As officials had previously indicated, President Trump on Friday announced he is extending the sanctions relief the US is obliged to offer under the P5+1 nuclear deal, and some new unrelated sanctions against Iran have been unveiled. In an attempt to set the stage for another major political battle, he said this would be “the last time.”
The sanctions relief, and by extension US compliance with the P5+1 deal with Iran, will continue for an additional four months, by which time Trump demands that the rest of the world will have dramatically changed the deal to make it more palatable to him.
Trump’s demands include extending the restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear program permanently, and also wants to compel the European nations within the deal to accept US “snap-back” provisions to reimpose sanctions on Iran at any time the US declares them in violation. On top of that, President Trump wants to make clear that Iran’s missiles, even conventional missiles are “inseparable” from the nuclear deal.
All of these changes are almost certainly non-starters, with the rest of the P5+1 long saying they have no intention of trying to renegotiate a nuclear deal that was already hard enough to get done just to satisfy the latest US whim. It does, however, likely mean that in four months we’ll again be facing the question of whether the US intends to withdraw from the deal outright.
Trump has long said he wants to pull out of the deal, but has so far been talked out of it. Iran and the other P4+1 have been in intense talks for months about how they might keep the deal in place without US participation, and many believe they will ultimately be able to do so.
That possibility is likely to be a big deal if the world tries to call Trump’s bluff on the four month ultimatum, as he’s always been inclined to kill the deal, but would look foolish if he tried to kill the deal only to have it continue without US involvement, effectively removing the US from the nations involved in enforcement of the terms.
In short …
1. Iran has to agree to be defenseless, since they don’t have nuclear weapons they have to compensate with tactical weapons. All of their neighbors who don’t have them have been bombed, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
2. So now ALL of the restrictions have to be permanent, not just the enhanced inspection protocols? (I’m certain that it was just an oversight that anywhere / anytime inspections were not mentioned)
3. Nikki Haley, and not the IAEA determines compliance.
What’s not to like, why not make Iran sign the new terms on the USS Missouri?
Iran could agree to every one of those outrageous demands and within 6 months the US would be claiming they violated one of them and demand regime change.
Oh totally. Nikki Haley’s big mouth would be saying something stupid for sure.
Or what happend typically — a new demand is made under excuse that IT WASVREALLY ASSUMED in the agreement. This was the key ingreeient behind Indian treaties, and more recent ones, the constant reinterpretation of Dsyton afreement that ended war in Bosnia. And once it becamechangevthecagreemsnt, clear that there is no way to change it, various iverlords US trusted with implementing it, suddenly discovered something called the “spirit” of Dayton to make changes. It is not much different here — the conventional missile program, never part of the agreement, is now to be included. This has been happening in Korea since the end of Cold War, until Korea decided to go nuclear. US did not take it seriously, spending more time on Israel’s priority, Iran. It will be interesting to see if the agreements reached between North and South will be subject to typical redefinition — or will the US friendly oligarchs stir up the political scene in South Korea. It will be also interesting to watch the attitudes of the oligarchy. Do they owe it now more to China for their prosperity then the US? Slowly, things will get clearer. As for the US giving fhe task to the world — that is a new one. Intentionally or not — the globalism is taken to a new level. The constituency is now the world, tasked by US president. And there will be the whips that will try to get the less loyal to tow the line. Or else, what? So, is the “world” now the authority above Congress? Sunce Congress did not care to do anything, why expect the world to do more? I suspect that Trump believes in the changes in Europe. There is already the globalist Macron in charge in France — the man who knows the art of deception too well. This is the man who gies to Teheran to show his independence from US — to his masses — then litteraly takes the position of US neocons in Iranian misdiles. And in Germany, if uber globalist Schultz gets in, German position will be identical to neicons on Iran. And since the agreement is signed by Security Council + Germany, only China and Russia would object. This is not a far fetched scenario — as France is already on the record. So the idea that if later Trump decides to get out — but other countries stay in — it is US that will get hurt by getting out. Ever ghink why Congress did not act? For anything anti-Iranian they always have plenty of votes. They did not want to do it without getting US allies in board. And of all the new demands — it is the conventional missile program they are after. And they already have all allied vites in Security council
and only need Germany. And if coalition with Schultz is inevitable, Germany will give Trump what he wants. Now, Germany may go back to election, and put things off. One has to keep in mind that in Europe, except a handful of smaller countries — all are run by the same bunch of globalists. Thry do not care about the disposable propped up presidents, as Hollande was before Macron. These disposables are in to a complish one or two objectives, and voters would turn them out. Nust to vote for snother synthetic candidate. Germany is sliding that way. It was forced to accept millions of refugees and migrants — primarily to dilute the unity of native Germans. And to make it more like France, where ine can count on all immigrants and their new generations to vote against “nationalists”, even as the faux liberals or conservatives gradually dismantle the country and its democratic institutions based on national interest. The fear instilled in immigrant population of “nationalism”, is the basis of current political
dynamic in Europe — whether it is outright or bureaucratic resistance to Brexit, loss of LePen in France, and fear of Alternative for Germany. In Germany, immigrants still are not a voting block, and the neocon
type globalism is mostly concentrsted in IT, banking, media and bureucracy. But the German industrialist are the wild card. Trump wins no matter what. If the European allies are hearded back into our sherp pens —- that will be efit US economy. If not, and “the world” dies not listen, he wins over neocons. Their oush in Congress would look rather silly after they tacitly approved the Iran deal this time.
