reaching a turning point “unless there is one.”
*Jun 19, 2018: Senator Elizabeth Warren: “We’ve supposedly turned the corner so many times that it seems now we’re going in circles.“
* May 23, 2018: Ron Paul: US Names 18th Afghan War Commander — Are We Turning The Corner Yet?
* Mar 23, 2018: Brigadier General Michael Fenzel, in charge of planning military operations: “I see us truly turning a corner. And I know this is a very – something very difficult to sell.”
*Jan 17, 2018 – drones are redeployed in Afghanistan. U.S. bases here are abuzz with activity. Numerous military officers used a phrase often repeated during this war: “We’re at a turning point.”
*Jan 31, 2018: BBC: Taliban fighters, whom US-led forces spent billions of dollars trying to defeat, are now openly active in 70% of Afghanistan, a BBC study has found. Months of research across the country shows that the Taliban now control or threaten much more territory than when foreign combat troops left in 2014.
*Jan 16, 2018: Government forces recaptured Marjah [where] Afghans had ousted the Taliban eight years ago in one of the largest operations of the war — one officials were confident then would mark a turning point.
*Dec 18, 2017: Czech Army Gen. Petr Pavel, chief of NATO policy and strategy: “There is a thread of branding every year as crucially important. 2018 will be different from others.”
*Nov 30, 2017: Duffelbag: Top US Commander in Afghanistan says we ‘have turned the corner’ in circular reasoning fight.
*Nov 28, 2017 – The top U.S. general in Afghanistan said Tuesday that coalition forces have “turned the corner” in the fight against the Taliban.
*Nov 27, 2017: USNews: “Victory or Failure in Afghanistan: 2018 Will Be the Deciding Year”
*Nov 20, 2017: General John Nicholson, citing counter-insurgency doctrine, said gaining 80 percent control of the country would represent a turning point in the 16-year-old conflict, which has become the longest U.S war. “This we believe is the critical mass necessary to drive the enemy to irrelevance, meaning they’re living in these remote outlying areas, or they reconcile, or they die.”
*Nov 10, 2017: Nicholson: “Yes, I think the conditions are set for success. [Afghan] President [Ashraf] Ghani has said he believes we are turning a corner, and I agree.”
*Oct 4, 2017 – Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, received a frustrated and sometimes angry reception during a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee …. Mattis then expanded on the Pentagon’s new strategy to “regionalize, realign, reinforce, reconcile and sustain” operations in Afghanistan. (R4+S)
*Aug 22, 2017: SecState Tillerson: “We believe we can turn the tide of what has been a losing battle over the last year-and-a-half or so.”
*Aug 22, 2017, General Votel, Central Command: “We’re turning a big ship here and there are challenges.”
* Aug 22, 2017: Former president Hamid Karzai dubbed the US stance on Pakistan in its new strategy as a “turning point.”
* Aug 21, 2017: WSJ: Putting forth his own strategy is a “turning point” for Trump because it means he takes ownership of the US involvement in the conflict
* May 10, 2017: Washington Post: “A soldier’s death and a possible turning point in long-running Afghan war”
*May 10, 2017: ChicagoTribune: “Mark De Alencar was the first American killed in combat in Afghanistan in over four months. Now his death could mark a new stage in America’s longest war.”
*Feb 9, 2017: McCain: “This new administration has the opportunity to turn the page and finally give our commanders the resources and authorities they need”
*May 22, 2016: MSN: The death of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mansour in an American drone strike may be a turning point for Taliban and their Pakistani Army patrons.
*Feb 2, 2016: Campbell: “Afghanistan is at an inflection point”
*Oct 5, 2015: Campbell: “Where they [ANA] were just a couple of years ago to where they are today is pretty astounding.”
*Feb 12, 2015: Campbell: “[Resolute Support] represents a significant paradigm shift.”
*Dec 29, 2014: Campbell: “What a change from the day that President Ghani took over.”
*Dec 28, 2014: Campbell: “we can see that Afghanistan and our Coalition are at a critical turning point.”
*Dec 28, 2014: Obama: “2014, therefore, is a pivotal year. Together with our allies and the Afghan government, we have agreed that this is the year we will conclude our combat mission in Afghanistan.”
*Dec 23, 2014: General Campbell: 2014 proved to be a time of critical transition in Afghanistan
—–also see Campbell: May 9, 2011: MajGen John Campbell: “But I really do think that as people look back, and they’ll say 2010 was the year in Afghanistan. It’s the year that we finally put more resources in here. We had the right leadership [Petraeus], the right strategy. And I think that was a turning point.” . . . suck, suck
*Dec 15, 2014: Obama: “So, stepping back for a moment, we’re at a turning point [in Iraq and Afghanistan].”
