In a move that analysts fear could bring Turkey’s military into a direct confrontation with fellow NATO member the United States, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that he is extending the invasion of northern Syria beyond Afrin District, and that the city of Manbij will be attacked next.
Turkey invaded Afrin over the weekend. The district is the westernmost territory held by the Kurdish YPG, and right on the Turkish border, which has made it a target for some time. Manbij, however, is deeper into Syria, and closer to the rest of YPG territory.
More importantly, Manbij is a city with a US military presence already on the ground. When the Kurds expelled ISIS form Manbij last year, the US put troops there specifically to dissuade Turkey from contesting it, and that’s been a sore spot for Turkey ever since.
Turkish officials are said to believe there is little chance of direct fighting with the US over Manbij, but the fact that they’re willing to take the risk at all is an eye-opener, and suggests Erdogan is more willing to confront the US over their long-standing alliance with the Kurds.
The Turkey-YPG fight leaves the US in a tough spot, with both factions, and the Turkish-backed FSA all US allies. Calls for restraint haven’t done anything, however, and US calls to keep the Turkish invasion “limited” also appear not to be taking effect with the Manbij announcement.
US threw the YPG-kurds under the bus (for the third time since its war against Syria started) as soon as Turkey got there, saying “Turkey has the right to defend themselves”.
But don’t expect that these primitive nomads that wandered into these lands during the 30’s would take note of the hint on how reliable US is as a “partner”.
Next on the line are the SDF cutthroats (consisting of isis mercs and other terrorists of various flavours under “Kurdish ” (US) command) “guarding” US occupied eastern Syria. Landlocked in a mega cauldron of sorts, surrounded by hostile states and militias that have them within striking distance, US is not exactly in a safe spot for its occupation regime.
Faced with the prospect of a war with Turkey who together with Iraq, Iran and Syria are dead set against this second attempt to carve out a second “israel” and a breeding ground for terrorists that will continue to threaten these states, not only Syria, for years to come, US will be forced to drop the SDF and the whole occupation project too. US might as well declare victory and get the F out of this hornets nest where everybody involved, even their owned “allies”, are against them, or face humiliation and many hundreds if not thousands of bodybags.
Kurds made a very bad choice, now they gotta pay for their stupidity.. They made this bed, now go sleep in it…!!!!?! I feel bad for them, but wrong choices are a bitch. A lot of bad things have come their way, this 1 they invited…. Very bad move it seems at this point…!!!
Yes the Kurds that Assad wants on his borders in his country made a bad choice, not the Turks that are invading Syria and are supporting the people who want to overthrow the Russian backed Syrian government. The more you talk the more you expose your hypocritical viewpoints.
The US is there illegally and it needs to leave. The U.S. (read CIA), Israel, and Saudi Arabia caused this mess by backing (monetarily and with weapons) ISIS to overthrow Assad because they are afraid of Iranian influence. The US lost and now it is trying to partition Syria, primarily for Israeli and Saudi benefit but also to curtail spreading Iranian influence in the region. The US has NO business in Syria plain and simple. The Russians are their at the request of the LEGITIMATE Syrian government whether you like it or not. The Russians (and NOT the US) defeated ISIS. You are nothing but a propagandist.
The U.S helped defeat ISIS.
After they were responsible for its very existence. Like al Qaeda in Iraq.
Tillerson:…”We’re very concerned with the situation in Syria. With Turkey, and…”.
Lavrov: “…Really? ….We told you. Go on…”
Tillerson: “The US State Department has urged its NATO ally Turkey to exercise restraint against our proxy ‘Border Force’ and…”
Lavrov: “… Hahahah!!”.
Tillerson: “…and in order to avoid civilian casualties… Sergei??…”.
Lavrov: “HAHAHAH!!!!
Not written by me, I found it in the comments
You actually took the time to type this??? Can someone say loser.
Afrin isn’t secured and His Sultanship wants to go after Manbij. Hmmm.
The Wiki Syrian Civil War map indicates Turkey’s barely entered into Afrin, nibbling from all sides but a thrust from someplace called Hay Ughlu has taken a tiny chain of towns.
Maybe he’s concerned about SDF reinforcements to Manbij; they can’t get to Afrin but they can open up a third front or make Manbij far harder to take in the near future. Maybe’s he’s just talking to make the U.S. nervous. Maybe he’s trying to divert attention from the lack of progress in Afrin.
Don’t see how Turkey has the numbers to really press Manbij even allowing that some of the Afrin periphery assaults would be diversions. Afrin is mountainous and the defender of that kind of terrain always has the advantage, especially if the are locals.
You know Erdogan is serious cause he sent in Ze German tanks this time.
And they are probably the best in the world.
“the US put troops there specifically to dissuade Turkey from contesting it”
Bluff? Called?
Who will blink? I think Turkey sees vital interests, while the US sees much lesser interests. The US interests are not about ISIS, but rather about paying back a faction of the Kurds.
The US has absolutely no excuse for its invasion of Syria. Its unsavory allies need to be abandoned and the USA needs to get out. solve your many domestic problems first.