None of this will stop the changes in the Middle East. US position has weakened in every country in the Middle East — in spite of appearances. And that means Israel’s as well. It is a very wrong calculation that attacking Iran would return the lost political fortunes in the Middle East. But the long term picture has never been a strong suit in Israel. Short term gains are all that matters. And as a result, the same methods are applied, ery mistskenly brlieving that a collection of short term tasty nuggets amounts to a long term formula of success. That is to confuse tactics with strategy. US has already lost a great deal following such line of thinking, and in the long run, will hurt Israel as well. Isralbhas no well wishers anywhere in the world. Appart from the end-of-the- world evangelicals. And Trump solit them across the middle by the America First thinking.
Four months is more than enough for all those shithole countries around the world, actually all the countries except the US.
In four months the petro-yuan might be ready for prime time.
Then it’s goodbye petro-dollar…goodbye USA world finance domination.
“Hello, Washington? Your house of cards is on fire…”
Iran’s oil must be kept off the market and Netanyahu must be coddled.
Domestic nuclear power generation is unsafe and should be dismantled worldwide. Why the Iranians would want it at all is stupid on their part. Concerning the advanced missiles, yeah, Iran will never back down on that, and Trump knows this, his initial list of demands will not be accepted, and the U.S. will settle for snap-back provisions, and maybe some additional nuclear restrictions. Nuclear power generation is an ecological armageddon waiting to happen.
My understanding is that Iran wants nuclear power generation for the same reason Saudi Arabia is doing nuclear and solar:
For a long time, both regimes have heavily subsidized electricity and gasoline for their citizens — it may even be 100% for electricity in Saudi Arabia. They’d rather sell the oil on the world market than use it generating that subsidized electricity, but at the same time they can’t cut off the subsidy if they don’t want a revolution. So they’re going for other ways of generating the electricity.
Absolutely true. Although I suspect at least in the case of Iran, the need to master nuclear technoligy for eventual security uses. This I belueve is also the motivator in the case of Turkey and Egypt. Israel’s nukes not under ghe control of IAEA are making regional leaders nervous.
I agree fully. But nuclear technology knowledge is a prerequisite to mastering nuclear weapons technology. Fir as ling as existing nuclear powers di nit give them up — ithers will try to join the club. And it has been oriven that countries thst were invaded were the ones that did not have nuclear deterrent, And considering that US has allies with nuclear weapons — UK, France and Israel, while nuclear powers Russia and China are patrons of Pakistan and India — we already have four nuclear countries in Shanghai Cooperation Organization. But with never ending wars that US is waging across the globe — there is a presdure building up in many regionally stronger countries to get nuclear deterent. The refusal to accept North Korea, and sign peace agreement — prompted North Korean nuclear development. Iran would have been forced to go nuclear, but the involvement of IAEA, Security Council and Germany — resulted in a first ever process for curbing nuclear weapons development.
The key is for the world’s would be hegemon snd other leading nuclear powers to reach an agreement in GLIBAL SECURITY THAT IS INDIVISIBLE. There cannot be security for some, and insecurity for ofhers. But this state of rationality is still far away into the future. For that reason Russia is helping many countries build their nuclear energy plants — to insure that regional leaders do not become vulnerable to any ghrests. Currently cintracted for developing nuclear power plants un Turkey and Egypt. Along with Iran, these are the countries that do not trust Israel.
As we can see, countries like Unfua, that are certainly not on unfriendly terms with US, is deleloping strong long range missile capabilities that can be nuclear armed. Consider the latest advance in the use of Brahmos missile. An adoped version of Russian Sukhoi war plane was fitted with Brahmos missile, and successfully tested. The news may not be frint oage, but this is a first successful test if the kind — all previous ines anywhere in the workd ended up with a damage to the plane. The Brahmos long range missile is a product of Russian and Indian cooperation, named after two rivers, Brahmaputra i Moscow. Russia and China have projects jn Pakistan. This proliferation is durectly due to the global insecurity and the US refusing to accepting limits in nuclear use — such as against a non- nuclear country. This is a game of nuclear quality — against a rising number of nuclear candidates, the quantiry. Let ys hope that reason prevails. But with the mouth if the south reoresenying US in UN, it is hard to see where statesmanship will come from.