*Nov 6, 2014: NATO’s Stoltenberg: “Next year, we will open a new chapter. The future of Afghanistan will be in Afghan hands.”
*Oct 11, 2014: Kerry: “History will hopefully be able to judge that [the unity government] was a turning point.”
*Jun 16, 2014: Dunford: The next several weeks will be important.
*May 2, 2014: Dempsey Calls Election ‘Turning Point’ for Afghan Forces
* Apr 26, 2014: Voters are hoping the election marks a turning point in the troubled country.
*Mar 27, 2014: Obama: 2014, therefore, is a pivotal year
*Apr 5, 2014: Gateway House: Afghanistan: At a Turning Point
*Apr 2, 2014: Kerry called the elections “a pivotal moment after more than a decade of sacrifice and struggle.”
*Mar 28, 2014: Stoltenberg will take over at a turning point in NATO’s history.
*Nov 15, 2013: Hillary Clinton: ‘Turning point’ for Afghan women
* Oct 19, 2013: Defense Minister Thomas de Maiziere, who remarked in a speech that that Kunduz had been “a turning point not only for the Bundeswehr, but also for German society.”
* Aug 17, 2013: The handover of responsibility on Tuesday marks a significant milestone in the nearly 12-year war and marks a turning point for American and NATO military forces.
* Jun 18, 2013: The handover of responsibility marks a turning point for American and NATO military forces
*May 3, 2013: Kerry: This is a pivotal moment for both Afghanistan and Pakistan
*Mar 8, 2013: Hagel: I believe that we are at a very important moment in this campaign
*Mar 8, 2013: NYPost: [Hagel’s] unannounced visit comes at a turning point in the conflict.
*Dec 12, 2012: Panetta: We’re at a turning point. You know, we’ve been in war for 10 1/2 years, almost 11 years, since 9/11. It’s the longest period of warfare in the history — continuous period of warfare in the history of this country. And we’re now seeing a turning point: brought the war in Iraq to an end. In Afghanistan, where I’ll go next, get a chance to look at the campaign plan that General Allen put in place to ultimately draw down in Afghanistan by the end of 2014.
*Dec 14, 2012: Panetta: In many ways, look, we’re at a turning point.
*Nov 20, 2012: Panetta: We are at a turning point after 10 years of war — over 10 years of war.
*Sep 27, 2012: Panetta: We did turn a very important corner.
*Sep 17, 2012: Panetta: Let me just say a few things. As I’ve said before, I think we’re at a turning point, certainly after 10 years of war,
*June 7, 2012: Panetta: We are, as I said, at a turning point after 10 years of war.
*May 3, 2012: Panetta: 2011 was really a turning point. In 2011 the Taliban was weakened significantly. They couldn’t organize the kind of attacks to regain territory that they had lost, which is something they have done in the past. So they’ve been weakened.
* April 18, 2012: Panetta: As I’ve said, 2011 was a real turning point. It was the first time in five years that we saw a drop in the number of enemy attacks.
* April 17, 2012: Panetta: NATO at ‘Pivotal Point’ in Afghan Mission
*Dec 18, 2012: Leon Panetta cites turning point in Afghanistan war
* December 14, 2011: Panetta was less than 34 miles from the Pakistan border when he told U.S. troops they have reached a turning point in the war.
*Jun 23, 2011: A White House official said Obama hoped that Americans would see Wednesday night’s speech as a “pivot point” in the almost 10-year-old war
* April 21, 2011: Gates: “I think it’s possible that by the end of this year we will have turned a corner just because of the Taliban being driven out, and, more importantly, kept out.”
* May 9, 2011: MajGen John Campbell: “But I really do think that as people look back, and they’ll say 2010 was the year in Afghanistan. It’s the year that we finally put more resources in here. We had the right leadership [Petraus], the right strategy. And I think that was a turning point.”
* March 15, 2011: “FOB DELHI: International troops in Afghanistan face the prospect of a spring offensive by the Taliban every year – but this time the US-led alliance believes it could mark a real turning point in its favour.”
*Jan 10, 2011: A senior administration official, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force Two during the flight to Kabul, said Biden’s surprise visit marks “a pivot point” in the United States’ Afghanistan policy.
* Aug 31, 2010: Nick Clegg said Nato’s military campaign in Afghanistan was “turning the corner” today
* Aug 7, 2010: The British withdrawal from Sangin . . . represents a major turning point, possibly the beginning of the end for British forces in the country.
* Jul 21. 2010: SecState Clinton, at a conference of foreign leaders: “Today was a real turning point!”
* Jun 14, 2010: The discovery of the minerals could certainly represent a significant turning point for Afghanistan
* Mar 31, 2010: NATO sees Kandahar battle as Afghan turning point
* Feb 26, 2010: UK General Sir David Richards: “A year ago the Taliban thought they had us on the run, but now the tables have been turned.”
