Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that his forces, which recently entered Syria’s Idlib Province to facilitate a safe zone, have “largely completed” their mission.
It’s unclear exactly what that means in context, since the mission was supposed to include both separating al-Qaeda from the rest of the rebels and monitoring an ongoing ceasefire under the Astana deal. The ceasefire monitoring is meant to lead to eventual peace talks, and doesn’t seem to be the sort of thing that would be almost over.
Instead of trying to keep the ceasefire in place, however, Erdogan suggested that Turkey might quickly shift priority toward picking fights with the Kurdish YPG in the Afrin District, saying that Turkey could “suddenly” hit the region one night if they wanted.
While that’s not in keeping with the de-escalation effort, at Turkey’s behest the Kurds are not allowed to be part of the ceasefire anyhow, so attacking them wouldn’t be a violation of the ceasefire from Turkey’s perspective.
These are just threats. Afrin is in a bind. Kibani Kurds are US allies, while Afrin could not join as Jarabulus-Al-Bab corridor kept them isolated. Being in Idlib — they need to decide. If they accept Damascus rule —problem solved, and Turkey will focus on Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (Al-Nusra Front). But if Afrin keeps its options open to join some form of independence aling with US supported Kobane YPG — then it is a threat to Turkey. YPG is PKK. Many YOG fighters are from Turkey. Turkey will not accept any form of independence for Syrian Kurds. Better midel may be Iraq — where a compromise between Kurds and Baghdad is likely.
This is why Turkey is waiting. This is why Damascus is emitting noises against Turkey, being Afrin Kurds protector. But it is a game — neither Damascus nor Turkey will
Allow nation building ar their expense.