Fancy Donald J Trump being made to look foolish!!
Let’s see if the normal humans in other countries can persuade their “leaders” not to give in to the USA, whose behavior and successes in the present century have proved to be a disaster for all except the weapons-makers and Israel, and let the USA be left out of the benefits already flowing from the JCPOA.
I would not be too sure. France’s Macron just visited Iran and already is talking Trjmp language on missiles. There is a tug of war in Germany between true neocon type globalists with Schultz in the lead, and Merkel’s conservatives. Ironically, it is the snti-globalist movement, Alternative for Germany, that caused conservatives to lose votes, while
liberals Schultz type profited! So if a coalition comes about, you can bet on Schultz being against the deal. The only thing that could prevent the outcome is Schultz’s flaming globalism — highlighted in his endeavot to subjugate national institutions to Brussels. The globalists do not care if they ever win any election —they will be nicely provided for in their political afterlife. Their job is to fulfill one or two tasks. Sarkozy was a sucessful example — having pissed of the French public, he returned France into NATO. Then played the negotiator on Ukraine. Merkl was brought in to dismantle growing German-Russian relations under Schreader. But her cautious and slow compliance with globalist goals, and the rising tide of anti-EU sentiment alarmed globalists. So now they operate in Europe strictly on one principle — candidate construction and desposal. Sarkozy was out, Hollande — presumed the opposite, was in. He then accomplished several globalist tasks — primarily in destroying rights of working population, and enhancing system priviledges for globalists. This time it was dicey — as both the left and right were down in oppinion polls. The National Party on the rise. The formula was to quickly discredit candidates of left and right — and bring a solid fake candidate, Macron to the maximum advantage — by destroying Nationalists with the cannard of fascism and racism. The votes of large immigrant community was decisive — and Macron, a total unknown, became the president.
One should never underestimate the power of internationally organized globalist agenda. The only way to counter it is by a trully national idea, that attracts anyone — regarfless of race, religion or origin. The idea that your country is your home. And that you have to be a naster of your home, and our neighbors, must respect our fences, as we do theirs. Globalism uses the contradictions in any society to divide population and make them incapable of recognizing their own interests.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply, and I just read your previous comment as well. You are certainly on the point, and in France Macron is unpredictable on some issues, but won by divide and rule, representing only the rich, as expected. Sarkozy returning to NATO was disgusting, and Hollande the “socialist” just as bad. Reading now about Schroeder in Germany, who seemed good with his antiwar speeches, turned out to be a serpent.
I hope the people in Germany, who according to polls do NOT want US nukes, or anti-Russian sanctions, or lost jobs to cheaper East European countries, are able to stop the rot trying to destroy the Iran deal and much else. Macron cannot be trusted either, and the UK??????
I am sure trump thought of this all on his own, NOT! This is totally NEO-CON policy led by his son-in-law who is connected to the hip of Netanyahu. Iran is not going to go along with this at all and should rightly tell Trump and his neo-con gangsters to shove it. Give Iran a chance which so far they are working within the agreement. But one needs to understand that the gangsters in DC do not like agreements unless there boot is on their necks. What else would explain how a brutal dictatorship who oppresses their people, especially women and attacks their neighboring country Yemen committing a human catastrophe and never get threatened with sanctions or regime change? It is because as long as you service the men and women of DC then none of that matters.
Trump Derangement Syndrome has morphed into Deranged Trump Syndrome.
Israel now has full control of the USA via Electra Complex taking complete control of Trumps trousers.
Who is Trump threatening?
P5+1 is Iran and China, France, Russia, UK, Germany and USA.
Some how I don’t see any country other than maybe the UK (lapdog’s) siding with Americans,
The Hawaii false alarm is totally plausible. I give it a 50% chance there will be a nuclear incident, or “matter”, if you prefer within the next 50 years. Iran could be the one to do it.
Do you know that Iran’s total military budget is $12 billion a year? About four days of the US military budget? That they do not own a single military aircraft less than thirty years old? That they don’t have a single tank less than forty years old? They still operate planes and tanks that were delivered to them by fleeing Iraqis in 1991.
The idea that they are going to do anything is ridiculous.
White man speak with forked tongue…
Actions like this is where the Israel Lobby shows its clout! Israel wants to expand without any opposition.
World gives trump the finger
Trump has his head up his hind end.