* Feb 20, 2010: “Western officials believe that a turning point has been reached in the war against the Taliban, with a series of breakthroughs suggesting that the insurgents are on the back foot for the first time since their resurgence four years ago.”
* Jan 28, 2010: Adm. James G. Stavridis: “This complex attack in the capital was repelled entirely by Afghan security forces. That is a signal change. A year ago, it would have been coalition forces that responded to that attack. . .2010 is the year. This is the time.”
* Sep 29, 2009: NPR: A Turning Point For Afghan War, And For Obama
* Sep 9, 2009: Exum: A Grim Turning Point in Afghanistan?
* August 31, 2009: “Monday marks the end of August, a month with both good and bad news out of Afghanistan — and the approach of a key turning point.“
*Aug 31, 2009: TIME: Both elements signal the arrival of a pivot point in Afghanistan, and one that is looming in Washington.
* February 6, 2008: “But the ties that bind NATO are fraying badly – and publicly – over just how much each member state wants to commit to turning Afghanistan around. ‘It’s starting to get to a turning point about what is this alliance about,’ says Michael Williams, director of the transatlantic program at the Royal United Services Institute in London.”
* Aug 16, 2007: Defence Secretary Des Browne said in an interview published Thursday that Britain’s mission in Afghanistan could be at a turning point to bringing increased stability there.
* July 23, 2007: “Taken together these may reflect a turning point in how the war in Afghanistan is to be waged.”
* September 12, 2006: NYTimes: “The Afghan front is at a critical turning point that imperils many of the hard-fought successes of the early phase of the conflict and the prospects for snaring bin Laden.”
* September 22, 2005: “Abdullah Abdullah, Afghanistan’s foreign minister, called the recent parliamentary elections ‘a major turning point‘ on his country’s path to democracy.”
* January 27, 2004: “A statement from U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad called the enactment of the constitution a ‘turning point for the Afghan nation.’”
* February 26, 2003: “The growing aggressiveness by guerrillas is a relief for US forces, who greet the possibility of a real engagement with the Taliban as a possible turning point in the war. ‘We want them to attack us, so we can engage them and destroy them,’ says one Special Forces soldier from the US firebase at Spin Boldak, who took part in the initial firefight that led to Operation Mongoose.
* December 2, 2002: “But in ‘Bush at War’ there’s a glaring omission. Woodward misses the turning point in the war in Afghanistan against the Taliban and al Qaeda forces. It’s as though the most important scene had been left out of a movie, say, where Clark Kent turns into Superman.”
–Early entries by Joshua Foust
My commonsensical assessment? “Spinning like a dervish” – that’s what the US army in Afghanistan is doing after perpetual “turn-arounds” in the last 17 years.
There certainly is a turn-around just around the corner; The US quickly going in circles is presented as proof that we’re getting somewhere. We are: exactly where we were 5, 10 or 15 years ago, and pretty much where we will be 5 or 10 years from now if these guys never wise up.
You evidently didn’t interview anyone at Raytheon, Boeing, Goldman Sachs, etc, etc or you’d know these wars are going exceptionally well.
After all, what could be more important than propping up the fraud commonly known as the stock market ?
Good story. I just couldn’t keep from exposing the driving force behind this insanity or the sociopaths who profit from all this exploitation.
If and when the US finally pulls the plug on this complete disaster, rest assured that there will be no, repeat no, accountability. All of that happy talk by the military will be forgotten, ignored, swept away into the wind.
On to the next disaster, maybe repeating the horrendous decisions or maybe applying a nuance or two; whatever. As we go into the next bloodbath, we can always look back at the bloody carnage of vietnam or iraq or libya or syria or …. and say, it is for democracy or american values or national security and we were sold out by ……??
Are we really that stupid? Yes, we are really that stupid and we keep re-electing the stupidicos who reflect our stupidity.
I expect 17 years of claims of progress without actual victory might have a tiny bit to do with the militaries loss of credibility. It is kind of Xeno’s war we are always getting closer to victory but never actually achieve it.
This isn’t really a “war.” It is an ongoing perpetual project. Like feeding starving Africans, this never ends. Always someone, someplace in Africa said to be starving. So we must “help.”
I would suspect that any “Taliban” leadership that welcomed Osama bin Ladin back in the day is long gone. Dead, exile, badly injured, herding goats. So why is it “we” are fighting them? Gen. MacArthur warned about never fighting a major land war in Asia. He was a pretty good general, yes?
I’d rather be duped into wasting all those tax dollars trying to “help” feed people then to kill them. Just saying.
Those that point out the truth will be labeled “anti-American” or some such rot. Under the guise that the reason for the failure is due to critics “giving aid and comfort to the enemy” . Wash rinse repeat…… again and again and again.