After substantial military losses in recent weeks to the Iraqi central government, Kurdish President Massoud Barzani has announced that he will be resigning from his position on November 1.
Barzani has been president of Kurdistan since 2005, and while his term in office technically expired in August of 2015, he has repeatedly extended his time in office, and the announcement means he won’t be extending further.
Barzanis time in power include massive centralizing of power in his position, and that’s going to set the stage for a major shakeup, as the Kurdistan regional parliament looks to shake-up who in the region various powers are delegated to.
Barzani’s ouster was considered a foregone conclusion after the successful independence referendum ended in an Iraqi invasion and major territory losses. Barzani says he intends to continue to fight for independence for Kurdistan.
This is a well orchestrated transition. US tried to oust Barzani for a while now. But he is
the one having the last laugh. Barzani and his popular forces , Perhmerga, were initially the recepients of US, Israeli and British support and were key to ousting Saddam. But relationship soured after US made demands of cooperation with Turkish PKK and erasing borders. Barzani and Peshmerga. then cooperated with Turkey and allowed Turkey to bomb PKK positions in Iraqi Kurdistan. Quite coincidentally — ISIS took Kirkuk and Sinjar. Both strategic, one with energy, another on key route to Syria. It was in the name of saving Yazidis that US went back to Iraq. But in working with Kurds — US favored PKK, and let them take Sinjar. Same happened in Kirkuk. This was to portray Barzani as weak leader, and PKK working with US — strong. Barzani then went for referendum — knowing full well wharveill happen. Iraqi army had no problem with PKK and took
Kirkuk and Sinjsr with not much effort. So now, it is the return to pre-ISIS state with Iraq controling those cities. Barzani is now condemning US for not helping them. PKK is also shown as not much of a force without Peshmerga, and will take blame for the loss of Kirkuk. Negotiations are now under way, and one can be sure that Peshmerga has the ears of Baghdad. While we can never discount the resoursefulness of Israel to stir up the “opposition”, Iraq has an upper hand now.
In Syria, PKK has an upper hand — YPG is PKK, and other parties marginalized. Now PKK branch in Syria is occupying Raqqa, not liberating — according to Syrian government. Up until now, Damascus did not criticize Kurds. But now oressure will mount on Afrin Kurds to drop relationship with YPG. I would not be surprised at all if Turkey attempts to take Manbij. US promised to Turkey that YPG was going to withdraw — more then a year ago. US will then have to fight Turkey to orotect YPG — and that will not make sense. But if not — Turkey will chase them to Raqqa -/ and llocals would be delighted. Kurds acted as occuoiers, setting up school cutticulum to include Kurdish. It will be interesting to see if PKK will be supported in Syria against Turkish objections. Unless PKK in Turkey choses to mount an offensive at this time. It will distract Turkey from Syrian PKK. As all of YPG offices carry pictures of Turkish jailed PKK leader — they are not hiding their affiliation — and Turkey has to question US podition on the issue — seriously.
Good help is so hard to find.
Its been reported that Iranian Major-General Qessam Soleimani was behind the fall Kukirk and Iraqi Kurdistan. That would explain why the U.S. was so hot for Iran to leave Iraq.
Soleimani is reputed to be the military-strategic genius behind Iraq’s battlefield and diplomatic successes.
It is possible. But somehow I
personally doubt heroic versions of personality alone in history, and believe more in a convergence of circumstances, trends, public understanding of threats, benefits, enemies and friends in need. After now 100 years of experience with the Western world ever since the collapse of Ottoman empire, the Middle East region has mentally and emotionally moved on. At this point, nobidy any more cares what is being said and who sats it. Anything coming from the West is automatically discounted or interpreted in a worst possible way. These are the circumstances where anyone who unapologetically confronts Western narrative will be respected, as it speaks to their own view of the world.
But what happened in Kirkuk and Sinjar is no mistery. The so called opposition (Gorran) embodied in PKK has held Kirkuk and Sinjar. In Kirkuk,there were Peshmerga following the last ISIS attempted incursion — but seeing that PKK folded immediatelly in front of Iraqi advance, got the order to withdraw.
But in Sinjar — things are very clear. US has liberated Sinjar cooperating with both — PKK and Peshmerga. But then told Peshmerga to stay out, while PKK was to take and occupy the town. Yazidi were not invited back. This snub was well publicized by Barzani — nothing was hidden. Turkey took a dim view of installing PKK in a sensitive geographic location, allowing PKK to connect from Iraq to Syria. But PKK without Peshmerga are no match for Iraqi army. Humanitarians should be happy to learn that poor Yazidi are finally allowed to go home, and US mission in Iraq — complete. Not that anyone remembers the narratives that justify interventions. They have a very limited shelf life here.
But in Iraq, it is different. They remember all the stories, promisses, demands and ultimatums. And now, Kurds. The divisions among Kurds will now come to fore, as powerful leader steps down. I somehow doubt that he did not know the outcome of the referendum gambit. He called the referendum to sideline PKK, knowing the reaction. He knew that PKK without US backing was no match for Iraqi army. Peshmerga withdrew immediatelly. Kirkuk was not part of Kurdish region prior to ISIS, and I do not think Peshmerga cares to occupy the town where only one third of population are Kurds — and oppress others.
There is no doubt that Kurds will have to asses their situation, and that is not without risk. Barzani made sure to blame US for abandoning them. Made sure everyone knows how PKK folded in Kirkuk and Sinjar. These are potentially difficult times. It all depends on the ability to come to terms with Iraq, and prevent PKK to be a disruptive force. I can see PKK — soecially knowing their mentors’ attitudes — try subterfuge and internal strife, in hope of gaining upper hand, but the chances of sucess are not high. Already, Kurds are being angry at the disrespect shown to their now retired leader. Given the convergence in the region — not a good time for fishing expeditions in defence of “poor”. PKK.
But the cautinary note must be remembered. Turkish PKK has a potential for infiltrating both Syria and Iraq — as they have already done. This may be the main reason for Iraq asking for border control with Turkey, Syria and Iran.
This is kind of a sad situation for the Kurds . As I feel they have more worked for justice and freedom than the other mid eastern Muslims in their area . It looks like everybody is turning their back on the Kurds again when they are not needed .for fighting extreme evil . Extreme evil always seems to find protection in this world .
How come every picture shows him drying his just-washed hair?
Good riddance. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.
Power to the PKK!