Hello Rosemerry…
I think this may have been a pre-planned event America made a deal with Russia to create a buffer zone for Assad using the Kurds to create an autonomous region inside Syria with Assad’s approval. This would keep Assad safe from the weapons and Sunni fighters that come through Turkeys borders because remember Assad is a Shiite Muslim supported by Iran and Erdogan is a Sunni Muslim that’s why he helped finance and arm ISIS and the other Sunni Muslims that tried to remove Assad from power. Erdogan knows if this buffer zone full of Kurds was to be created it would be more difficult to send in his proxy force to create conflicts that allow Turkey it’s strategic influence in the Syrian borders that it shares with Turkey. Erdogan wants control of Syrias borders and the region that borders those towns. Assad wants those towns in Syria that border Turkey under Kurdish control because they helped liberate Syria from ISIS and also to help deter the Sunni Muslims that Turkey supports. What’s happening now is Turkey is ethnically cleansing it’s borders installing a Sunni Muslim fighting force inside Syria and is using the guise of fighting the Kurds as the reason to invade. In the end Assad’s buffer zone is pushed farther into Syria, Turkey will have a fighting force inside Syria and this will help deter Irans, Assad’s and Russian influence in the region. America will lose it’s influence inside Syria but, a proxy force full of willing fighters that want Assad removed will replace the Kurds.
US “allies” turning against each other. What, oh what will DC do?
It is a classic. Tribe A which does not have a territory of its own wants a sovereign territory of its own but can only get it by taking it away from tribes B, C, and D (1). Consequence: war.
A more frequent case is when tribe A wants to expand its existing territory at the expense of tribe B (2). That causes wars too.
The upshot is that every territorial tribe can start a war or participate in existing wars to suppress internal weakness because wars always increase the power of central government. Always.
(1) in this case B,C, and D are Turkey, Syria, and Iraq.
(2) Expanding territory can also involve creating new spheres of influence without taking away territory. Example: the cause for the 1870 war between Prussia and France. Or for merely strategic improvements such as the 1939 invasion of Poland by Germany: German tanks could not fly over Poland to attack the Soviet Union.
Wars will never end as long as we remain to be territorial apes. Never.
I am thinking differently. We used to be this way in sll of our dealings many thousands of years ago. Then, people lear how to organize, set rules, and have someone adjudicate. Shamans still do it. Then it evolved into legal systems, that, with all imperfections, weaknesses and occassional breakdowns, make all if our lives simpler. Then there are private rules and regulations, set up by condo associations to insure that the conduct is appropriate for all residents, and commins are fjnanced snd paid for, efc.
There is no reason international arena cannot be subject to some planetary condo rules. The problem is when the powerful and rich on this planet abuse smaller by breaking all existing rules, what do you expect of others? All others must become rule breakers, if they are to protect its own interests. Let us look at the secession. Today, rules of divirce for human beings range from not being allowed, to court cases of various type and duration. Children, property, income — all taken into account. One party cannot take kids, break into residences and take them or other valuables. Cannot just get something by violence. We all know that borders — while absolutrly invaluable to determine accountability for people and property, cannot last forever. Things change. Kids grow up, neighbors fall in live, and want to join their estates. The trurh is, if only some countries agree to the rules of secession — we will not have the absurdity of legal nonsense we have today. We have simultaneously “the right to self-determination”, or “respect for territorial integrity’”. Pick one — and argue till the end of time (or next big war).
What if these countries come up with rules to treat secession as a divorce. Only due to complexity, the period if determination will have to be longer, mych longer. But it needs to start with an application, appointment of a commission, a guardian, and a working group from both parties. Within a period of say 5 years, commission will present findings, based on the input from both sides, and make recommendations on how to proceed. The recommendation can be to not proceed, or to proceed with forming a protectorate, managed by a group of countries, equal njmber recommended by both sudes. Protectorate should not alter sovereignity, but it should start addressing issues of autonomy— local legislation, questions of property, wishes of population, grievances, etc. in fact modeling a future in a neutral way — the future can be independence with good relations between parties, autonomy within the state, or continuation of protectorate. Duration if protectorate needs to be long, at least 50 years, to get generational change, as well as to get the sense if the political maturity for independence. Any military option should disqualify the applicant. And no recognition is given until the grantee accepts all the devisions in property, legal obligations and reimbursements to grantor. Untill grantee accepts all the decisions on granting the use of roads, railroads, ports, electric, water and other utilities, energy, and mutual agreements on the rights of minorities in each country, independence cannot be granted. International courts set up to adjudicate problems can address iutstanding issues. The truth is, when a number of countries accept laws, they can be binding, as a community demands it — no political favorites. These are just some examples what can be accomplished when. STABILITY becomes desirable state by leading powers. If they prefer chsos to stability and development of natural and human potential, fhen we have places like Kosivo. Incapable to be a state and csrry out ibligation, it is now propped up by its patrons, costing them money and reputation, and going nowhere. Independence is not a gift designed to punish the disobedient and reward proxies. Empire of chais cannot be a leader.